Cross-Sectoral Variation in The Volatility of Plant-Level Idiosyncratic Shocks

We estimate the volatility of plant–level idiosyncratic shocks in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Our measure of volatility is the variation in Revenue Total Factor Productivity which is not explained by either industry– or economy–wide factors, or by establishments’ characteristics. Consistent with previous studies, we find that idiosyncratic shocks are much larger than aggregate random disturbances, accounting for about 80% of the overall uncertainty faced by plants. The extent of cross–sectoral variation in the volatility of shocks is remarkable. Plants in the most volatile sector are subject to about six times as much idiosyncratic uncertainty as plants in the least volatile. We provide evidence suggesting that idiosyncratic risk is higher in industries where the extent of creative destruction is likely to be greater.

Cross–Sectoral Variation in Firm–Level Idiosyncratic Risk

We estimate firm–level idiosyncratic risk in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Our proxy for risk is the volatility of the portion of growth in sales or TFP which is not explained by either industry– or economy–wide factors, or firm characteristics systematically associated with growth itself. We find that idiosyncratic risk accounts for about 90% of the overall uncertainty faced by firms. The extent of cross–sectoral variation in idiosyncratic risk is remarkable. Firms in the most volatile sector are subject to at least three times as much uncertainty as firms in the least volatile. Our evidence indicates that idiosyncratic risk is higher in industries where the extent of creative destruction is likely to be greater.Schumpeterian Competition, Creative Destruction, Product Turnover, R&D Intensity, Investment–Specific Technological Change

A DYNAMIC MODEL OF VERTICAL INTEGRATION FOR THE AMERICAN PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY

The focus of this research is to learn about the factors that influence the decision of a manufacturing firm to vertically integrate into the production of its input. The American paper industry has a feature that makes it particularly suitable for this purpose: over the years paper mills of apparently similar characteristics have made different decisions with regards to their integration status. This work draws on the insight that there must be some unobserved mill characteristic that drives the decision process for a mill. Mills´ choices of whether to exit the industry, and with regards to their integration status when they choose to stay in operation, depend on their productivity. This generates selection and simultaneity biases in a reduced form estimation. In order to deal with these issues, I propose a dynamic model in the spirit of Olley and Pakes (1996). This approach not only takes care of the estimation biases, but also allows me to learn about the unobserved characteristics of the firms in my data, and to use them to determine which firms vertically integrate and which firms do not. In addition, the model I propose allows me to learn about how vertical integration affects productivity and mill´s entry and exit decisions.Vertical Integration

Price setting in the euro area: some stylised facts from individual producer price data

This paper documents producer price setting in 6 countries of the euro area: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Belgium and Portugal. It collects evidence from available studies on each of those countries and also provides new evidence. These studies use monthly producer price data. The following five stylised facts emerge consistently across countries. First, producer prices change infrequently : each month around 21% of prices change. Second, there is substantial cross-sector heterogeneity in the frequency of price changes: prices change very often in the energy sector, less often in food and intermediate goods and least often in nondurable non- food and durable goods. Third, countries have a similar ranking of industries in terms of frequency of price changes. Fourth, there is no evidence of downward nominal rigidity: price changes are for about 45% decreases and 55% increases. Fifth, price changes are sizeable compared to the inflation rate. The paper also examines the factors driving producer price changes. It finds that costs structure, competition, seasonality, inflation and attractive pricing all play a role in driving producer price changes. In addition producer prices tend to be more flexible than consumer prices. --Price-setting,producer prices

