Ancestral Causal Inference

Constraint-based causal discovery from limited data is a notoriously difficult challenge due to the many borderline independence test decisions. Several approaches to improve the reliability of the predictions by exploiting redundancy in the independence information have been proposed recently. Though promising, existing approaches can still be greatly improved in terms of accuracy and scalability. We present a novel method that reduces the combinatorial explosion of the search space by using a more coarse-grained representation of causal information, drastically reducing computation time. Additionally, we propose a method to score causal predictions based on their confidence. Crucially, our implementation also allows one to easily combine observational and interventional data and to incorporate various types of available background knowledge. We prove soundness and asymptotic consistency of our method and demonstrate that it can outperform the state-of-the-art on synthetic data, achieving a speedup of several orders of magnitude. We illustrate its practical feasibility by applying it on a challenging protein data set.Comment: In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29 (NIPS 2016

On Sound Relative Error Bounds for Floating-Point Arithmetic

State-of-the-art static analysis tools for verifying finite-precision code compute worst-case absolute error bounds on numerical errors. These are, however, often not a good estimate of accuracy as they do not take into account the magnitude of the computed values. Relative errors, which compute errors relative to the value's magnitude, are thus preferable. While today's tools do report relative error bounds, these are merely computed via absolute errors and thus not necessarily tight or more informative. Furthermore, whenever the computed value is close to zero on part of the domain, the tools do not report any relative error estimate at all. Surprisingly, the quality of relative error bounds computed by today's tools has not been systematically studied or reported to date. In this paper, we investigate how state-of-the-art static techniques for computing sound absolute error bounds can be used, extended and combined for the computation of relative errors. Our experiments on a standard benchmark set show that computing relative errors directly, as opposed to via absolute errors, is often beneficial and can provide error estimates up to six orders of magnitude tighter, i.e. more accurate. We also show that interval subdivision, another commonly used technique to reduce over-approximations, has less benefit when computing relative errors directly, but it can help to alleviate the effects of the inherent issue of relative error estimates close to zero

Certainty Closure: Reliable Constraint Reasoning with Incomplete or Erroneous Data

Constraint Programming (CP) has proved an effective paradigm to model and solve difficult combinatorial satisfaction and optimisation problems from disparate domains. Many such problems arising from the commercial world are permeated by data uncertainty. Existing CP approaches that accommodate uncertainty are less suited to uncertainty arising due to incomplete and erroneous data, because they do not build reliable models and solutions guaranteed to address the user's genuine problem as she perceives it. Other fields such as reliable computation offer combinations of models and associated methods to handle these types of uncertain data, but lack an expressive framework characterising the resolution methodology independently of the model. We present a unifying framework that extends the CP formalism in both model and solutions, to tackle ill-defined combinatorial problems with incomplete or erroneous data. The certainty closure framework brings together modelling and solving methodologies from different fields into the CP paradigm to provide reliable and efficient approches for uncertain constraint problems. We demonstrate the applicability of the framework on a case study in network diagnosis. We define resolution forms that give generic templates, and their associated operational semantics, to derive practical solution methods for reliable solutions.Comment: Revised versio