984 research outputs found
A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION-BASED HYBRID INTERVAL FUZZY PROGRAMMING APPROACH FOR OPTIMIZING THE TREATMENT OF RECOVERED OILY WATER
In this paper, a stochastic simulation-based hybrid interval fuzzy programming (SHIFP) approach
is developed to aid the decision-making process by solving fuzzy linear optimization problems.
Fuzzy set theory, probability theory, and interval analysis are integrated to take into account the
effect of imprecise information, subjective judgment, and variable environmental conditions. A
case study related to oily water treatment during offshore oil spill clean-up operations is conducted
to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach. The results suggest that producing a
random sequence of triangular fuzzy numbers in a given interval is equivalent to a normal
distribution when using the centroid defuzzification method. It also shows that the defuzzified
optimal solutions follow the normal distribution and range from 3,000-3,700 tons, given the
budget constraint (CAD 110,000-150,000). The normality seems to be able to propagate
throughout the optimization process, yet this interesting finding deserves more in-depth study
and needs more rigorous mathematical proof to validate its applicability and feasibility. In
addition, the optimal decision variables can be categorized into several groups with different
probability such that decision makers can wisely allocate limited resources with higher
confidence in a short period of time. This study is expected to advise the industries and
authorities on how to distribute resources and maximize the treatment efficiency of oily
water in a short period of time, particularly in the context of harsh environments
AGENT-BASED DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION MODELING AND EVOLUTIONARY REAL-TIME DECISION MAKING FOR LARGE-SCALE SYSTEMS
Computer simulations are routines programmed to imitate detailed system operations. They are utilized to evaluate system performance and/or predict future behaviors under certain settings. In complex cases where system operations cannot be formulated explicitly by analytical models, simulations become the dominant mode of analysis as they can model systems without relying on unrealistic or limiting assumptions and represent actual systems more faithfully. Two main streams exist in current simulation research and practice: discrete event simulation and agent-based simulation. This dissertation facilitates the marriage of the two. By integrating the agent-based modeling concepts into the discrete event simulation framework, we can take advantage of and eliminate the disadvantages of both methods.Although simulation can represent complex systems realistically, it is a descriptive tool without the capability of making decisions. However, it can be complemented by incorporating optimization routines. The most challenging problem is that large-scale simulation models normally take a considerable amount of computer time to execute so that the number of solution evaluations needed by most optimization algorithms is not feasible within a reasonable time frame. This research develops a highly efficient evolutionary simulation-based decision making procedure which can be applied in real-time management situations. It basically divides the entire process time horizon into a series of small time intervals and operates simulation optimization algorithms for those small intervals separately and iteratively. This method improves computational tractability by decomposing long simulation runs; it also enhances system dynamics by incorporating changing information/data as the event unfolds. With respect to simulation optimization, this procedure solves efficient analytical models which can approximate the simulation and guide the search procedure to approach near optimality quickly.The methods of agent-based discrete event simulation modeling and evolutionary simulation-based decision making developed in this dissertation are implemented to solve a set of disaster response planning problems. This research also investigates a unique approach to validating low-probability, high-impact simulation systems based on a concrete example problem. The experimental results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of our model compared to other existing systems
Quicklook Air Mobility Modeling
This research is a framework for understanding issues in modeling the military aspect of space, with particular regard to capturing its value. Space power is a difficult and far-reaching topic, with implications that go beyond the military aspects. The United States military increasingly relies on space-based systems and information for success in daily operations. Telecommunications, navigation and timing, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and weather prediction are instances of services that have become dependent on satellite systems. If this reliance on space is not fully understood, U.S. national security will be at risk as the result of space information degradation or denial. This research effort attempts to break new ground in organizing the interactions and interdependencies among space doctrine, space systems, system owner/operators, and space-based information users. An illustrative example, using GPS, is then examined to explore the approach. Analysis of GPS as it affects JDAM accuracy is modeled using the GPS Interference And Navigation Tool (GIANT)
IEEE Access Special Section Editorial: Big Data Technology and Applications in Intelligent Transportation
During the last few years, information technology and transportation industries, along with automotive manufacturers and academia, are focusing on leveraging intelligent transportation systems (ITS) to improve services related to driver experience, connected cars, Internet data plans for vehicles, traffic infrastructure, urban transportation systems, traffic collaborative management, road traffic accidents analysis, road traffic flow prediction, public transportation service plan, personal travel route plans, and the development of an effective ecosystem for vehicles, drivers, traffic controllers, city planners, and transportation applications. Moreover, the emerging technologies of the Internet of Things (IoT) and cloud computing have provided unprecedented opportunities for the development and realization of innovative intelligent transportation systems where sensors and mobile devices can gather information and cloud computing, allowing knowledge discovery, information sharing, and supported decision making. However, the development of such data-driven ITS requires the integration, processing, and analysis of plentiful information obtained from millions of vehicles, traffic infrastructures, smartphones, and other collaborative systems like weather stations and road safety and early warning systems. The huge amount of data generated by ITS devices is only of value if utilized in data analytics for decision-making such as accident prevention and detection, controlling road risks, reducing traffic carbon emissions, and other applications which bring big data analytics into the picture
