Modeling Human Mobility Entropy as a Function of Spatial and Temporal Quantizations

The knowledge of human mobility is an integral component of several different branches of research and planning, including delay tolerant network routing, cellular network planning, disease prevention, and urban planning. The uncertainty associated with a person's movement plays a central role in movement predictability studies. The uncertainty can be quantified in a succinct manner using entropy rate, which is based on the information theoretic entropy. The entropy rate is usually calculated from past mobility traces. While the uncertainty, and therefore, the entropy rate depend on the human behavior, the entropy rate is not invariant to spatial resolution and sampling interval employed to collect mobility traces. The entropy rate of a person is a manifestation of the observable features in the person's mobility traces. Like entropy rate, these features are also dependent on spatio-temporal quantization. Different mobility studies are carried out using different spatio-temporal quantization, which can obscure the behavioral differences of the study populations. But these behavioral differences are important for population-specific planning. The goal of dissertation is to develop a theoretical model that will address this shortcoming of mobility studies by separating parameters pertaining to human behavior from the spatial and temporal parameters

A hybrid analysis of LBSN data to early detect anomalies in crowd dynamics

Undoubtedly, Location-based Social Networks (LBSNs) provide an interesting source of geo-located data that we have previously used to obtain patterns of the dynamics of crowds throughout urban areas. According to our previous results, activity in LBSNs reflects the real activity in the city. Therefore, unexpected behaviors in the social media activity are a trustful evidence of unexpected changes of the activity in the city. In this paper we introduce a hybrid solution to early detect these changes based on applying a combination of two approaches, the use of entropy analysis and clustering techniques, on the data gathered from LBSNs. In particular, we have performed our experiments over a data set collected from Instagram for seven months in New York City, obtaining promising results.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad | Ref. TEC2014-54335-C4-2-RMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad | Ref. TEC2014-54335-C4-3-RAgencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. TEC2017-84197-C4-2-RAgencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. TEC2017-84197-C4-3-

A hybrid analysis of LBSN data to early detect anomalies in crowd dynamics

Undoubtedly, Location-based Social Networks (LBSNs) provide an interesting source of geo-located data that we have previously used to obtain patterns of the dynamics of crowds throughout urban areas. According to our previous results, activity in LBSNs reflects the real activity in the city. Therefore, unexpected behaviors in the social media activity are a trustful evidence of unexpected changes of the activity in the city. In this paper we introduce a hybrid solution to early detect these changes based on applying a combination of two approaches, the use of entropy analysis and clustering techniques, on the data gathered from LBSNs. In particular, we have performed our experiments over a data set collected from Instagram for seven months in New York City, obtaining promising results.This work is funded by: the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the Galician Regional Government under agreement for funding the Atlantic Research Center for Information and Communication Technologies (AtlantTIC), Spain, the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness under the National Science Program (TEC2014-54335-C4-3-R, TEC2014-54335-C4-2-R, TEC2017-84197-C4-3-R and TEC2017-84197-C4-2-R), and by the Madrid Regional Government eMadrid Excellence Network, Spain (S2013/ICE-2715)

INRISCO: INcident monitoRing in Smart COmmunities

Major advances in information and communication technologies (ICTs) make citizens to be considered as sensors in motion. Carrying their mobile devices, moving in their connected vehicles or actively participating in social networks, citizens provide a wealth of information that, after properly processing, can support numerous applications for the benefit of the community. In the context of smart communities, the INRISCO [1] proposal intends for (i) the early detection of abnormal situations in cities (i.e., incidents), (ii) the analysis of whether, according to their impact, those incidents are really adverse for the community; and (iii) the automatic actuation by dissemination of appropriate information to citizens and authorities. Thus, INRISCO will identify and report on incidents in traffic (jam, accident) or public infrastructure (e.g., works, street cut), the occurrence of specific events that affect other citizens' life (e.g., demonstrations, concerts), or environmental problems (e.g., pollution, bad weather). It is of particular interest to this proposal the identification of incidents with a social and economic impact, which affects the quality of life of citizens.This work was supported in part by the Spanish Government through the projects INRISCO under Grant TEC2014-54335-C4-1-R, Grant TEC2014-54335-C4-2-R, Grant TEC2014-54335-C4-3-R, and Grant TEC2014-54335-C4-4-R, in part by the MAGOS under Grant TEC2017-84197-C4-1-R, Grant TEC2017-84197-C4-2-R, and Grant TEC2017-84197-C4-3-R, in part by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), and in part by the Galician Regional Government under agreement for funding the Atlantic Research Center for Information and Communication Technologies (AtlantTIC)

