247,477 research outputs found
Statistical and Computational Tradeoff in Genetic Algorithm-Based Estimation
When a Genetic Algorithm (GA), or a stochastic algorithm in general, is
employed in a statistical problem, the obtained result is affected by both
variability due to sampling, that refers to the fact that only a sample is
observed, and variability due to the stochastic elements of the algorithm. This
topic can be easily set in a framework of statistical and computational
tradeoff question, crucial in recent problems, for which statisticians must
carefully set statistical and computational part of the analysis, taking
account of some resource or time constraints. In the present work we analyze
estimation problems tackled by GAs, for which variability of estimates can be
decomposed in the two sources of variability, considering some constraints in
the form of cost functions, related to both data acquisition and runtime of the
algorithm. Simulation studies will be presented to discuss the statistical and
computational tradeoff question.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figure
Nonlinear State-Space Models for Microeconometric Panel Data
In applied microeconometric panel data analyses, time-constant random effects and first-order Markov chains are the most prevalent structures to account for intertemporal correlations in limited dependent variable models. An example from health economics shows that the addition of a simple autoregressive error terms leads to a more plausible and parsimonious model which also captures the dynamic features better. The computational problems encountered in the estimation of such models - and a broader class formulated in the framework of nonlinear state space models - hampers their widespread use. This paper discusses the application of different nonlinear filtering approaches developed in the time-series literature to these models and suggests that a straightforward algorithm based on sequential Gaussian quadrature can be expected to perform well in this setting. This conjecture is impressively confirmed by an extensive analysis of the example application
Gene regulatory networks: a coarse-grained, equation-free approach to multiscale computation
We present computer-assisted methods for analyzing stochastic models of gene
regulatory networks. The main idea that underlies this equation-free analysis
is the design and execution of appropriately-initialized short bursts of
stochastic simulations; the results of these are processed to estimate
coarse-grained quantities of interest, such as mesoscopic transport
coefficients. In particular, using a simple model of a genetic toggle switch,
we illustrate the computation of an effective free energy and of a
state-dependent effective diffusion coefficient that characterize an
unavailable effective Fokker-Planck equation. Additionally we illustrate the
linking of equation-free techniques with continuation methods for performing a
form of stochastic "bifurcation analysis"; estimation of mean switching times
in the case of a bistable switch is also implemented in this equation-free
context. The accuracy of our methods is tested by direct comparison with
long-time stochastic simulations. This type of equation-free analysis appears
to be a promising approach to computing features of the long-time,
coarse-grained behavior of certain classes of complex stochastic models of gene
regulatory networks, circumventing the need for long Monte Carlo simulations.Comment: 33 pages, submitted to The Journal of Chemical Physic
Methods of Technical Prognostics Applicable to Embedded Systems
Hlavní cílem dizertace je poskytnutí uceleného pohledu na problematiku technické prognostiky, která nachází uplatnění v tzv. prediktivní údržbě založené na trvalém monitorování zařízení a odhadu úrovně degradace systému či jeho zbývající životnosti a to zejména v oblasti komplexních zařízení a strojů. V současnosti je technická diagnostika poměrně dobře zmapovaná a reálně nasazená na rozdíl od technické prognostiky, která je stále rozvíjejícím se oborem, který ovšem postrádá větší množství reálných aplikaci a navíc ne všechny metody jsou dostatečně přesné a aplikovatelné pro embedded systémy. Dizertační práce přináší přehled základních metod použitelných pro účely predikce zbývající užitné životnosti, jsou zde popsány metriky pomocí, kterých je možné jednotlivé přístupy porovnávat ať už z pohledu přesnosti, ale také i z pohledu výpočetní náročnosti. Jedno z dizertačních jader tvoří doporučení a postup pro výběr vhodné prognostické metody s ohledem na prognostická kritéria. Dalším dizertačním jádrem je představení tzv. částicového filtrovaní (particle filtering) vhodné pro model-based prognostiku s ověřením jejich implementace a porovnáním. Hlavní dizertační jádro reprezentuje případovou studii pro velmi aktuální téma prognostiky Li-Ion baterii s ohledem na trvalé monitorování. Případová studie demonstruje proces prognostiky založené na modelu a srovnává možné přístupy jednak pro odhad doby před vybitím baterie, ale také sleduje možné vlivy na degradaci baterie. Součástí práce je základní ověření modelu Li-Ion baterie a návrh prognostického procesu.The main aim of the thesis is to provide a comprehensive overview of technical prognosis, which is applied in the condition based maintenance, based on continuous device monitoring and remaining useful life estimation, especially in the field of complex equipment and machinery. Nowadays technical prognosis is still evolving discipline with limited number of real applications and is not so well developed as technical diagnostics, which is fairly well mapped and deployed in real systems. Thesis provides an overview of basic methods applicable for prediction of remaining useful life, metrics, which can help to compare the different approaches both in terms of accuracy and in terms of computational/deployment cost. One of the research cores consists of recommendations and guide for selecting the appropriate forecasting method with regard to the prognostic criteria. Second thesis research core provides description and applicability of particle filtering framework suitable for model-based forecasting. Verification of their implementation and comparison is provided. The main research topic of the thesis provides a case study for a very actual Li-Ion battery health monitoring and prognostics with respect to continuous monitoring. The case study demonstrates the prognostic process based on the model and compares the possible approaches for estimating both the runtime and capacity fade. Proposed methodology is verified on real measured data.
Probabilistic Graphical Models on Multi-Core CPUs using Java 8
In this paper, we discuss software design issues related to the development
of parallel computational intelligence algorithms on multi-core CPUs, using the
new Java 8 functional programming features. In particular, we focus on
probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) and present the parallelisation of a
collection of algorithms that deal with inference and learning of PGMs from
data. Namely, maximum likelihood estimation, importance sampling, and greedy
search for solving combinatorial optimisation problems. Through these concrete
examples, we tackle the problem of defining efficient data structures for PGMs
and parallel processing of same-size batches of data sets using Java 8
features. We also provide straightforward techniques to code parallel
algorithms that seamlessly exploit multi-core processors. The experimental
analysis, carried out using our open source AMIDST (Analysis of MassIve Data
STreams) Java toolbox, shows the merits of the proposed solutions.Comment: Pre-print version of the paper presented in the special issue on
Computational Intelligence Software at IEEE Computational Intelligence
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