Physikalische Modellierung der Wechselwirkungen zwischen thermischen Systemen in Supermärkten

This thesis contributes to modelling and quantification of interactions between thermal systems in supermarkets. The main goal of this thesis is to describe the interactions between thermal systems in supermarkets by means of physical models and to quantify their energetic impact. To achieve this overall goal, three subgoals are defined. The first subgoal is the breakdown of supermarkets into control volumes and the definition of physical interactions between them. In this work, the usage of physical modelling implies two aspects: Firstly, using first principle models and secondly using physical connections between objects. The second subgoal refers to the analysis of the air exchange between refrigerated display cabinets and the sales area. The focus lays on the quantification of the air exchange and the determination of the influence of door openings on this air exchange. In laboratory tests, an adapted tracer gas method using CO2 is used to determine the air change rates between the display cabinets and the sales room for three typical supermarket cabinets. Additionally, a second way of quantifying the impact of door openings on the air infiltration uses the so-called thermal entrainment factor (TEF). The applications of the developed models are exemplified. The prediction of the energy consumption of a period of 28 days deviates only 3.3% from measurement data. The analysis of the effects of incoming and outgoing customers on fresh air change rates is the third subgoal of this thesis. This air exchange is highly relevant because it affects the thermal loads of the heating and air conditioning system as well as the need for ventilation. In order to estimate the air change rates, a model of the CO2 concentration in the sales room air is developed, which uses the air change rates of the closed and opened entrance door as parameters. The prediction of the CO2 concentration works very well: the mean absolute error of 26ppm is below the accuracy of the measurement data. Additionally, the entire supermarket is simulated with the objective to predict the humidity of the sales room air. The humidity ratio in the test supermarket for a period of 14 day could be predicted with a mean absolute error of 0.3g/kg, which again is below the accuracy of the measurement data. Finally, several of the interactions between thermal systems in a supermarket are quantified exemplarily. The energetic impact of the shopping of one customer is analysed for three scenarios.Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Beschreibung der Wechselwirkungen zwischen thermischen Systemen in Supermärkten sowie die Quantifizierung ihres energetischen Einflusses. Hierzu werden drei Teilziele definiert. Das erste Teilziel besteht in der Unterteilung eines Supermarktes in Bilanzräume und der Definition von Schnittstellen zur Beschreibung der Wechselwirkungen. Die typischerweise in einem Supermarkt vorhandenen Systeme Kühlmöbel, Kälteanlage sowie Verkaufsraum werden in dieser Arbeit betrachtet. Das zweite Teilziel bezieht sich auf die Analyse des Luftaustausches zwischen den Kühlmöbeln und dem Verkaufsraum. Dieser ist besonders wichtig, da er einerseits zum Wärme- und Feuchtigkeitseintrag in das Kühlmöbel führt, was den Kühlbedarf erhöht. Andererseits hat dieser Luftaustausch eine Abkühlung sowie Entfeuchtung der Verkaufsraumluft zur Folge. Der Schwerpunkt der Untersuchung liegt auf der Quantifizierung dieses Luftaustausches sowie der Bestimmung des Türöffnungseinflusses. In Laborversuchen wird eine adaptierte Tracergas Methode mit dem Gas CO2 verwendet, um den Luftaustausch typischer Kühlmöbel mit Türen zu untersuchen. Weiterhin wird eine zweite Methode zur Bestimmung des Türöffnungseinflusses vorgestellt, die auf dem als dimensionslose Infiltrationsrate interpretierbaren thermal entrainment factor (TEF) basiert. Die Simulationsmodelle und gemessenen Infiltrationsraten in Kühlmöbeln werden genutzt, um den Strombedarf der Kühlmöbel und der R-744 Verbundkälteanlage eines realen Supermarktes vorauszuberechnen. Die Abweichung des für einen Zeitraum von 28 Tagen vorausberechneten Energiebedarfs beträgt 3.3%. Die Untersuchung des Einflusses von herein- und herausgehenden Kunden auf die Luftwechselraten des Verkaufsraumes stellt das dritte Teilziel dieser Arbeit dar. Hierzu wird ein Modell zur Bestimmung der CO2 Konzentration in der Verkaufsraumluft entwickelt, welches die Luftwechselraten mit geöffneter bzw. geschlossener Eingangstür als Parameter nutzt. Der CO2 Gehalt kann mit einer Abweichung von 26ppm und somit innerhalb der Messungenauigkeit vorhergesagt werden. Eine weitere Anwendung der Simulationstechnik wird vorgestellt: Der gesamte Supermarkt wird simuliert mit dem Ziel die Wasserbeladung im Verkaufsraum vorherzusagen. Dies gelingt mit einer sehr geringen Abweichung (0.3g/kg). Abschließend wird der energetische Einfluss eines einzelnen Kunden und die von ihm verursachten Wechselwirkungen für drei Szenarien (Winter, Frühling, Sommer) bewertet

