Fuzzy C-mean missing data imputation for analogy-based effort estimation

The accuracy of effort estimation in one of the major factors in the success or failure of software projects. Analogy-Based Estimation (ABE) is a widely accepted estimation model since its flow human nature in selecting analogies similar in nature to the target project. The accuracy of prediction in ABE model in strongly associated with the quality of the dataset since it depends on previous completed projects for estimation. Missing Data (MD) is one of major challenges in software engineering datasets. Several missing data imputation techniques have been investigated by researchers in ABE model. Identification of the most similar donor values from the completed software projects dataset for imputation is a challenging issue in existing missing data techniques adopted for ABE model. In this study, Fuzzy C-Mean Imputation (FCMI), Mean Imputation (MI) and K-Nearest Neighbor Imputation (KNNI) are investigated to impute missing values in Desharnais dataset under different missing data percentages (Desh-Miss1, Desh-Miss2) for ABE model. FCMI-ABE technique is proposed in this study. Evaluation comparison among MI, KNNI, and (ABE-FCMI) is conducted for ABE model to identify the suitable MD imputation method. The results suggest that the use of (ABE-FCMI), rather than MI and KNNI, imputes more reliable values to incomplete software projects in the missing datasets. It was also found that the proposed imputation method significantly improves software development effort prediction of ABE model

Cross-validation based K nearest neighbor imputation for software quality datasets: An empirical study

Being able to predict software quality is essential, but also it pose significant challenges in software engineering. Historical software project datasets are often being utilized together with various machine learning algorithms for fault-proneness classification. Unfortunately, the missing values in datasets have negative impacts on the estimation accuracy and therefore, could lead to inconsistent results. As a method handling missing data, K nearest neighbor (KNN) imputation gradually gains acceptance in empirical studies by its exemplary performance and simplicity. To date, researchers still call for optimized parameter setting for KNN imputation to further improve its performance. In the work, we develop a novel incomplete-instance based KNN imputation technique, which utilizes a cross-validation scheme to optimize the parameters for each missing value. An experimental assessment is conducted on eight quality datasets under various missingness scenarios. The study also compared the proposed imputation approach with mean imputation and other three KNN imputation approaches. The results show that our proposed approach is superior to others in general. The relatively optimal fixed parameter settings for KNN imputation for software quality data is also determined. It is observed that the classification accuracy is improved or at least maintained by using our approach for missing data imputation

Physically inspired methods and development of data-driven predictive systems.

Traditionally building of predictive models is perceived as a combination of both science and art. Although the designer of a predictive system effectively follows a prescribed procedure, his domain knowledge as well as expertise and intuition in the field of machine learning are often irreplaceable. However, in many practical situations it is possible to build well–performing predictive systems by following a rigorous methodology and offsetting not only the lack of domain knowledge but also partial lack of expertise and intuition, by computational power. The generalised predictive model development cycle discussed in this thesis is an example of such methodology, which despite being computationally expensive, has been successfully applied to real–world problems. The proposed predictive system design cycle is a purely data–driven approach. The quality of data used to build the system is thus of crucial importance. In practice however, the data is rarely perfect. Common problems include missing values, high dimensionality or very limited amount of labelled exemplars. In order to address these issues, this work investigated and exploited inspirations coming from physics. The novel use of well–established physical models in the form of potential fields, has resulted in derivation of a comprehensive Electrostatic Field Classification Framework for supervised and semi–supervised learning from incomplete data. Although the computational power constantly becomes cheaper and more accessible, it is not infinite. Therefore efficient techniques able to exploit finite amount of predictive information content of the data and limit the computational requirements of the resource–hungry predictive system design procedure are very desirable. In designing such techniques this work once again investigated and exploited inspirations coming from physics. By using an analogy with a set of interacting particles and the resulting Information Theoretic Learning framework, the Density Preserving Sampling technique has been derived. This technique acts as a computationally efficient alternative for cross–validation, which fits well within the proposed methodology. All methods derived in this thesis have been thoroughly tested on a number of benchmark datasets. The proposed generalised predictive model design cycle has been successfully applied to two real–world environmental problems, in which a comparative study of Density Preserving Sampling and cross–validation has also been performed confirming great potential of the proposed methods

