Lagrangian Time Series Models for Ocean Surface Drifter Trajectories

This paper proposes stochastic models for the analysis of ocean surface trajectories obtained from freely-drifting satellite-tracked instruments. The proposed time series models are used to summarise large multivariate datasets and infer important physical parameters of inertial oscillations and other ocean processes. Nonstationary time series methods are employed to account for the spatiotemporal variability of each trajectory. Because the datasets are large, we construct computationally efficient methods through the use of frequency-domain modelling and estimation, with the data expressed as complex-valued time series. We detail how practical issues related to sampling and model misspecification may be addressed using semi-parametric techniques for time series, and we demonstrate the effectiveness of our stochastic models through application to both real-world data and to numerical model output.Comment: 21 pages, 10 figure

Classification videos reveal the visual information driving complex real-world speeded decisions

Humans can rapidly discriminate complex scenarios as they unfold in real time, for example during law enforcement or, more prosaically, driving and sport. Such decision-making improves with experience, as new sources of information are exploited. For example, sports experts are able to predict the outcome of their opponent’s next action (e.g. a tennis stroke) based on kinematic cues “read” from preparatory body movements. Here, we explore the use of psychophysical classification-image techniques to reveal how participants interpret complex scenarios. We used sport as a test case, filming tennis players serving and hitting ground strokes, each with two possible directions. These videos were presented to novices and club-level amateurs, running from 0.8 seconds before to 0.2 seconds after racquet-ball contact. During practice, participants anticipated shot direction under a time limit targeting 90% accuracy. Participants then viewed videos through Gaussian windows ("bubbles") placed at random in the temporal, spatial or spatiotemporal domains. Comparing bubbles from correct and incorrect trials revealed how information from different regions contributed toward a correct response. Temporally, only later frames of the videos supported accurate responding (from ~0.05 seconds before ball contact to 0.1+ seconds afterwards). Spatially, information was accrued from the ball’s trajectory and from the opponent’s head. Spatiotemporal bubbles again highlighted ball trajectory information, but seemed susceptible to an attentional cuing artefact, which may caution against their wider use. Overall, bubbles proved effective in revealing regions of information accrual, and could thus be applied to help understand choice behavior in a range of ecologically valid situations

Hand eye coordination in surgery

The coordination of the hand in response to visual target selection has always been regarded as an essential quality in a range of professional activities. This quality has thus far been elusive to objective scientific measurements, and is usually engulfed in the overall performance of the individuals. Parallels can be drawn to surgery, especially Minimally Invasive Surgery (MIS), where the physical constraints imposed by the arrangements of the instruments and visualisation methods require certain coordination skills that are unprecedented. With the current paradigm shift towards early specialisation in surgical training and shortened focused training time, selection process should identify trainees with the highest potentials in certain specific skills. Although significant effort has been made in objective assessment of surgical skills, it is only currently possible to measure surgeons’ abilities at the time of assessment. It has been particularly difficult to quantify specific details of hand-eye coordination and assess innate ability of future skills development. The purpose of this thesis is to examine hand-eye coordination in laboratory-based simulations, with a particular emphasis on details that are important to MIS. In order to understand the challenges of visuomotor coordination, movement trajectory errors have been used to provide an insight into the innate coordinate mapping of the brain. In MIS, novel spatial transformations, due to a combination of distorted endoscopic image projections and the “fulcrum” effect of the instruments, accentuate movement generation errors. Obvious differences in the quality of movement trajectories have been observed between novices and experts in MIS, however, this is difficult to measure quantitatively. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used in this thesis to reveal the underlying characteristic movement details of a particular MIS manoeuvre and how such features are exaggerated by the introduction of rotation in the endoscopic camera. The proposed method has demonstrated the feasibility of measuring movement trajectory quality by machine learning techniques without prior arbitrary classification of expertise. Experimental results have highlighted these changes in novice laparoscopic surgeons, even after a short period of training. The intricate relationship between the hands and the eyes changes when learning a skilled visuomotor task has been previously studied. Reactive eye movement, when visual input is used primarily as a feedback mechanism for error correction, implies difficulties in hand-eye coordination. As the brain learns to adapt to this new coordinate map, eye movements then become predictive of the action generated. The concept of measuring this spatiotemporal relationship is introduced as a measure of hand-eye coordination in MIS, by comparing the Target Distance Function (TDF) between the eye fixation and the instrument tip position on the laparoscopic screen. Further validation of this concept using high fidelity experimental tasks is presented, where higher cognitive influence and multiple target selection increase the complexity of the data analysis. To this end, Granger-causality is presented as a measure of the predictability of the instrument movement with the eye fixation pattern. Partial Directed Coherence (PDC), a frequency-domain variation of Granger-causality, is used for the first time to measure hand-eye coordination. Experimental results are used to establish the strengths and potential pitfalls of the technique. To further enhance the accuracy of this measurement, a modified Jensen-Shannon Divergence (JSD) measure has been developed for enhancing the signal matching algorithm and trajectory segmentations. The proposed framework incorporates high frequency noise filtering, which represents non-purposeful hand and eye movements. The accuracy of the technique has been demonstrated by quantitative measurement of multiple laparoscopic tasks by expert and novice surgeons. Experimental results supporting visual search behavioural theory are presented, as this underpins the target selection process immediately prior to visual motor action generation. The effects of specialisation and experience on visual search patterns are also examined. Finally, pilot results from functional brain imaging are presented, where the Posterior Parietal Cortical (PPC) activation is measured using optical spectroscopy techniques. PPC has been demonstrated to involve in the calculation of the coordinate transformations between the visual and motor systems, which establishes the possibilities of exciting future studies in hand-eye coordination

