On Probabilistic Parallel Programs with Process Creation and Synchronisation

We initiate the study of probabilistic parallel programs with dynamic process creation and synchronisation. To this end, we introduce probabilistic split-join systems (pSJSs), a model for parallel programs, generalising both probabilistic pushdown systems (a model for sequential probabilistic procedural programs which is equivalent to recursive Markov chains) and stochastic branching processes (a classical mathematical model with applications in various areas such as biology, physics, and language processing). Our pSJS model allows for a possibly recursive spawning of parallel processes; the spawned processes can synchronise and return values. We study the basic performance measures of pSJSs, especially the distribution and expectation of space, work and time. Our results extend and improve previously known results on the subsumed models. We also show how to do performance analysis in practice, and present two case studies illustrating the modelling power of pSJSs.Comment: This is a technical report accompanying a TACAS'11 pape

A tutorial on recursive models for analyzing and predicting path choice behavior

The problem at the heart of this tutorial consists in modeling the path choice behavior of network users. This problem has been extensively studied in transportation science, where it is known as the route choice problem. In this literature, individuals' choice of paths are typically predicted using discrete choice models. This article is a tutorial on a specific category of discrete choice models called recursive, and it makes three main contributions: First, for the purpose of assisting future research on route choice, we provide a comprehensive background on the problem, linking it to different fields including inverse optimization and inverse reinforcement learning. Second, we formally introduce the problem and the recursive modeling idea along with an overview of existing models, their properties and applications. Third, we extensively analyze illustrative examples from different angles so that a novice reader can gain intuition on the problem and the advantages provided by recursive models in comparison to path-based ones

First-Order Decomposition Trees

Lifting attempts to speed up probabilistic inference by exploiting symmetries in the model. Exact lifted inference methods, like their propositional counterparts, work by recursively decomposing the model and the problem. In the propositional case, there exist formal structures, such as decomposition trees (dtrees), that represent such a decomposition and allow us to determine the complexity of inference a priori. However, there is currently no equivalent structure nor analogous complexity results for lifted inference. In this paper, we introduce FO-dtrees, which upgrade propositional dtrees to the first-order level. We show how these trees can characterize a lifted inference solution for a probabilistic logical model (in terms of a sequence of lifted operations), and make a theoretical analysis of the complexity of lifted inference in terms of the novel notion of lifted width for the tree

PReMo : An Analyzer for P robabilistic Re cursive Mo dels

This paper describes PReMo, a tool for analyzing Recursive Markov Chains, and their controlled/game extensions: (1-exit) Recursive Markov Decision Processes and Recursive Simple Stochastic Games