6 research outputs found

    Processing social media text for the quantamental analyses of cryptoasset time series

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    This thesis analyses social media text to identify which events and concerns are associated with changes between phases of rising and falling cryptoasset prices. A new cryptoasset classification system, based on token functionality, highlights Bitcoin as the largest example of a 'crypto-transaction' system and Ethereum as the largest example of a 'crypto-fuel' system. The price of ether is only weakly correlated with that of bitcoin (Spearman's rho 0.3849). Both bitcoin and ether show distinct phases of rising or falling prices and have a large, dedicated social media forum on Reddit. A process is developed to extract events and concerns discussed on social media associated with these different phases of price movement. This innovative data-driven approach circumvents the need to pre-judge social media metrics. First, a new, non-parametric Data-Driven Phasic Word Identification methodology is developed to find words associated with the phase of declining bitcoin prices in 2017-18. This approach is further developed to find the context of these words, from which topics are inferred. Then, neural networks (word2vec) are applied to evolve analysis from extracting words to extracting topics. Finally, this work enables the development of a framework for identifying which events and concerns are plausible causes of changes between different phases in the ether and bitcoin price series. Consistent with Bitcoin providing a form of money and Ethereum providing a platform for developing applications, these results show the one-off effect of regulatory bans on bitcoin, and the recurring effects of rival innovations on ether price. The results also suggest the influence of technical traders, captured through market price discourse, on both cryptoassets. This thesis demonstrates the value of a quantamental approach to the analysis of cryptoasset prices

    Analysing Social Media Forums to Discover Potential Causes of Phasic Shifts in Cryptocurrency Price Series

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    The recent extreme volatility in cryptocurrency prices occurred in the setting of popular social media forums devoted to the discussion of cryptocurrencies. We develop a framework that discovers potential causes of phasic shifts in the price movement captured by social media discussions. This draws on principles developed in healthcare epidemiology where, similarly, only observational data are available. Such causes may have a major, one-off effect, or recurring effects on the trend in the price series. We find a one-off effect of regulatory bans on bitcoin, the repeated effects of rival innovations on ether and the influence of technical traders, captured through discussion of market price, on both cryptocurrencies. The results for Bitcoin differ from Ethereum, which is consistent with the observed differences in the timing of the highest price and the price phases. This framework could be applied to a wide range of cryptocurrency price series where there exists a relevant social media text source. Identified causes with a recurring effect may have value in predictive modelling, whilst one-off causes may provide insight into unpredictable black swan events that can have a major impact on a system

    Towards Consumer 4.0 Insights and Opportunities under the Marketing 4.0 Scenario

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    This Research Topic is a sequel to our previous Research Topic “From Consumer Experience to Affective Loyalty: Challenges and Prospects in the Psychology of Consumer Behavior 3.0”. This first article collection was devoted to analyze the changes that appeared in different industries and companies, fostered by factors mainly related to the development of technologies. The evolution from consumer 3.0 to consumer 4.0 represents an opportunity to feature the changes that have been occurring lately as well as to gain an insight into the future of consumer behavior. Nowadays, the markets are experiencing several transformations in consumer behavior. These changes have been fueled by several trends: processes of globalization that produced an extraordinary assortment of diverse products and brand alternatives, new business models based on the intensive use of technology advances in communication and mobile technologies that allow customers’ capacity to easily participating in co-creation processes with companies; and big data developments. In this scenario, customers acquired more power than ever before due to their availability of information required to choose among the better priced alternatives product-brand options, as well as the technological means to access to such alternatives. Thus, customers evolved from a position to simply receiving the offer proposed by companies, to a position of power where they had the last word in the decision process, that is, the position of consumer 3.0. These consumers were characterized by their ability to adopt and use new technologies to meet their individual needs. What is more, these types of consumers did not longer easily respond to traditional mass marketing techniques. Instead, this generation of consumers demanded a highly customized approach across all facets of businesses including new product development, communication and customer service, among others. Nevertheless, in the advent of Marketing 4.0, a new type of consumer is observed, namely the customer 4.0. The transition from consumer 3.0 to consumer 4.0 is becoming evident, not only in consumers’ behavior but also in companies’ behavior. Related to the first one, consumers 4.0 are hyper-connected through different technologies, including not only the well-known mobile or digital technologies, but also other type of technologies, such as IoT, nanotech or artificial intelligence. Hence, their behavior is characterized by the demand of technology that have integrated the facets of Marketing 4.0 such as geolocation, marketing virtual and augmented reality facets. Regarding the second one, companies should face a digital transformation affecting not only value areas, but also, the way business interact with the environment. In particular, companies need to incorporate systems and applications that allow them to collect and analyze information, while helping decision making, since in the long run these issues constitute the cornerstone on which to start building a successful marketing strategy 4.0. This Research Topic welcomes scientific papers that covers the following topics (but not limited exclusively): - Consumers’ 4.0. behavior in different countries, industries, products, brands, etc.; - Digital transformations of industries and companies due to new consumption patterns; - New devices launched by companies work to meet the demands of consumer 4.0 (e.g., IoT), as well as the use consumers make of such devices; - The latest technology trends in business areas that make easier the consumer-companies relationships (processing, communication or any other digital technologies)
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