Human-Robot Collaboration in Automotive Assembly

In the past decades, automation in the automobile production line has significantly increased the efficiency and quality of automotive manufacturing. However, in the automotive assembly stage, most tasks are still accomplished manually by human workers because of the complexity and flexibility of the tasks and the high dynamic unconstructed workspace. This dissertation is proposed to improve the level of automation in automotive assembly by human-robot collaboration (HRC). The challenges that eluded the automation in automotive assembly including lack of suitable collaborative robotic systems for the HRC, especially the compact-size high-payload mobile manipulators; teaching and learning frameworks to enable robots to learn the assembly tasks, and how to assist humans to accomplish assembly tasks from human demonstration; task-driving high-level robot motion planning framework to make the trained robot intelligently and adaptively assist human in automotive assembly tasks. The technical research toward this goal has resulted in several peer-reviewed publications. Achievements include: 1) A novel collaborative lift-assist robot for automotive assembly; 2) Approaches of vision-based robot learning of placing tasks from human demonstrations in assembly; 3) Robot learning of assembly tasks and assistance from human demonstrations using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN); 4) Robot learning of assembly tasks and assistance from human demonstrations using Task Constraint-Guided Inverse Reinforcement Learning (TC-IRL); 5) Robot learning of assembly tasks from non-expert demonstrations via Functional Objective-Oriented Network (FOON); 6) Multi-model sampling-based motion planning for trajectory optimization with execution consistency in manufacturing contexts. The research demonstrates the feasibility of a parallel mobile manipulator, which introduces novel conceptions to industrial mobile manipulators for smart manufacturing. By exploring the Robot Learning from Demonstration (RLfD) with both AI-based and model-based approaches, the research also improves robots’ learning capabilities on collaborative assembly tasks for both expert and non-expert users. The research on robot motion planning and control in the dissertation facilitates the safety and human trust in industrial robots in HRC

Influencing process and cultural change in the aerospace industry

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; and, (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1999.Includes bibliographical references (p. 69).Aerospace equipment manufacturers have expressed considerable frustration with the lack of success in implementing process and cultural change initiatives within their organizations. The objective of this report is to offer more successful methods of designing and executing change initiatives in the aerospace industry. This report provides an analysis of three particular change initiatives in execution at Pratt&Whitney Aircraft at the time of this writing. The successes and failures of three initiatives are analyzed and compared in the context of the major barriers to change faced by the industry. The arguments made in the discussion and in the following conclusions suggest that success depends on the application of entrepreneurial marketing and negotiations theories: 1. Solving a quantifiable, pressing source of pain for the customer 2. Results selling by providing a solution versus solely a technology 3. Focusing on a single customer with the budget and power to employ the new technology 4. Understanding the positions and interests of the parties involved 5. Establishing a bargaining range when faced with resistance 6. Enabling a give and take of concessions and tradeoffs in the bargaining process.by Adam B. Kohorn.S.M

Advances in production management systems

The two volumes IFIP AICT 397 and 398 constitute the thoroughly refereed post-conference proceedings of the International IFIP WG 5.7 Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems, APMS 2012, held in Rhodes, Greece, in September 2012. The 182 revised full papers were carefully reviewed and selected for inclusion in the two volumes. They are organized in 6 parts: sustainabilitydesign, manufacturing and production managementhuman factors, learning and innovationICT and emerging technologies in production managementproduct and asset lifecycle managementand services, supply chains and operation

A Study in Three Practical Management Science Problems

This study of practical problems in Management Science (MS) describes novel mathematical models for three different decision settings. It addresses questions of: (a) what optimal route should be taken through a time-windows and topographically complex network; (b) what optimal sequencing of scheduled surgeries best coordinates flow of patients through central recovery; and (c) what prices should be charged and what stock amounts should be produced for two markets or channels to maximize profit explicitly, given various capacity and uncertainty conditions. The first problem is in a sport analytics context, using a novel Integer Programming and big data from Whistler-Blackcomb ski resort. The second is to coordinate dozens of surgeries at London Health Sciences Centre, using a novel Constraint Programming model mapped to and parameterized with hospital data, including a tool for visualizing process and patient flow. The third problem is relevant to almost any business with a secondary market or sales channel, as it helps them identify profit optimal prices based on simple demand estimates and cost information they can easily provide for their own setting. The studies use fundamentally different operational research techniques, in each case uniquely extended to the problem setting. The first two are combinatorial problems, neither one extremely beyond human cognitive ability, and both involving lots of uncertainty, and thus the sort of problem managers tend to dismiss as not efficient or practical to solve analytically. We show in the first study that vastly more skiers could achieve the challenge by following our route recommendation, unintuitive as are some of its elements, initially. In the second study, our scheduling model consistently outperforms currently unstructured-independent approach at the hospital. The final study is mathematical but demonstrates that by considering distinct market costs in pricing a firm can invariably earn more profit