Application of neuro-fuzzy methods for stock market forecasting: a systematic review

Predicting stock prices is a challenging task owing to the market's chaos and uncertainty. Methods based on traditional approaches are unable to provide a solution to the market predictability issue. Thus, contemporary models using accurate neuro-fuzzy systems are found to be the most effective approach to tackling the problem. However, the existing literature lacks a detailed survey of the application of neuro-fuzzy techniques for stock market prediction. This paper presents a systematic literature review of the use of neuro-fuzzy systems for predicting stock market prices and trends.  On this basis, articles issued in various reputed international journals from 2000 to July 2022 were examined, 11 duplicates and 4 non-exclusive articles were removed and, as consequent, 24 eligible studies were retrieved for inclusion. Thus, analysis and discussions were based on two major viewpoints: predictor techniques and accuracy metrics. The review reveals that the researchers, based on their knowledge and research interests, applied a diverse neuro-fuzzy technique and shown stronger preference for certain neuro-fuzzy methods, such as ANFIS. To draw conclusions about the model performance, researchers chose different statistical and non-statistical metrics according to the technique used. It was finally observed that neuro-fuzzy approaches outperform, within its limits, conventional methods. However, each has its own set of constraints regarding the challenges involved in putting it into practice. The complexity of the presented approaches is the most significant potential obstacle that they face. Therefore, stock market prediction is a difficult undertaking, and multiple elements should be considered for accurate prediction. Yet, despite the subject's prominence, there are still promising new frontiers to explore and develop. Keywords: Fuzzy logic, Artificial neural network, Neuro-fuzzy, stock market forecasting JEL Classification: F37 Paper type: Theoretical Research  Predicting stock prices is a challenging task owing to the market's chaos and uncertainty. Methods based on traditional approaches are unable to provide a solution to the market predictability issue. Thus, contemporary models using accurate neuro-fuzzy systems are found to be the most effective approach to tackling the problem. However, the existing literature lacks a detailed survey of the application of neuro-fuzzy techniques for stock market prediction. This paper presents a systematic literature review of the use of neuro-fuzzy systems for predicting stock market prices and trends.  On this basis, articles issued in various reputed international journals from 2000 to July 2022 were examined, 11 duplicates and 4 non-exclusive articles were removed and, as consequent, 24 eligible studies were retrieved for inclusion. Thus, analysis and discussions were based on two major viewpoints: predictor techniques and accuracy metrics. The review reveals that the researchers, based on their knowledge and research interests, applied a diverse neuro-fuzzy technique and shown stronger preference for certain neuro-fuzzy methods, such as ANFIS. To draw conclusions about the model performance, researchers chose different statistical and non-statistical metrics according to the technique used. It was finally observed that neuro-fuzzy approaches outperform, within its limits, conventional methods. However, each has its own set of constraints regarding the challenges involved in putting it into practice. The complexity of the presented approaches is the most significant potential obstacle that they face. Therefore, stock market prediction is a difficult undertaking, and multiple elements should be considered for accurate prediction. Yet, despite the subject's prominence, there are still promising new frontiers to explore and develop. Keywords: Fuzzy logic, Artificial neural network, Neuro-fuzzy, stock market forecasting JEL Classification: F37 Paper type: Theoretical Research &nbsp

Forecasting in Mathematics

Mathematical probability and statistics are an attractive, thriving, and respectable part of mathematics. Some mathematicians and philosophers of science say they are the gateway to mathematics’ deepest mysteries. Moreover, mathematical statistics denotes an accumulation of mathematical discussions connected with efforts to most efficiently collect and use numerical data subject to random or deterministic variations. Currently, the concept of probability and mathematical statistics has become one of the fundamental notions of modern science and the philosophy of nature. This book is an illustration of the use of mathematics to solve specific problems in engineering, statistics, and science in general

Training Multilayer Perceptron with Genetic Algorithms and Particle Swarm Optimization for Modeling Stock Price Index Prediction

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Dynamic non-linear system modelling using wavelet-based soft computing techniques