Discovering user mobility and activity in smart lighting environments

"Smart lighting" environments seek to improve energy efficiency, human productivity and health by combining sensors, controls, and Internet-enabled lights with emerging “Internet-of-Things” technology. Interesting and potentially impactful applications involve adaptive lighting that responds to individual occupants' location, mobility and activity. In this dissertation, we focus on the recognition of user mobility and activity using sensing modalities and analytical techniques. This dissertation encompasses prior work using body-worn inertial sensors in one study, followed by smart-lighting inspired infrastructure sensors deployed with lights. The first approach employs wearable inertial sensors and body area networks that monitor human activities with a user's smart devices. Real-time algorithms are developed to (1) estimate angles of excess forward lean to prevent risk of falls, (2) identify functional activities, including postures, locomotion, and transitions, and (3) capture gait parameters. Two human activity datasets are collected from 10 healthy young adults and 297 elder subjects, respectively, for laboratory validation and real-world evaluation. Results show that these algorithms can identify all functional activities accurately with a sensitivity of 98.96% on the 10-subject dataset, and can detect walking activities and gait parameters consistently with high test-retest reliability (p-value < 0.001) on the 297-subject dataset. The second approach leverages pervasive "smart lighting" infrastructure to track human location and predict activities. A use case oriented design methodology is considered to guide the design of sensor operation parameters for localization performance metrics from a system perspective. Integrating a network of low-resolution time-of-flight sensors in ceiling fixtures, a recursive 3D location estimation formulation is established that links a physical indoor space to an analytical simulation framework. Based on indoor location information, a label-free clustering-based method is developed to learn user behaviors and activity patterns. Location datasets are collected when users are performing unconstrained and uninstructed activities in the smart lighting testbed under different layout configurations. Results show that the activity recognition performance measured in terms of CCR ranges from approximately 90% to 100% throughout a wide range of spatio-temporal resolutions on these location datasets, insensitive to the reconfiguration of environment layout and the presence of multiple users.2017-02-17T00:00:00

