Integrate the GM(1,1) and Verhulst models to predict software stage effort

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below. Copyright @ 2009 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other users, including reprinting/ republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted components of this work in other works.Software effort prediction clearly plays a crucial role in software project management. In keeping with more dynamic approaches to software development, it is not sufficient to only predict the whole-project effort at an early stage. Rather, the project manager must also dynamically predict the effort of different stages or activities during the software development process. This can assist the project manager to reestimate effort and adjust the project plan, thus avoiding effort or schedule overruns. This paper presents a method for software physical time stage-effort prediction based on grey models GM(1,1) and Verhulst. This method establishes models dynamically according to particular types of stage-effort sequences, and can adapt to particular development methodologies automatically by using a novel grey feedback mechanism. We evaluate the proposed method with a large-scale real-world software engineering dataset, and compare it with the linear regression method and the Kalman filter method, revealing that accuracy has been improved by at least 28% and 50%, respectively. The results indicate that the method can be effective and has considerable potential. We believe that stage predictions could be a useful complement to whole-project effort prediction methods.National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Hi-Tech Research and Development Program of Chin

A particle swarm optimisation-based Grey prediction model for thermal error compensation on CNC machine tools

Thermal errors can have a significant effect on CNC machine tool accuracy. The thermal error compensation system has become a cost-effective method of improving machine tool accuracy in recent years. In the presented paper, the Grey relational analysis (GRA) was employed to obtain the similarity degrees between fixed temperature sensors and the thermal response of the CNC machine tool structure. Subsequently, a new Grey model with convolution integral GMC(1, N) is used to design a thermal prediction model. To improve the accuracy of the proposed model, the generation coefficients of GMC(1, N) are calibrated using an adaptive Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) algorithm. The results demonstrate good agreement between the experimental and predicted thermal error. Finally, the capabilities and the limitations of the model for thermal error compensation have been discussed. Keywords: CNC machine tool, Thermal error modelling, ANFIS, Fuzzy logic, Grey system theory

Scalable BGP Prefix Selection for Effective Inter-domain Traffic Engineering

Inter-domain Traffic Engineering for multi-homed networks faces a scalability challenge, as the size of BGP routing table continue to grow. In this context, the choice of the best path must be made potentially for each destination prefix, requiring all available paths to be characterised (e.g., through measurements) and compared with each other. Fortunately, it is well-known that a few number of prefixes carry the larger part of the traffic. As a natural consequence, to engineer large volume of traffic only few prefixes need to be managed. Yet, traffic characteristics of a given prefix can greatly vary over time, and little is known on the dynamism of traffic at this aggregation level, including predicting the set of the most significant prefixes in the near future. %based on past observations. Sophisticated prediction methods won't scale in such context. In this paper, we study the relationship between prefix volume, stability, and predictability, based on recent traffic traces from nine different networks. Three simple and resource-efficient methods to select the prefixes associated with the most important foreseeable traffic volume are then proposed. Such proposed methods allow to select sets of prefixes with both excellent representativeness (volume coverage) and stability in time, for which the best routes are identified. The analysis carried out confirm the potential benefits of a route decision engine

Improvements In computed tomography perfusion output using complex singular value decomposition and the maximum slope algorithm

OBJECTIVE: Determine if complex singular value decomposition (cSVD) used as preprocessing in the maximum slope algorithm reduces image noise of resultant physiologic parametric images. Noise will be decreased in the parametric maps of cerebral blood flow (CBF), cerebral blood volume (CBV) as compared to the same algorithm and data set with no cSVD applied. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A set of 10 patients (n=15) underwent a total combined 15 CT perfusion studies upon presenting with stroke symptoms. It was determined these patients suffered from occlusions resulting in a prolonged arrival time of blood to the brain. DICOM data files of these patients scans were selected based on this increased arrival delay. We compared the output of estimation calculations for cerebral blood flow (CBF), and cerebral blood volume (CBV), using preprocessing cSVD against the same scan data with no preprocessing cSVD. Image noise was assessed through the calculation of the standard deviation within specific regions of interest copied to specific areas of grey and white matter as well as CSF space. A decrease in the standard deviation values will indicate improvement in the noise level of the resultant images.. Results for the mean value within the regions of interest are expected to be similar between the groups calculated using cSVD and those calculated under the standard method. This will indicate the presence of minimal bias. RESULTS: Between groups of the standard processing method and the cSVD method standard deviation (SD) reductions were seen in both CBF and CBV values across all three ROIs. In grey matter measures of CBV, SD was reduced an average of 0.0034 mL/100g while measures of CBF saw SD reduced by an average of 0.073 mL/100g/min. In samples of white matter, standard deviations of CBV values were reduced on average by 0.0041mL/100g while CBF SD's were reduced by 0.073 mL/100g/min. CSF ROIs in CBV calculations saw SD reductions averaging 0.0047 mL/100g and reductions of 0.074 mL/100g/min in measures of CBF. Bias within CBV calculations was at most minimal as determined by no significant changes in mean calculated values. Calculations of CBF saw large downward bias in the mean values. CONCLUSIONS: The application of the cSVD method to preprocessing of CT perfusion imaging studies produces an effective method of noise reduction. In calculations of CBV, cSVD noise reduction results in overall improvement. In calculations of CBF, cSVD, while effective in noise reduction, caused mean values to be statistically lower than the standard method. It should be noted that there is currently no evaluation of which values can be considered more accurate physiologically. Simulations of the effect of noise on CBF showed a positive correlation suggesting that the CBF algorithm itself is sensitive to the level of noise