Development and Empirical Test of a Grocery Retail Instore Logistics Model

The purpose of the paper is to introduce a model of Instore Logistics for retail stores. The model attempted to give a picture of all logistics processes that are carried out within a retail outlet from an incoming dock to the check out. The model has afterwards been empirically validated by analyzing the Instore Logistics processes of dairy products in 200 stores in the Austrian grocery retail sector. The findings of the survey show typical problem areas within store operations and identify the impact of the final 50 metres in the store as a key factor impacting upon the success of retail business. The paper continues the work of Raman, DeHoratius & Ton (2001) and Cachon (2001) and the findings contribute to close the execution gap in retail operations

Small Batch Manufacturing in the Age of Disruption to Reduce Slow Moving, Obsolete and Deteriorating Finished Goods in Fast Moving Consumer Goods Industry

The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry is characterised by many stock keeping units being held in hypermarkets, supermarkets, minimarkets, convenience stores, smaller sundry shops as well as in centralised or decentralised warehouses supplied from batch manufacturing. In the process of manufacturing and distributing a large range of items, a portion of slow-moving items result in obsolete stocks being held. These slow-moving items often sit on shelves for long periods of time and upon reaching their expiry dates, some deteriorate too. In these circumstances, the supply chain manager may decide to dispose or write them off at a loss. This study aims to show how analysis of such inventory and their demand popularity could be used to install small batch capacity, applying a make to order policy in the FMCG industry for non-popular items. Supply chain managers may also transfer finished goods and moving single units of finished goods from an opened carton between retail outlets and warehouses before applying a make when zero policy to reduce and eliminate such waste in supply chains

Modelling and Simulation of Inventory Replenishment Policies and Comparison of Target Days Vs Actual Days of Inventory Held

Supply chain managers often apply aggregate planning techniques to develop make or buy decisions or even make for stock versus make to order scenarios for example. These scenarios often contain combinations of inventory holding vs capacity installed. Many supply chain managers have used ‘what-if’ decisions to develop supply chain scenarios to help them determine optimum results in terms of low cost and improved customer service. This study aims to create eight scenarios of varying inventory replenishment policies for one fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) organisation. The aim is to provide the supply chain manager with alternative options for lower inventory and yet be able to service the FMCG businesses at lowest cost. The results show that this allows supply chain managers to pick the scenario that optimises an organisation’s resources and competitive strategy

