An incremental explanation of inference in Bayesian networks for increasing model trustworthiness and supporting clinical decision making

Various AI models are increasingly being considered as part of clinical decision-support tools. However, the trustworthiness of such models is rarely considered. Clinicians are more likely to use a model if they can understand and trust its predictions. Key to this is if its underlying reasoning can be explained. A Bayesian network (BN) model has the advantage that it is not a black-box and its reasoning can be explained. In this paper, we propose an incremental explanation of inference that can be applied to ‘hybrid’ BNs, i.e. those that contain both discrete and continuous nodes. The key questions that we answer are: (1) which important evidence supports or contradicts the prediction, and (2) through which intermediate variables does the information flow. The explanation is illustrated using a real clinical case study. A small evaluation study is also conducted

Bayesian Networks for Clinical Decision Making : Support, Assurance, Trust

PhD thesisBayesian networks have been widely proposed to assist clinical decision making. Their popularity is due to their ability to combine different sources of information and reason under uncertainty, using sound probabilistic laws. Despite their benefit, there is still a gap between developing a Bayesian network that has a good predictive accuracy and having a model that makes a significant difference to clinical decision making. This thesis tries to bridge that gap and proposes three novel contributions. The first contribution is a modelling approach that captures the progress of an acute condition and the dynamic way that clinicians gather information and take decisions in irregular stages of care. The proposed method shows how to design a model to generate predictions with the potential to support decision making in successive stages of care. The second contribution is to show how counterfactual reasoning with a Bayesian network can be used as a healthcare governance tool to estimate the effect of treatment decisions other than those occurred. In addition, we extend counterfactual reasoning in situations where the targeted decision and its effect belong to different stages of the patient’s care. The third contribution is an explanation of the Bayesian network’s reasoning. No model is going to be used if it is unclear how it reasons. Presenting an explanation, alongside a prediction, has the potential to increase the acceptability of the network. The proposed technique indicates which important evidence supports or contradicts the prediction and through which intermediate variables the information flows. The above contributions are explored using two clinical case studies. A clinical case study on combat trauma care is used to investigate the first two contributions. The third contribution is explored using a Bayesian network developed by others to provide decision support in treating acute traumatic coagulopathy in the emergency department. Both case studies are done in collaboration with the Royal London Hospital and the Royal Centre for Defence Medicine

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI): What we know and what is left to attain Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence

This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (No. 2021R1A2C1011198) , (Institute for Information & communications Technology Planning & Evaluation) (IITP) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) under the ICT Creative Consilience Program (IITP-2021-2020-0-01821) , and AI Platform to Fully Adapt and Reflect Privacy-Policy Changes (No. 2022-0-00688).Artificial intelligence (AI) is currently being utilized in a wide range of sophisticated applications, but the outcomes of many AI models are challenging to comprehend and trust due to their black-box nature. Usually, it is essential to understand the reasoning behind an AI mode ľs decision-making. Thus, the need for eXplainable AI (XAI) methods for improving trust in AI models has arisen. XAI has become a popular research subject within the AI field in recent years. Existing survey papers have tackled the concepts of XAI, its general terms, and post-hoc explainability methods but there have not been any reviews that have looked at the assessment methods, available tools, XAI datasets, and other related aspects. Therefore, in this comprehensive study, we provide readers with an overview of the current research and trends in this rapidly emerging area with a case study example. The study starts by explaining the background of XAI, common definitions, and summarizing recently proposed techniques in XAI for supervised machine learning. The review divides XAI techniques into four axes using a hierarchical categorization system: (i) data explainability, (ii) model explainability, (iii) post-hoc explainability, and (iv) assessment of explanations. We also introduce available evaluation metrics as well as open-source packages and datasets with future research directions. Then, the significance of explainability in terms of legal demands, user viewpoints, and application orientation is outlined, termed as XAI concerns. This paper advocates for tailoring explanation content to specific user types. An examination of XAI techniques and evaluation was conducted by looking at 410 critical articles, published between January 2016 and October 2022, in reputed journals and using a wide range of research databases as a source of information. The article is aimed at XAI researchers who are interested in making their AI models more trustworthy, as well as towards researchers from other disciplines who are looking for effective XAI methods to complete tasks with confidence while communicating meaning from data.National Research Foundation of Korea Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning, Republic of Korea Ministry of Science & ICT (MSIT), Republic of Korea 2021R1A2C1011198Institute for Information amp; communications Technology Planning amp; Evaluation) (IITP) - Korea government (MSIT) under the ICT Creative Consilience Program IITP-2021-2020-0-01821AI Platform to Fully Adapt and Reflect Privacy-Policy Changes2022-0-0068