Human Mobility and Application Usage Prediction Algorithms for Mobile Devices

Mobile devices such as smartphones and smart watches are ubiquitous companions of humans’ daily life. Since 2014, there are more mobile devices on Earth than humans. Mobile applications utilize sensors and actuators of these devices to support individuals in their daily life. In particular, 24% of the Android applications leverage users’ mobility data. For instance, this data allows applications to understand which places an individual typically visits. This allows providing her with transportation information, location-based advertisements, or to enable smart home heating systems. These and similar scenarios require the possibility to access the Internet from everywhere and at any time. To realize these scenarios 83% of the applications available in the Android Play Store require the Internet to operate properly and therefore access it from everywhere and at any time. Mobile applications such as Google Now or Apple Siri utilize human mobility data to anticipate where a user will go next or which information she is likely to access en route to her destination. However, predicting human mobility is a challenging task. Existing mobility prediction solutions are typically optimized a priori for a particular application scenario and mobility prediction task. There is no approach that allows for automatically composing a mobility prediction solution depending on the underlying prediction task and other parameters. This approach is required to allow mobile devices to support a plethora of mobile applications running on them, while each of the applications support its users by leveraging mobility predictions in a distinct application scenario. Mobile applications rely strongly on the availability of the Internet to work properly. However, mobile cellular network providers are struggling to provide necessary cellular resources. Mobile applications generate a monthly average mobile traffic volume that ranged between 1 GB in Asia and 3.7 GB in North America in 2015. The Ericsson Mobility Report Q1 2016 predicts that by the end of 2021 this mobile traffic volume will experience a 12-fold increase. The consequences are higher costs for both providers and consumers and a reduced quality of service due to congested mobile cellular networks. Several countermeasures can be applied to cope with these problems. For instance, mobile applications apply caching strategies to prefetch application content by predicting which applications will be used next. However, existing solutions suffer from two major shortcomings. They either (1) do not incorporate traffic volume information into their prefetching decisions and thus generate a substantial amount of cellular traffic or (2) require a modification of mobile application code. In this thesis, we present novel human mobility and application usage prediction algorithms for mobile devices. These two major contributions address the aforementioned problems of (1) selecting a human mobility prediction model and (2) prefetching of mobile application content to reduce cellular traffic. First, we address the selection of human mobility prediction models. We report on an extensive analysis of the influence of temporal, spatial, and phone context data on the performance of mobility prediction algorithms. Building upon our analysis results, we present (1) SELECTOR – a novel algorithm for selecting individual human mobility prediction models and (2) MAJOR – an ensemble learning approach for human mobility prediction. Furthermore, we introduce population mobility models and demonstrate their practical applicability. In particular, we analyze techniques that focus on detection of wrong human mobility predictions. Among these techniques, an ensemble learning algorithm, called LOTUS, is designed and evaluated. Second, we present EBC – a novel algorithm for prefetching mobile application content. EBC’s goal is to reduce cellular traffic consumption to improve application content freshness. With respect to existing solutions, EBC presents novel techniques (1) to incorporate different strategies for prefetching mobile applications depending on the available network type and (2) to incorporate application traffic volume predictions into the prefetching decisions. EBC also achieves a reduction in application launch time to the cost of a negligible increase in energy consumption. Developing human mobility and application usage prediction algorithms requires access to human mobility and application usage data. To this end, we leverage in this thesis three publicly available data set. Furthermore, we address the shortcomings of these data sets, namely, (1) the lack of ground-truth mobility data and (2) the lack of human mobility data at short-term events like conferences. We contribute with JK2013 and UbiComp Data Collection Campaign (UbiDCC) two human mobility data sets that address these shortcomings. We also develop and make publicly available a mobile application called LOCATOR, which was used to collect our data sets. In summary, the contributions of this thesis provide a step further towards supporting mobile applications and their users. With SELECTOR, we contribute an algorithm that allows optimizing the quality of human mobility predictions by appropriately selecting parameters. To reduce the cellular traffic footprint of mobile applications, we contribute with EBC a novel approach for prefetching of mobile application content by leveraging application usage predictions. Furthermore, we provide insights about how and to what extent wrong and uncertain human mobility predictions can be detected. Lastly, with our mobile application LOCATOR and two human mobility data sets, we contribute practical tools for researchers in the human mobility prediction domain

Data based identification and prediction of nonlinear and complex dynamical systems

We thank Dr. R. Yang (formerly at ASU), Dr. R.-Q. Su (formerly at ASU), and Mr. Zhesi Shen for their contributions to a number of original papers on which this Review is partly based. This work was supported by ARO under Grant No. W911NF-14-1-0504. W.-X. Wang was also supported by NSFC under Grants No. 61573064 and No. 61074116, as well as by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, Beijing Nova Programme.Peer reviewedPostprin

Treatment Effect Estimation from Observational Network Data using Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting and Machine Learning

Causal inference methods for treatment effect estimation usually assume independent experimental units. However, this assumption is often questionable because experimental units may interact. We develop augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) for estimation and inference of causal treatment effects on dependent observational data. Our framework covers very general cases of spillover effects induced by units interacting in networks. We use plugin machine learning to estimate infinite-dimensional nuisance components leading to a consistent treatment effect estimator that converges at the parametric rate and asymptotically follows a Gaussian distribution. We apply our AIPW method to the Swiss StudentLife Study data to investigate the effect of hours spent studying on exam performance accounting for the students' social network