Analysis of signalling pathways using continuous time Markov chains

We describe a quantitative modelling and analysis approach for signal transduction networks. We illustrate the approach with an example, the RKIP inhibited ERK pathway [CSK+03]. Our models are high level descriptions of continuous time Markov chains: proteins are modelled by synchronous processes and reactions by transitions. Concentrations are modelled by discrete, abstract quantities. The main advantage of our approach is that using a (continuous time) stochastic logic and the PRISM model checker, we can perform quantitative analysis such as what is the probability that if a concentration reaches a certain level, it will remain at that level thereafter? or how does varying a given reaction rate affect that probability? We also perform standard simulations and compare our results with a traditional ordinary differential equation model. An interesting result is that for the example pathway, only a small number of discrete data values is required to render the simulations practically indistinguishable

Trend-based analysis of a population model of the AKAP scaffold protein

We formalise a continuous-time Markov chain with multi-dimensional discrete state space model of the AKAP scaffold protein as a crosstalk mediator between two biochemical signalling pathways. The analysis by temporal properties of the AKAP model requires reasoning about whether the counts of individuals of the same type (species) are increasing or decreasing. For this purpose we propose the concept of stochastic trends based on formulating the probabilities of transitions that increase (resp. decrease) the counts of individuals of the same type, and express these probabilities as formulae such that the state space of the model is not altered. We define a number of stochastic trend formulae (e.g. weakly increasing, strictly increasing, weakly decreasing, etc.) and use them to extend the set of state formulae of Continuous Stochastic Logic. We show how stochastic trends can be implemented in a guarded-command style specification language for transition systems. We illustrate the application of stochastic trends with numerous small examples and then we analyse the AKAP model in order to characterise and show causality and pulsating behaviours in this biochemical system

Analysis of signalling pathways using the prism model checker

We describe a new modelling and analysis approach for signal transduction networks in the presence of incomplete data. We illustrate the approach with an example, the RKIP inhibited ERK pathway [1]. Our models are based on high level descriptions of continuous time Markov chains: reactions are modelled as synchronous processes and concentrations are modelled by discrete, abstract quantities. The main advantage of our approach is that using a (continuous time) stochastic logic and the PRISM model checker, we can perform quantitative analysis of queries such as if a concentration reaches a certain level, will it remain at that level thereafter? We also perform standard simulations and compare our results with a traditional ordinary differential equation model. An interesting result is that for the example pathway, only a small number of discrete data values is required to render the simulations practically indistinguishable

Modelling the influence of RKIP on the ERK signalling pathway using the stochastic process algebra PEPA

This paper examines the influence of the Raf Kinase Inhibitor Protein (RKIP) on the Extracellular signal Regulated Kinase (ERK) signalling pathway [5] through modelling in a Markovian process algebra, PEPA [11]. Two models of the system are presented, a reagent-centric view and a pathway-centric view. The models capture functionality at the level of subpathway, rather than at a molecular level. Each model affords a different perspective of the pathway and analysis. We demonstrate the two models to be formally equivalent using the timing-aware bisimulation defined over PEPA models and discuss the biological significance

Probabilistic model checking of complex biological pathways

Probabilistic model checking is a formal verification technique that has been successfully applied to the analysis of systems from a broad range of domains, including security and communication protocols, distributed algorithms and power management. In this paper we illustrate its applicability to a complex biological system: the FGF (Fibroblast Growth Factor) signalling pathway. We give a detailed description of how this case study can be modelled in the probabilistic model checker PRISM, discussing some of the issues that arise in doing so, and show how we can thus examine a rich selection of quantitative properties of this model. We present experimental results for the case study under several different scenarios and provide a detailed analysis, illustrating how this approach can be used to yield a better understanding of the dynamics of the pathway

Stronger computational modelling of signalling pathways using both continuous and discrete-state methods

Starting from a biochemical signalling pathway model expresses in a process algebra enriched with quantitative information, we automatically derive both continuous-space and discrete-space representations suitable for numerical evaluation. We compare results obtained using approximate stochastic simulation thereby exposing a flaw in the use of the differentiation procedure producing misleading results

A Monte Carlo model checker for probabilistic LTL with numerical constraints

We define the syntax and semantics of a new temporal logic called probabilistic LTL with numerical constraints (PLTLc). We introduce an efficient model checker for PLTLc properties. The efficiency of the model checker is through approximation using Monte Carlo sampling of finite paths through the model’s state space (simulation outputs) and parallel model checking of the paths. Our model checking method can be applied to any model producing quantitative output – continuous or stochastic, including those with complex dynamics and those with an infinite state space. Furthermore, our offline approach allows the analysis of observed (real-life) behaviour traces. We find in this paper that PLTLc properties with constraints over free variables can replace full model checking experiments, resulting in a significant gain in efficiency. This overcomes one disadvantage of model checking experiments which is that the complexity depends on system granularity and number of variables, and quickly becomes infeasible. We focus on models of biochemical networks, and specifically in this paper on intracellular signalling pathways; however our method can be applied to a wide range of biological as well as technical systems and their models. Our work contributes to the emerging field of synthetic biology by proposing a rigourous approach for the structured formal engineering of biological systems

A Study of the PDGF Signaling Pathway with PRISM

In this paper, we apply the probabilistic model checker PRISM to the analysis of a biological system -- the Platelet-Derived Growth Factor (PDGF) signaling pathway, demonstrating in detail how this pathway can be analyzed in PRISM. We show that quantitative verification can yield a better understanding of the PDGF signaling pathway.Comment: In Proceedings CompMod 2011, arXiv:1109.104

Modelling and analysis of biochemical signalling pathway cross-talk

Signalling pathways are abstractions that help life scientists structure the coordination of cellular activity. Cross-talk between pathways accounts for many of the complex behaviours exhibited by signalling pathways and is often critical in producing the correct signal-response relationship. Formal models of signalling pathways and cross-talk in particular can aid understanding and drive experimentation. We define an approach to modelling based on the concept that a pathway is the (synchronising) parallel composition of instances of generic modules (with internal and external labels). Pathways are then composed by (synchronising) parallel composition and renaming; different types of cross-talk result from different combinations of synchronisation and renaming. We define a number of generic modules in PRISM and five types of cross-talk: signal flow, substrate availability, receptor function, gene expression and intracellular communication. We show that Continuous Stochastic Logic properties can both detect and distinguish the types of cross-talk. The approach is illustrated with small examples and an analysis of the cross-talk between the TGF-b/BMP, WNT and MAPK pathways

PRISM: a tool for automatic verification of probabilistic systems

Probabilistic model checking is an automatic formal verification technique for analysing quantitative properties of systems which exhibit stochastic behaviour. PRISM is a probabilistic model checking tool which has already been successfully deployed in a wide range of application domains, from real-time communication protocols to biological signalling pathways. The tool has recently undergone a significant amount of development. Major additions include facilities to manually explore models, Monte-Carlo discrete-event simulation techniques for approximate model analysis (including support for distributed simulation) and the ability to compute cost- and reward-based measures, e.g. "the expected energy consumption of the system before the first failure occurs". This paper presents an overview of all the main features of PRISM. More information can be found on the website: www.cs.bham.ac.uk/~dxp/prism