Mapping of machine learning approaches for description, prediction, and causal inference in the social and health sciences

Machine learning (ML) methodology used in the social and health sciences needs to fit the intended research purposes of description, prediction, or causal inference. This paper provides a comprehensive, systematic meta-mapping of research questions in the social and health sciences to appropriate ML approaches by incorporating the necessary requirements to statistical analysis in these disciplines. We map the established classification into description, prediction, counterfactual prediction, and causal structural learning to common research goals, such as estimating prevalence of adverse social or health outcomes, predicting the risk of an event, and identifying risk factors or causes of adverse outcomes, and explain common ML performance metrics. Such mapping may help to fully exploit the benefits of ML while considering domain-specific aspects relevant to the social and health sciences and hopefully contribute to the acceleration of the uptake of ML applications to advance both basic and applied social and health sciences research

Multimodal Explainable Artificial Intelligence: A Comprehensive Review of Methodological Advances and Future Research Directions

The current study focuses on systematically analyzing the recent advances in the field of Multimodal eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (MXAI). In particular, the relevant primary prediction tasks and publicly available datasets are initially described. Subsequently, a structured presentation of the MXAI methods of the literature is provided, taking into account the following criteria: a) The number of the involved modalities, b) The stage at which explanations are produced, and c) The type of the adopted methodology (i.e. mathematical formalism). Then, the metrics used for MXAI evaluation are discussed. Finally, a comprehensive analysis of current challenges and future research directions is provided.Comment: 26 pages, 11 figure

On Experimentation in Software-Intensive Systems

Context: Delivering software that has value to customers is a primary concern of every software company. Prevalent in web-facing companies, controlled experiments are used to validate and deliver value in incremental deployments. At the same that web-facing companies are aiming to automate and reduce the cost of each experiment iteration, embedded systems companies are starting to adopt experimentation practices and leverage their activities on the automation developments made in the online domain. Objective: This thesis has two main objectives. The first objective is to analyze how software companies can run and optimize their systems through automated experiments. This objective is investigated from the perspectives of the software architecture, the algorithms for the experiment execution and the experimentation process. The second objective is to analyze how non web-facing companies can adopt experimentation as part of their development process to validate and deliver value to their customers continuously. This objective is investigated from the perspectives of the software development process and focuses on the experimentation aspects that are distinct from web-facing companies. Method: To achieve these objectives, we conducted research in close collaboration with industry and used a combination of different empirical research methods: case studies, literature reviews, simulations, and empirical evaluations. Results: This thesis provides six main results. First, it proposes an architecture framework for automated experimentation that can be used with different types of experimental designs in both embedded systems and web-facing systems. Second, it proposes a new experimentation process to capture the details of a trustworthy experimentation process that can be used as the basis for an automated experimentation process. Third, it identifies the restrictions and pitfalls of different multi-armed bandit algorithms for automating experiments in industry. This thesis also proposes a set of guidelines to help practitioners select a technique that minimizes the occurrence of these pitfalls. Fourth, it proposes statistical models to analyze optimization algorithms that can be used in automated experimentation. Fifth, it identifies the key challenges faced by embedded systems companies when adopting controlled experimentation, and we propose a set of strategies to address these challenges. Sixth, it identifies experimentation techniques and proposes a new continuous experimentation model for mission-critical and business-to-business. Conclusion: The results presented in this thesis indicate that the trustworthiness in the experimentation process and the selection of algorithms still need to be addressed before automated experimentation can be used at scale in industry. The embedded systems industry faces challenges in adopting experimentation as part of its development process. In part, this is due to the low number of users and devices that can be used in experiments and the diversity of the required experimental designs for each new situation. This limitation increases both the complexity of the experimentation process and the number of techniques used to address this constraint