A cell outage management framework for dense heterogeneous networks

In this paper, we present a novel cell outage management (COM) framework for heterogeneous networks with split control and data planes-a candidate architecture for meeting future capacity, quality-of-service, and energy efficiency demands. In such an architecture, the control and data functionalities are not necessarily handled by the same node. The control base stations (BSs) manage the transmission of control information and user equipment (UE) mobility, whereas the data BSs handle UE data. An implication of this split architecture is that an outage to a BS in one plane has to be compensated by other BSs in the same plane. Our COM framework addresses this challenge by incorporating two distinct cell outage detection (COD) algorithms to cope with the idiosyncrasies of both data and control planes. The COD algorithm for control cells leverages the relatively larger number of UEs in the control cell to gather large-scale minimization-of-drive-test report data and detects an outage by applying machine learning and anomaly detection techniques. To improve outage detection accuracy, we also investigate and compare the performance of two anomaly-detecting algorithms, i.e., k-nearest-neighbor- and local-outlier-factor-based anomaly detectors, within the control COD. On the other hand, for data cell COD, we propose a heuristic Grey-prediction-based approach, which can work with the small number of UE in the data cell, by exploiting the fact that the control BS manages UE-data BS connectivity and by receiving a periodic update of the received signal reference power statistic between the UEs and data BSs in its coverage. The detection accuracy of the heuristic data COD algorithm is further improved by exploiting the Fourier series of the residual error that is inherent to a Grey prediction model. Our COM framework integrates these two COD algorithms with a cell outage compensation (COC) algorithm that can be applied to both planes. Our COC solution utilizes an actor-critic-based reinforcement learning algorithm, which optimizes the capacity and coverage of the identified outage zone in a plane, by adjusting the antenna gain and transmission power of the surrounding BSs in that plane. The simulation results show that the proposed framework can detect both data and control cell outage and compensate for the detected outage in a reliable manner

Multi-agent quality of experience control

In the framework of the Future Internet, the aim of the Quality of Experience (QoE) Control functionalities is to track the personalized desired QoE level of the applications. The paper proposes to perform such a task by dynamically selecting the most appropriate Classes of Service (among the ones supported by the network), this selection being driven by a novel heuristic Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) algorithm. The paper shows that such an approach offers the opportunity to cope with some practical implementation problems: in particular, it allows to face the so-called “curse of dimensionality” of MARL algorithms, thus achieving satisfactory performance results even in the presence of several hundreds of Agents

Investigation of the neurovascular coupling in positive and negative BOLD responses in human brain at 7T

Decreases in stimulus-dependent blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) signal and their underlying neurovascular origins have recently gained considerable interest. In this study a multi-echo, BOLD-corrected vascular space occupancy (VASO) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) technique was used to investigate neurovascular responses during stimuli that elicit positive and negative BOLD responses in human brain at 7 T. Stimulus-induced BOLD, cerebral blood volume (CBV), and cerebral blood flow (CBF) changes were measured and analyzed in ‘arterial’ and ‘venous’ blood compartments in macro- and microvasculature. We found that the overall interplay of mean CBV, CBF and BOLD responses is similar for tasks inducing positive and negative BOLD responses. Some aspects of the neurovascular coupling however, such as the temporal response, cortical depth dependence, and the weighting between ‘arterial’ and ‘venous’ contributions, are significantly different for the different task conditions. Namely, while for excitatory tasks the BOLD response peaks at the cortical surface, and the CBV change is similar in cortex and pial vasculature, inhibitory tasks are associated with a maximum negative BOLD response in deeper layers, with CBV showing strong constriction of surface arteries and a faster return to baseline. The different interplays of CBV, CBF and BOLD during excitatory and inhibitory responses suggests different underlying hemodynamic mechanisms