Transformation of the German energy system - Towards photovoltaic and wind power: Technology Readiness Levels 2018

The aim of this thesis is to objectify the discussion regarding the availability of technologies related to the German energy transition. This work describes the state of development of relevant technologies on the basis of Technology Readiness Levels. Further, it points out development potentials and limits as well as the necessary power capacities needed for a certain energy system design that is mainly based on electricity. Thus, the scope is set to renewable energy sources suited to provide electricity in Germany, technologies that convert primary electricity for other energy sectors (heating and mobility) and storage technologies. Additionally, non-conventional technologies for electricity supply and grid technologies are examined. The underlying Technology Readiness Assessment is a method used to determine the maturity of these systems or their essential components. The major criteria for assessment are scale, system fidelity and environment. In order to estimate the relevant magnitudes for certain energy technologies regarding power and storage capacities, a comprehensible simulation model is drafted and implemented. It allows the calculation of a renewable, volatile power supply based on historic data and the display of load and storage characteristics. As a result, the Technology Readiness Level of the different systems examined varies widely. For every step in the direct or indirect usage of renewable intermittent energy sources technologies on megawatt scale are commercially available. The necessary scale for the energy storage capacity is in terawatt hours. Based on the examined storage technologies, only chemical storages potentially provide this magnitude. Further, the required total power capacities for complementary conversion technologies lay in the two-digit gigawatt range.:Abstract 2 Contents 3 1. Introduction 7 2. General remarks on the current state of the German energy system 12 3. Method of Technology Readiness Assessment 16 3.1. Fundamentals of the method 16 3.2. Drawbacks of TRA 19 3.3. Extended Readiness Levels 20 3.4. Conducting the Technology Readiness Assessment 21 3.5. Expert interviews 23 3.6. References 24 4. Preliminary remarks on the TRL assessment 25 4.1. Mission and environment 25 4.2. Simplifications and neglected aspects 26 4.3. References 26 5. Wind power 27 5.1. Technology description 27 5.2. Estimation of potential 32 5.3. Representation of the achieved state of expansion 37 5.4. TRL assessment 39 5.5. References 40 6. Solar energy 44 6.1. Technology description 44 6.2. Solar thermal energy 44 6.3. Photovoltaic technologies 45 6.4. Estimation of potential 48 6.5. Representation of the achieved state of expansion 52 6.6. TRL assessment 53 6.7. References 54 7. Geothermal energy 56 7.1. Technology description 56 7.2. Estimation of potential 59 7.3. Description of the current level of expansion 62 7.4. TRL assessment 63 7.5. References 64 8. Hydropower 66 8.1. Technology description 66 8.2. Estimation of potential 68 8.3. Description of the current level of development 70 8.4. TRL assessment 71 8.5. References 72 9. Biomass 73 9.1. Technology description 73 9.2. Estimation of potential 75 9.3. Representation of the achieved state of expansion 79 9.4. TRL assessment 81 9.5. References 82 10. Transmission and distribution grids 84 10.1. Technology description 84 10.2. Estimation of potential 90 10.3. Representation of the achieved state of expansion 94 10.4. TRL assessment 95 10.5. References 96 11. Power-to-heat 100 11.1. Technology description 100 11.2. Estimation of potential 104 11.3. Representation of the achieved state of expansion 107 11.4. TRL assessment 108 11.5. References 109 12. Power-to-cold 111 12.1. Technology description 111 12.2. Estimation of potential 114 12.3. Representation of the achieved state of expansion 117 12.4. TRL assessment 118 12.5. References 120 13. Power-to-chemicals 122 13.1. Technology description 122 13.2. Estimation of potential 134 13.3. Representation of the achieved state of expansion 137 13.4. TRL assessment 138 13.5. Manufacturer overview for electrolysis systems 140 13.6. References 142 14. Mechanical storage 146 14.1. Technology description 146 14.2. Estimation of potential 148 14.3. Representation of the achieved state of expansion 155 14.4. TRL assessment 155 14.5. References 158 15. Thermal storage 160 15.1. Technology description 160 15.2. Estimation of potential 164 15.3. Representation of the achieved state of expansion 169 15.4. TRL assessment 170 15.5. References 172 16. Chemical storage systems 175 16.1. Technology description 175 16.2. Estimation of potential 180 16.3. Representation of the achieved state of expansion 185 16.4. TRL assessment 186 16.5. References 188 17. Electro-chemical storage systems 191 17.1. Technology description 191 17.2. Estimation of potential 198 17.3. Representation of the achieved state of expansion 202 17.4. TRL assessment 202 17.5. References 204 18. Gas engines/gas turbines for hydrogen combustion 207 18.1. Technology description 207 18.2. Estimation of potential 208 18.3. Representation of the achieved state of expansion 211 18.4. TRL assessment 211 18.5. References 213 19. Chemicals-to-Power – Fuel cells 214 19.1. Technology description 214 19.2. Estimation of potential 218 19.3. Representation of the achieved state of expansion 221 19.4. TRL assessment 223 19.5. References 225 20. Interim conclusion for TRA 227 21. Evaluation of system integration 230 21.1. Modelling approach 230 21.2. Scenarios for a renewable energy supply 238 21.3. Results of the simulation 238 21.4. Consequences 244 21.5. References 245 22. Summary and Outlook 247 23. Abbreviations and symbols 249 24. Indices 254 25. List of Figures 255 26. List of Tables 258 27. Appendix 260 27.1. DOE TRL definition and description 260 27.2. Visualized summary of TRLs 26