Evaluation of the 2012/13 Farm Input Subsidy Programme, Malawi: Final Report

This report evaluates the 2012/13 Malawi Government Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP). The main objective of the evaluation is to assess the impact and implementation of the FISP in order to provide information regarding • the overall value for money of investments in the FISP as regards its contributions to agricultural production, food security, farmers’ and consumers’ welfare • means by which future implementation of the FISP might be changed in order to improve its effectiveness and efficiency We consider in turn the two main questions that the report addresses, beginning with the overall contributions and value for money from the FISP. The FISP medium term plans sets out the objectives of the FISP as being to ‘increase food security at household level through agricultural output growth’ by increasing agricultural productivity and input market development. However economic theory and experience from other countries suggests that if implemented consistently, effectively and efficiently at a manageable cost the programme has the potential to drive broad based national economic growth and diversification by raising the productivity of the agricultural land and labour held by the large rural population, lowering food prices, raising real wages, and stimulating non-agricultural demand and supply. This depends upon the ability of the programme to cost effectively increase seed and fertiliser input use in maize production, drive up maize productivity and improve input supply services (the direct impacts of the programme) with the support of complementary policies that support low maize prices, rising real wages and rural diversification (the indirect impacts of the programme). Increases in production and maize productivity as a result of the programme are difficult to assess. Bringing together evidence from a wide range of sources, section 7 of the report suggests that the programme led to increased production of around 723,000MT of maize and 32,000MT of legumes. Malawi’s rapidly growing population means that the programme’s incremental production benefits are increasingly important for Malawi’s national food security. These benefits are however undermined by likely informal exports (despite an export ban) encouraged by pressures from the relatively low dollar denominated maize prices in Malawi following the major devaluation of the Kwacha. The programme also led to increased profitability of maize production by beneficiary households and increased rural incomes by between MK50,000 and MK70,000per household receiving and using a full pack of fertiliser and maize seed (ignoring spillover effects and benefits from receipt of fertiliser that does not contribute to incremental production).For many poorer beneficiaries, who receive only one coupon for 50 kg of fertiliser, it seems that benefits are only sufficient to reduce their food insecurity, and are not enough to enable them to advance their livelihoods – to ‘step out’ or ‘step up’ rather than just ‘hang in’. Addressing this in the context of both limited fiscal resources and rapidly growing population pressure is a major challenge facing the programme and the Government and country as a whole. There is, however, evidence that the FISP is encouraging some diversification out of maize into increased legume production. Assessment of the potential wider indirect impacts of the programme (addressed in section 8) requires comparison of situations with and without the subsidy. A Local Economy Wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) model, a novel form of CGE modelling, investigating this suggests that there are significant spillover local growth effects from the subsidy as a result of both its injection of cash into the economy and of the increase in real incomes caused by its raising land and labour productivity. However real wage rates fell during 2012/13 as a result of rising maize prices, which, as mentioned above, have been affected by the devaluation of the Malawi Kwacha and consequent export and inflationary pressures. It is not possible to estimate possible effects of FISP in reducing the extent of the fall in wages. These wider influences on maize prices pose a major challenge to the welfare of poor Malawians and to the Malawian economy, with or without the FISP. Policies that address this and promote low and stable domestic maize prices are essential for FISP to deliver improved food security and the wider growth benefits outlined above – and some specific options are suggested. The overall benefit cost ratio (BCR) for the FISP is estimated at 1.7taking account of only direct impacts, and at1.8if wider indirect impacts are also included. Fiscal efficiency (the ratio of net economic benefits to government expenditure) is estimated at 0.75for direct impacts and 1.04 including indirect impacts. Analysis of national food security scenarios with and without the FISP suggests that in the last 6 years it may have led to average annual savings of maize imports of some 385,000MT, directly offsetting up to between 85 and 110% of programme costs. Benefit cost ratio estimates are however sensitive to some of the parameters used in their calculation, notably maize prices, incremental maize productivity, and fertiliser costs. The Fiscal Efficiency of the programme and its overall cost are also affected by likely high rates of input leakage and of displacement of unsubsidised farmer purchases by subsidised inputs, and by the subsidy rate and low farmer contributions. The importance of low and stable maize prices for programme benefits has been discussed above. More attention to these issues in the implementation of the programme could lead to substantial increases in the effectiveness and efficiency of the programme with increased benefits and/or reduced costs. Analysis of determinants of maize productivity shows that yields are generally increased by early planting, early and good weeding, use of hybrid seed, use of inorganic nitrogenous fertiliser and of phosphate where soils are phosphate deficient, and use of organic fertilisers. Returns to use of inorganic fertiliser are also increased by use of hybrid seed, use of organic fertiliser, and higher plant density. Gains from using subsidised inorganic fertiliser and hybrid seed may also be substantially reduced if use of subsidised inputs leads to delays in planting. These observations, which are widely known, underpin many aspects of the design and implementation of the FISP, for example the increasing provision of hybrid and legume seeds in the subsidy package, the intention to provide coupons and inputs early in the season (with priority given to the south, then centre then north), and the inclusion of both nitrogenous and compound fertilisers. Analysis of the implementation of the programme in section 4 and of the timing of receipt of coupons by households in section 6 shows that a number of reasons (some of them beyond the immediate control of programme management) have led to late access to coupons and inputs – and this tends to raise costs and increase displacement as well as reduce yields. Incremental production is also affected by displacement rates and by leakages of inputs through theft and corruption. Programme costs have been held in check from 2009/10 with much better physical control of quantities of subsidised fertilisers. As noted in section 4, there are opportunities for reducing fertiliser procurement costs (and improving timeliness of delivery) through modified tender and payment procedures. Programme costs could also be reduced by increasing farmer contributions as a proportion of input costs, and there is a difficult balance here between on the one hand supporting those who can least afford inputs and benefit most from a high rate of subsidy, and on the other hand reducing overall programme costs. A third way of reducing programme costs and/or increasing benefits is to reduce displacement and leakage, with improved security of coupons (where there has been substantial improvements in 2011/12 and 2012/13); better transport tendering and monitoring procedures (the latter building on approaches trialled with ESOKO in 2012/13); more timely input delivery, market opening and coupon distribution; and better targeting of inputs to poorer farmers unable to afford unsubsidised inputs. Increased farmer contributions may also decrease the incentives for theft, corruption and leakage. Determination of more precise numbers of farm families and (building on useful innovations in 2012/13) greater farmer access to and understanding of publicly available beneficiary lists could also improve targeting outcomes and accountability and control of coupons. Greater use of use of such systems will, however, have to take account of the support for and benefits from the widespread ‘sharing’ of coupons in the Central and Southern Regions. Increasing attention to matters of accountability, access to coupons, and conditions at markets are to be welcomed and will no doubt be built on as more information becomes available on their strengths and weaknesses. Despite its high cost, the FISP is making a positive set of contributions to the welfare of Malawians, and this represents a considerable achievement by all those involved in its resourcing, design and implementation in challenging conditions. These contributions are however threatened by macroeconomic pressures; by high and increasing population pressure in rural areas; by the high visibility of instances of late implementation, corruption and theft; by evidence of poor targeting; and by political and economic pressures. These contributions and these pressures call for renewed efforts to both work for and demonstrate improved efficiency and effectiveness and increased benefits and probity of the programme. In order to facilitate wider and better informed debate around the FISP, this report will be supplemented by two short policy briefing papers summarising key issues raised regarding FISP implementation and impacts. The value of this report is, however, that it brings together in one place a comprehensive review of the programme. Readers are advised to refer to those sections that are of direct interest and not be put off by the size of the report as a whole. The ‘summary and conclusions’ section at the end of the report contains a longer and more detailed summary of the report

