Why Risk Models should be Parameterised

Risk models using fault and event trees can be extended with explicit factors, which are states of the system, its users or its environment that influence event probabilities. The factors act as parameters in the risk model, enabling the model to be re-used and also providing a new way to estimate the overall risk of a system with many instances of the risk. A risk model with parameters can also be clearer

Proceedings, MSVSCC 2019

Old Dominion University Department of Modeling, Simulation & Visualization Engineering (MSVE) and the Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center (VMASC) held the 13th annual Modeling, Simulation & Visualization (MSV) Student Capstone Conference on April 18, 2019. The Conference featured student research and student projects that are central to MSV. Also participating in the conference were faculty members who volunteered their time to impart direct support to their students’ research, facilitated the various conference tracks, served as judges for each of the tracks, and provided overall assistance to the conference. Appreciating the purpose of the conference and working in a cohesive, collaborative effort, resulted in a successful symposium for everyone involved. These proceedings feature the works that were presented at the conference. Capstone Conference Chair: Dr. Yuzhong Shen Capstone Conference Student Chair: Daniel Pere

A Value Function Approach to Information Operations MOE\u27s: A Preliminary Study

A value focused thinking approach is applied to information operations. A preliminary value hierarchy for information operations is constructed by extracting the values of senior military leadership from existing doctrine. To identify these key values for information operations, applicable existing doctrine was reviewed and summarized. Additionally, hierarchical representations of the values represented within each reviewed doctrine are developed. A value hierarchy requires that supporting objectives be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Within this analysis, these requirements are enforced, in part, by developed definitions which serve as tests to maintain mutual exclusivity. An exhaustive set of supporting values is also guaranteed by identifying a spanning set of values that directly support the overall objective of information operations. This preliminary value hierarchy serves as the basis for continuing research. The implications for this research include the construction of a prescriptive model in which the effectiveness of current and future systems can be assessed on a common scale. Further, the effectiveness of developing technologies can be assessed and the value of these technologies determined with respect to the values of senior military leadership. With this, the value of holes in our suite of information warfare systems can also be assessed in terms of their effectiveness in fulfilling the values of military leadership

Information compression in the context model

The Context Model provides a formal framework for the representation, interpretation, and analysis of vague and uncertain data. The clear semantics of the underlying concepts make it feasible to compare well-known approaches to the modeling of imperfect knowledge like that given in Bayes Theory, Shafer's Evidence Theory, the Transferable Belief Model, and Possibility Theory. In this paper we present the basic ideas of the Context Model and show its applicability as an alternative foundation of Possibility Theory and the epistemic view of fuzzy sets

Learning About Modeling in Teacher Preparation Programs

This study explores opportunities that secondary mathematics teacher preparation programs provide to learn about modeling in algebra. Forty-eight course instructors and ten focus groups at five universities were interviewed to answer questions related to modeling. With the analysis of the interview transcripts and related course materials, we found few opportunities for PSTs to engage with the full modeling cycle. Examples of opportunities to learn about algebraic modeling and the participants’ perspectives on the opportunities can contribute to the study of modeling and algebra in teacher education