The enormous number of complex systems results in the necessity of high-level and cost-efficient modelling structures for the operators and system designers. Model-based approaches offer a very challenging way to integrate a priori knowledge into the procedure. Soft computing based models in particular, can successfully be applied in cases of highly nonlinear problems. A further reason for dealing with so called soft computational model based techniques is that in real-world cases, many times only partial, uncertain and/or inaccurate data is available. Wavelet-Based soft computing techniques are considered, as one of the latest trends in system identification/modelling. This thesis provides a comprehensive synopsis of the main wavelet-based approaches to model the non-linear dynamical systems in real world problems in conjunction with possible twists and novelties aiming for more accurate and less complex modelling structure. Initially, an on-line structure and parameter design has been considered in an adaptive Neuro- Fuzzy (NF) scheme. The problem of redundant membership functions and consequently fuzzy rules is circumvented by applying an adaptive structure. The growth of a special type of Fungus (Monascus ruber van Tieghem) is examined against several other approaches for further justification of the proposed methodology. By extending the line of research, two Morlet Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) structures have been introduced. Increasing the accuracy and decreasing the computational cost are both the primary targets of proposed novelties. Modifying the synoptic weights by replacing them with Linear Combination Weights (LCW) and also imposing a Hybrid Learning Algorithm (HLA) comprising of Gradient Descent (GD) and Recursive Least Square (RLS), are the tools utilised for the above challenges. These two models differ from the point of view of structure while they share the same HLA scheme. The second approach contains an additional Multiplication layer, plus its hidden layer contains several sub-WNNs for each input dimension. The practical superiority of these extensions is demonstrated by simulation and experimental results on real non-linear dynamic system; Listeria Monocytogenes survival curves in Ultra-High Temperature (UHT) whole milk, and consolidated with comprehensive comparison with other suggested schemes. At the next stage, the extended clustering-based fuzzy version of the proposed WNN schemes, is presented as the ultimate structure in this thesis. The proposed Fuzzy Wavelet Neural network (FWNN) benefitted from Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) clustering feature, updated by a modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. One of the main aims of this thesis is to illustrate how the GMM-EM scheme could be used not only for detecting useful knowledge from the data by building accurate regression, but also for the identification of complex systems. The structure of FWNN is based on the basis of fuzzy rules including wavelet functions in the consequent parts of rules. In order to improve the function approximation accuracy and general capability of the FWNN system, an efficient hybrid learning approach is used to adjust the parameters of dilation, translation, weights, and membership. Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is employed for wavelet parameters adjustment together with Weighted Least Square (WLS) which is dedicated for the Linear Combination Weights fine-tuning. The results of a real-world application of Short Time Load Forecasting (STLF) further re-enforced the plausibility of the above technique

Do artificial neural networks provide improved volatility forecasts: evidence from Asian markets

This paper enters the ongoing volatility forecasting debate by examining the ability of a wide range of Machine Learning methods (ML), and specifically Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. The ANN models are compared against traditional econometric models for ten Asian markets using daily data for the time period from 12 September 1994 to 05 March 2018. The empirical results indicate that ML algorithms, across the range of countries, can better approximate dependencies compared to traditional benchmark models. Notably, the predictive performance of such deep learning models is superior perhaps due to its ability in capturing long-range dependencies. For example, the Neuro Fuzzy models of ANFIS and CANFIS, which outperform the EGARCH model, are more flexible in modelling both asymmetry and long memory properties. This offers new insights for Asian markets. In addition to standard statistics forecast metrics, we also consider risk management measures including the value-at-risk (VaR) average failure rate, the Kupiec LR test, the Christoffersen independence test, the expected shortfall (ES) and the dynamic quantile test. The study concludes that ML algorithms provide improving volatility forecasts in the stock markets of Asia and suggest that this may be a fruitful approach for risk management

A forecasting of indices and corresponding investment decision making application

Student Number : 9702018F - MSc(Eng) Dissertation - School of Electrical and Information Engineering - Faculty of Engineering and the Built EnvironmentDue to the volatile nature of the world economies, investing is crucial in ensuring an individual is prepared for future financial necessities. This research proposes an application, which employs computational intelligent methods that could assist investors in making financial decisions. This system consists of 2 components. The Forecasting Component (FC) is employed to predict the closing index price performance. Based on these predictions, the Stock Quantity Selection Component (SQSC) recommends the investor to purchase stocks, hold the current investment position or sell stocks in possession. The development of the FC module involved the creation of Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) as well as Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network classifiers. TCategorizes that these networks classify are based on a profitable trading strategy that outperforms the long-term “Buy and hold” trading strategy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) All Share, Nasdaq 100 and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average indices are considered. TIt has been determined that the MLP neural network architecture is particularly suited in the prediction of closing index price performance. Accuracies of 72%, 68%, 69% and 64% were obtained for the prediction of closing price performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, JSE All Share, Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 Stock Average indices, respectively. TThree designs of the Stock Quantity Selection Component were implemented and compared in terms of their complexity as well as scalability. TComplexity is defined as the number of classifiers employed by the design. Scalability is defined as the ability of the design to accommodate the classification of additional investment recommendations. TDesigns that utilized 1, 4 and 16 classifiers, respectively, were developed. These designs were implemented using MLP neural networks, RBF neural networks, Fuzzy Inference Systems as well as Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems. The design that employed 4 classifiers achieved low complexity and high scalability. As a result, this design is most appropriate for the application of concern. It has also been determined that the neural network architecture as well as the Fuzzy Inference System implementation of this design performed equally well