From supply chains to demand networks. Agents in retailing: the electrical bazaar

A paradigm shift is taking place in logistics. The focus is changing from operational effectiveness to adaptation. Supply Chains will develop into networks that will adapt to consumer demand in almost real time. Time to market, capacity of adaptation and enrichment of customer experience seem to be the key elements of this new paradigm. In this environment emerging technologies like RFID (Radio Frequency ID), Intelligent Products and the Internet, are triggering a reconsideration of methods, procedures and goals. We present a Multiagent System framework specialized in retail that addresses these changes with the use of rational agents and takes advantages of the new market opportunities. Like in an old bazaar, agents able to learn, cooperate, take advantage of gossip and distinguish between collaborators and competitors, have the ability to adapt, learn and react to a changing environment better than any other structure. Keywords: Supply Chains, Distributed Artificial Intelligence, Multiagent System.Postprint (published version

Value Stream Mapping with Microsoft Dynamics AX

Microsoft Dynamics AX (AX) is an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system, and like ERP systems in general, it supports the lean production philosophy only to a limited extent. One way to provide a better support for lean production would be a feature for value stream mapping with AX as data source. The purpose of this study was to examine if plant level current state value stream maps could be created with an existing software using AX as data source. The relevance of such maps in order to gain a realistic representation of the value stream has also been evaluated. In order to fulfil the purpose, a comprehensive literature study has been conducted. From established theories, the information needed for mapping of a value stream has been identified. Next it has been investigated to what extent this information is available in AX, and how it can be visualized. Finally it is investigated how relevant this visualization is for realistically describing the actual value stream. A number of additional value stream mapping tools are also examined, in relation to the existing data in AX. It is concluded that plant level current state value stream maps can be created with data from AX and that this method of producing value stream maps has some advantages in relation to the conventional method: A time saving potential, clearness, and a single source of data. Disadvantages are also identified, including: Risk for lack of specific data, approximations of data, reliance on user input and frequent updating. It is also concluded that this method of value stream mapping is limited in relation to the lean principles, mainly due to two facts: Strategic product families can not be identified, and AX does not support the way production is controlled in a lean production environment. Therefore further research is suggested, before a feature for value stream mapping is implemented

Minimizing food waste in grocery store operations: literature review and research agenda

Research on grocery waste in food retailing has recently attracted particular interest. Investigations in this area are relevant to address the problems of wasted resources and ethical concerns, as well as economic aspects from the retailer’s perspective. Reasons for food waste in retail are already well-studied empirically, and based on this, proposals for reduction are discussed. However, comprehensive approaches for preventing food waste in store operations using analytics and modeling methods are scarce. No work has yet systematized related research in this domain. As a result, there is neither any up-to-date literature review nor any agenda for future research. We contribute with the first structured literature review of analytics and modeling methods dealing with food waste prevention in retail store operations. This work identifies cross-cutting store-related planning areas to mitigate food waste, namely (1) assortment and shelf space planning, (2) replenishment policies, and (3) dynamic pricing policies. We introduce a common classification scheme of literature with regard to the depth of food waste integration and the characteristics of these planning problems. This builds our foundation to review analytics and modeling approaches. Current literature considers food waste mainly as a side effect in costing and often ignores product age dependent demand by customers. Furthermore, approaches are not integrated across planning areas. Future lines of research point to the most promising open questions in this field

POLICY OF NATIONALISM GUIDANCE THROUGH IN TRADITIONAL MARKET MANAGEMENT IN CENTRAL JAVA

A research on policy nationalism guidance through in traditional markets management in the province of Central Java is implemented in “Pasar Gede Solo” with qualitative methods. The reason for selecting “Pasar Gede Solo” because of Solo City has a lot of cultural heritages that are still held strong until today. The cultural heritage is the local identity. The Local identity can develop into the province identity, then to be the national identity. A strong national identity shows high Nationalism which reflected from loyalty, passion and pride of the nation itself. The number of local identities in “Pasar Gede Solo” is likely to evolve into national identity should be encouraged to preserve the Government's policy to strengthen Indonesia Nationalism