A review of operations research methods applicable to wildfire management
Across the globe, wildfire-related destruction appears to be worsening despite increased fire suppression expenditure. At the same time, wildfire management is becoming increasingly complicated owing to factors such as an expanding wildland-urban interface, interagency resource sharing and the recognition of the beneficial effects of fire on ecosystems. Operations research is the use of analytical techniques such as mathematical modelling to analyse interactions between people, resources and the environment to aid decision-making in complex systems. Fire managers operate in a highly challenging decision environment characterised by complexity, multiple conflicting objectives and uncertainty. We assert that some of these difficulties can be resolved with the use of operations research methods. We present a range of operations research methods and discuss their applicability to wildfire management with illustrative examples drawn from the wildfire and disaster operations research literature
System Identification for the design of behavioral controllers in crowd evacuations
Behavioral modification using active instructions is a promising interventional method to optimize crowd evacuations. However, existing research efforts have been more focused on eliciting general principles of optimal behavior than providing explicit mechanisms to dynamically induce the desired behaviors, which could be claimed as a significant knowledge gap in crowd evacuation optimization. In particular, we propose using dynamic distancekeeping instructions to regulate pedestrian flows and improve safety and evacuation time. We investigate the viability of using Model Predictive Control (MPC) techniques to develop a behavioral controller that obtains the optimal distance-keeping instructions to modulate the pedestrian density at bottlenecks. System Identification is proposed as a general methodology to model crowd dynamics and build prediction models. Thus, for a testbed evacuation scenario and input?output data generated from designed microscopic simulations, we estimate a linear AutoRegressive eXogenous model (ARX), which is used as the prediction model in the MPC controller. A microscopic simulation framework is used to validate the proposal that embeds the designed MPC controller, tuned and refined in closed-loop using the ARX model as the Plant model. As a significant contribution, the proposed combination of MPC control and System Identification to model crowd dynamics appears ideally suited to develop realistic and practical control systems for controlling crowd motion. The flexibility of MPC control technology to impose constraints on control variables and include different disturbance models in the prediction model has confirmed its suitability in the design of behavioral controllers in crowd evacuations. We found that an adequate selection of output disturbance models in the predictor is critical in the type of responses given by the controller. Interestingly, it is expected that this proposal can be extended to different evacuation scenarios, control variables, control systems, and multiple-input multiple-output control structures.Ministerio de Economía y Competitivida
OPTIMIZATION MODELS AND METHODOLOGIES TO SUPPORT EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS AND POST-DISASTER RESPONSE
This dissertation addresses three important optimization problems arising during the phases of pre-disaster emergency preparedness and post-disaster response in time-dependent, stochastic and dynamic environments.
The first problem studied is the building evacuation problem with shared information (BEPSI), which seeks a set of evacuation routes and the assignment of evacuees to these routes with the minimum total evacuation time. The BEPSI incorporates the constraints of shared information in providing on-line instructions to evacuees and ensures that evacuees departing from an intermediate or source location at a mutual point in time receive common instructions. A mixed-integer linear program is formulated for the BEPSI and an exact technique based on Benders decomposition is proposed for its solution. Numerical experiments conducted on a mid-sized real-world example demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.
The second problem addressed is the network resilience problem (NRP), involving
an indicator of network resilience proposed to quantify the ability of a network to recover from randomly arising disruptions resulting from a disaster event. A stochastic, mixed integer program is proposed for quantifying network resilience and identifying the optimal post-event course of action to take. A solution technique based on concepts of Benders decomposition, column generation and Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. Experiments were conducted to illustrate the resilience concept and procedure for its measurement, and to assess the role of network topology in its magnitude.
The last problem addressed is the urban search and rescue team deployment problem (USAR-TDP). The USAR-TDP seeks an optimal deployment of USAR teams to disaster sites, including the order of site visits, with the ultimate goal of maximizing the expected number of saved lives over the search and rescue period. A multistage stochastic program is proposed to capture problem uncertainty and dynamics. The solution technique involves the solution of a sequence of interrelated two-stage stochastic programs with recourse. A column generation-based technique is proposed for the solution of each problem instance arising as the start of each decision epoch over a time horizon. Numerical experiments conducted on an example of the 2010 Haiti earthquake are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach
- …