State-of-the-art in stock prediction techniques

ABSTRACT: Stock markets are affected by many uncertainties and interrelated economic and political factors at both local and global levels. The key to successful stock market forecasting is achieving best results with minimum required input data. To determine the set of relevant factors for making accurate predictions is a complicated task and so regular stock market analysis is very essential. More specifically, the stock market's movements are analyzed and predicted in order to retrieve knowledge that could guide investors on when to buy and sell. It will also help the investor to make money through his investment in the stock market. This paper surveys large number of resources from research papers, web-sources, company reports and other available sources

Neuro-Fuzzy Based Intelligent Approaches to Nonlinear System Identification and Forecasting

Nearly three decades back nonlinear system identification consisted of several ad-hoc approaches, which were restricted to a very limited class of systems. However, with the advent of the various soft computing methodologies like neural networks and the fuzzy logic combined with optimization techniques, a wider class of systems can be handled at present. Complex systems may be of diverse characteristics and nature. These systems may be linear or nonlinear, continuous or discrete, time varying or time invariant, static or dynamic, short term or long term, central or distributed, predictable or unpredictable, ill or well defined. Neurofuzzy hybrid modelling approaches have been developed as an ideal technique for utilising linguistic values and numerical data. This Thesis is focused on the development of advanced neurofuzzy modelling architectures and their application to real case studies. Three potential requirements have been identified as desirable characteristics for such design: A model needs to have minimum number of rules; a model needs to be generic acting either as Multi-Input-Single-Output (MISO) or Multi-Input-Multi-Output (MIMO) identification model; a model needs to have a versatile nonlinear membership function. Initially, a MIMO Adaptive Fuzzy Logic System (AFLS) model which incorporates a prototype defuzzification scheme, while utilising an efficient, compared to the Takagi–Sugeno–Kang (TSK) based systems, fuzzification layer has been developed for the detection of meat spoilage using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. The identification strategy involved not only the classification of beef fillet samples in their respective quality class (i.e. fresh, semi-fresh and spoiled), but also the simultaneous prediction of their associated microbiological population directly from FTIR spectra. In the case of AFLS, the number of memberships for each input variable was directly associated to the number of rules, hence, the “curse of dimensionality” problem was significantly reduced. Results confirmed the advantage of the proposed scheme against Adaptive Neurofuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Partial Least Squares (PLS) techniques used in the same case study. In the case of MISO systems, the TSK based structure, has been utilized in many neurofuzzy systems, like ANFIS. At the next stage of research, an Adaptive Fuzzy Inference Neural Network (AFINN) has been developed for the monitoring the spoilage of minced beef utilising multispectral imaging information. This model, which follows the TSK structure, incorporates a clustering pre-processing stage for the definition of fuzzy rules, while its final fuzzy rule base is determined by competitive learning. In this specific case study, AFINN model was also able to predict for the first time in the literature, the beef’s temperature directly from imaging information. Results again proved the superiority of the adopted model. By extending the line of research and adopting specific design concepts from the previous case studies, the Asymmetric Gaussian Fuzzy Inference Neural Network (AGFINN) architecture has been developed. This architecture has been designed based on the above design principles. A clustering preprocessing scheme has been applied to minimise the number of fuzzy rules. AGFINN incorporates features from the AFLS concept, by having the same number of rules as well as fuzzy memberships. In spite of the extensive use of the standard symmetric Gaussian membership functions, AGFINN utilizes an asymmetric function acting as input linguistic node. Since the asymmetric Gaussian membership function’s variability and flexibility are higher than the traditional one, it can partition the input space more effectively. AGFINN can be built either as an MISO or as an MIMO system. In the MISO case, a TSK defuzzification scheme has been implemented, while two different learning algorithms have been implemented. AGFINN has been tested on real datasets related to electricity price forecasting for the ISO New England Power Distribution System. Its performance was compared against a number of alternative models, including ANFIS, AFLS, MLP and Wavelet Neural Network (WNN), and proved to be superior. The concept of asymmetric functions proved to be a valid hypothesis and certainly it can find application to other architectures, such as in Fuzzy Wavelet Neural Network models, by designing a suitable flexible wavelet membership function. AGFINN’s MIMO characteristics also make the proposed architecture suitable for a larger range of applications/problems