An Algorithmic Approach to Missing Data Problem in Modeling Human Aspects in Software Development

Background: In our previous research, we built defect prediction models by using confirmation bias metrics. Due to confirmation bias developers tend to perform unit tests to make their programs run rather than breaking their code. This, in turn, leads to an increase in defect density. The performance of prediction model that is built using confirmation bias was as good as the models that were built with static code or churn metrics. Aims: Collection of confirmation bias metrics may result in partially "missing data" due to developers' tight schedules, evaluation apprehension and lack of motivation as well as staff turnover. In this paper, we employ Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm to impute missing confirmation bias data. Method: We used four datasets from two large-scale companies. For each dataset, we generated all possible missing data configurations and then employed Roweis' EM algorithm to impute missing data. We built defect prediction models using the imputed data. We compared the performances of our proposed models with the ones that used complete data. Results: In all datasets, when missing data percentage is less than or equal to 50% on average, our proposed model that used imputed data yielded performance results that are comparable with the performance results of the models that used complete data. Conclusions: We may encounter the "missing data" problem in building defect prediction models. Our results in this study showed that instead of discarding missing or noisy data, in our case confirmation bias metrics, we can use effective techniques such as EM based imputation to overcome this problem

Physically inspired methods and development of data-driven predictive systems

Traditionally building of predictive models is perceived as a combination of both science and art. Although the designer of a predictive system effectively follows a prescribed procedure, his domain knowledge as well as expertise and intuition in the field of machine learning are often irreplaceable. However, in many practical situations it is possible to build well–performing predictive systems by following a rigorous methodology and offsetting not only the lack of domain knowledge but also partial lack of expertise and intuition, by computational power. The generalised predictive model development cycle discussed in this thesis is an example of such methodology, which despite being computationally expensive, has been successfully applied to real–world problems. The proposed predictive system design cycle is a purely data–driven approach. The quality of data used to build the system is thus of crucial importance. In practice however, the data is rarely perfect. Common problems include missing values, high dimensionality or very limited amount of labelled exemplars. In order to address these issues, this work investigated and exploited inspirations coming from physics. The novel use of well–established physical models in the form of potential fields, has resulted in derivation of a comprehensive Electrostatic Field Classification Framework for supervised and semi–supervised learning from incomplete data. Although the computational power constantly becomes cheaper and more accessible, it is not infinite. Therefore efficient techniques able to exploit finite amount of predictive information content of the data and limit the computational requirements of the resource–hungry predictive system design procedure are very desirable. In designing such techniques this work once again investigated and exploited inspirations coming from physics. By using an analogy with a set of interacting particles and the resulting Information Theoretic Learning framework, the Density Preserving Sampling technique has been derived. This technique acts as a computationally efficient alternative for cross–validation, which fits well within the proposed methodology. All methods derived in this thesis have been thoroughly tested on a number of benchmark datasets. The proposed generalised predictive model design cycle has been successfully applied to two real–world environmental problems, in which a comparative study of Density Preserving Sampling and cross–validation has also been performed confirming great potential of the proposed methods.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Investigating the Process of Developing a KDD Model for the Classification of Cases with Cardiovascular Disease Based on a Canadian Database

