A Factor Graph Approach to Automated Design of Bayesian Signal Processing Algorithms

The benefits of automating design cycles for Bayesian inference-based algorithms are becoming increasingly recognized by the machine learning community. As a result, interest in probabilistic programming frameworks has much increased over the past few years. This paper explores a specific probabilistic programming paradigm, namely message passing in Forney-style factor graphs (FFGs), in the context of automated design of efficient Bayesian signal processing algorithms. To this end, we developed "ForneyLab" (https://github.com/biaslab/ForneyLab.jl) as a Julia toolbox for message passing-based inference in FFGs. We show by example how ForneyLab enables automatic derivation of Bayesian signal processing algorithms, including algorithms for parameter estimation and model comparison. Crucially, due to the modular makeup of the FFG framework, both the model specification and inference methods are readily extensible in ForneyLab. In order to test this framework, we compared variational message passing as implemented by ForneyLab with automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI) and Monte Carlo methods as implemented by state-of-the-art tools "Edward" and "Stan". In terms of performance, extensibility and stability issues, ForneyLab appears to enjoy an edge relative to its competitors for automated inference in state-space models.Comment: Accepted for publication in the International Journal of Approximate Reasonin

Noisy Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for doubly-intractable distributions

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has been progressively incorporated within the statistician's toolbox as an alternative sampling method in settings when standard Metropolis-Hastings is inefficient. HMC generates a Markov chain on an augmented state space with transitions based on a deterministic differential flow derived from Hamiltonian mechanics. In practice, the evolution of Hamiltonian systems cannot be solved analytically, requiring numerical integration schemes. Under numerical integration, the resulting approximate solution no longer preserves the measure of the target distribution, therefore an accept-reject step is used to correct the bias. For doubly-intractable distributions -- such as posterior distributions based on Gibbs random fields -- HMC suffers from some computational difficulties: computation of gradients in the differential flow and computation of the accept-reject proposals poses difficulty. In this paper, we study the behaviour of HMC when these quantities are replaced by Monte Carlo estimates

Sharing Social Network Data: Differentially Private Estimation of Exponential-Family Random Graph Models

Motivated by a real-life problem of sharing social network data that contain sensitive personal information, we propose a novel approach to release and analyze synthetic graphs in order to protect privacy of individual relationships captured by the social network while maintaining the validity of statistical results. A case study using a version of the Enron e-mail corpus dataset demonstrates the application and usefulness of the proposed techniques in solving the challenging problem of maintaining privacy \emph{and} supporting open access to network data to ensure reproducibility of existing studies and discovering new scientific insights that can be obtained by analyzing such data. We use a simple yet effective randomized response mechanism to generate synthetic networks under $\epsilon$-edge differential privacy, and then use likelihood based inference for missing data and Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to fit exponential-family random graph models to the generated synthetic networks.Comment: Updated, 39 page

Optimal Clustering under Uncertainty

Classical clustering algorithms typically either lack an underlying probability framework to make them predictive or focus on parameter estimation rather than defining and minimizing a notion of error. Recent work addresses these issues by developing a probabilistic framework based on the theory of random labeled point processes and characterizing a Bayes clusterer that minimizes the number of misclustered points. The Bayes clusterer is analogous to the Bayes classifier. Whereas determining a Bayes classifier requires full knowledge of the feature-label distribution, deriving a Bayes clusterer requires full knowledge of the point process. When uncertain of the point process, one would like to find a robust clusterer that is optimal over the uncertainty, just as one may find optimal robust classifiers with uncertain feature-label distributions. Herein, we derive an optimal robust clusterer by first finding an effective random point process that incorporates all randomness within its own probabilistic structure and from which a Bayes clusterer can be derived that provides an optimal robust clusterer relative to the uncertainty. This is analogous to the use of effective class-conditional distributions in robust classification. After evaluating the performance of robust clusterers in synthetic mixtures of Gaussians models, we apply the framework to granular imaging, where we make use of the asymptotic granulometric moment theory for granular images to relate robust clustering theory to the application.Comment: 19 pages, 5 eps figures, 1 tabl

Learning to Discover Sparse Graphical Models

We consider structure discovery of undirected graphical models from observational data. Inferring likely structures from few examples is a complex task often requiring the formulation of priors and sophisticated inference procedures. Popular methods rely on estimating a penalized maximum likelihood of the precision matrix. However, in these approaches structure recovery is an indirect consequence of the data-fit term, the penalty can be difficult to adapt for domain-specific knowledge, and the inference is computationally demanding. By contrast, it may be easier to generate training samples of data that arise from graphs with the desired structure properties. We propose here to leverage this latter source of information as training data to learn a function, parametrized by a neural network that maps empirical covariance matrices to estimated graph structures. Learning this function brings two benefits: it implicitly models the desired structure or sparsity properties to form suitable priors, and it can be tailored to the specific problem of edge structure discovery, rather than maximizing data likelihood. Applying this framework, we find our learnable graph-discovery method trained on synthetic data generalizes well: identifying relevant edges in both synthetic and real data, completely unknown at training time. We find that on genetics, brain imaging, and simulation data we obtain performance generally superior to analytical methods