Medicine and health domains are information intensive fields as data volume has been increasing constantly from them. In order to make full use of the data, the technique of Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) has been developed as a comprehensive pathway to discover valid and unsuspected patterns and trends that are both understandable and useful to data analysts. The present study aimed to investigate the entire KDD process of developing a classification model for cardiovascular disease (CVD) from a Canadian dataset for the first time. The research data source was Canadian Heart Health Database, which contains 265 easily collected variables and 23,129 instances from ten Canadian provinces. Many practical issues involving in different steps of the integrated process were addressed, and possible solutions were suggested based on the experimental results. Five specific learning schemes representing five distinct KDD approaches were employed, as they were never compared with one another. In addition, two improving approaches including cost-sensitive learning and ensemble learning were also examined. The performance of developed models was measured in many aspects. The data set was prepared through data cleaning and missing value imputation. Three pairs of experiments demonstrated that the dataset balancing and outlier removal exerted positive influence to the classifier, but the variable normalization was not helpful. Three combinations of subset generation method and evaluation function were tested in variable subset selection phase, and the combination of Best-First search and Correlation-based Feature Selection showed comparable goodness and was maintained for other benefits. Among the five learning schemes investigated, C4.5 decision tree achieved the best performance on the classification of CVD, followed by Multilayer Feed-forward Network, KNearest Neighbor, Logistic Regression, and Naïve Bayes. Cost-sensitive learning exemplified by the MetaCost algorithm failed to outperform the single C4.5 decision tree when varying the cost matrix from 5:1 to 1:7. In contrast, the models developed from ensemble modeling, especially AdaBoost M1 algorithm, outperformed other models. Although the model with the best performance might be suitable for CVD screening in general Canadian population, it is not ready to use in practice. I propose some criteria to improve the further evaluation of the model. Finally, I describe some of the limitations of the study and propose potential solutions to address such limitations through out the KDD process. Such possibilities should be explored in further research

Artificial Intelligence-Based Drug Design and Discovery

The drug discovery process from hit-to-lead has been a challenging task that requires simultaneously optimizing numerous factors from maximizing compound activity, efficacy to minimizing toxicity and adverse reactions. Recently, the advance of artificial intelligence technique enables drugs to be efficiently purposed in silico prior to chemical synthesis and experimental evaluation. In this chapter, we present fundamental concepts of artificial intelligence and their application in drug design and discovery. The emphasis will be on machine learning and deep learning, which demonstrated extensive utility in many branches of computer-aided drug discovery including de novo drug design, QSAR (Quantitative Structure–Activity Relationship) analysis, drug repurposing and chemical space visualization. We will demonstrate how artificial intelligence techniques can be leveraged for developing chemoinformatics pipelines and presented with real-world case studies and practical applications in drug design and discovery. Finally, we will discuss limitations and future direction to guide this rapidly evolving field

Machine Learning Approaches for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) as a field has emerged quite rapidly in the recent years. A competitive solution coupled with big data gathered for ITS applications needs the latest AI to drive the ITS for the smart and effective public transport planning and management. Although there is a strong need for ITS applications like Advanced Route Planning (ARP) and Traffic Control Systems (TCS) to take the charge and require the minimum of possible human interventions. This thesis develops the models that can predict the traffic link flows on a junction level such as road traffic flows for a freeway or highway road for all traffic conditions. The research first reviews the state-of-the-art time series data prediction techniques with a deep focus in the field of transport Engineering along with the existing statistical and machine leaning methods and their applications for the freeway traffic flow prediction. This review setup a firm work focussed on the view point to look for the superiority in term of prediction performance of individual statistical or machine learning models over another. A detailed theoretical attention has been given, to learn the structure and working of individual chosen prediction models, in relation to the traffic flow data. In modelling the traffic flows from the real-world Highway England (HE) gathered dataset, a traffic flow objective function for highway road prediction models is proposed in a 3-stage framework including the topological breakdown of traffic network into virtual patches, further into nodes and to the basic links flow profiles behaviour estimations. The proposed objective function is tested with ten different prediction models including the statistical, shallow and deep learning constructed hybrid models for bi-directional links flow prediction methods. The effectiveness of the proposed objective function greatly enhances the accuracy of traffic flow prediction, regardless of the machine learning model used. The proposed prediction objective function base framework gives a new approach to model the traffic network to better understand the unknown traffic flow waves and the resulting congestions caused on a junction level. In addition, the results of applied Machine Learning models indicate that RNN variant LSTMs based models in conjunction with neural networks and Deep CNNs, when applied through the proposed objective function, outperforms other chosen machine learning methods for link flow predictions. The experimentation based practical findings reveal that to arrive at an efficient, robust, offline and accurate prediction model apart from feeding the ML mode with the correct representation of the network data, attention should be paid to the deep learning model structure, data pre-processing (i.e. normalisation) and the error matrices used for data behavioural learning. The proposed framework, in future can be utilised to address one of the main aims of the smart transport systems i.e. to reduce the error rates in network wide congestion predictions and the inflicted general traffic travel time delays in real-time