Computational modelling of imaging markers to support the diagnosis and monitoring of multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis is a leading cause of neurological disability in young adults which affects more than 2.5 million people worldwide. An important substrate of disability accrual is the loss of neurons and connections between them (neurodegeneration) which can be captured by serial brain imaging, especially in the cerebral grey matter. In this thesis in four separate subprojects, I aimed to assess the strength of imaging-derived grey matter volume as a biomarker in the diagnosis, predicting the evolution of multiple sclerosis, and developing a staging system to stratify patients. In total, I retrospectively studied 1701 subjects, of whom 1548 had longitudinal brain imaging data. I used advanced computational models to investigate cross-sectional and longitudinal datasets. In the cross-sectional study, I demonstrated that grey matter volumes could distinguish multiple sclerosis from another demyelinating disorder (neuromyelitis optica) with an accuracy of 74%. In longitudinal studies, I showed that over time the deep grey matter nuclei had the fastest rate of volume loss (up to 1.66% annual loss) across the brain regions in multiple sclerosis. The volume of the deep grey matter was the strongest predictor of disability progression. I found that multiple sclerosis affects different brain areas with a specific temporal order (or sequence) that starts with the deep grey matter nuclei, posterior cingulate cortex, precuneus, and cerebellum. Finally, with multivariate mechanistic and causal modelling, I showed that brain volume loss causes disability and cognitive worsening which can be delayed with a potential neuroprotective treatment (simvastatin). This work provides conclusive evidence that grey matter volume loss affects some brain regions more severely, can predict future disability progression, can be used as an outcome measure in phase II clinical trials, and causes clinical and cognitive worsening. This thesis also provides a subject staging system based on which patients can be scored during multiple sclerosis

Information-theoretic Reasoning in Distributed and Autonomous Systems

The increasing prevalence of distributed and autonomous systems is transforming decision making in industries as diverse as agriculture, environmental monitoring, and healthcare. Despite significant efforts, challenges remain in robustly planning under uncertainty. In this thesis, we present a number of information-theoretic decision rules for improving the analysis and control of complex adaptive systems. We begin with the problem of quantifying the data storage (memory) and transfer (communication) within information processing systems. We develop an information-theoretic framework to study nonlinear interactions within cooperative and adversarial scenarios, solely from observations of each agent's dynamics. This framework is applied to simulations of robotic soccer games, where the measures reveal insights into team performance, including correlations of the information dynamics to the scoreline. We then study the communication between processes with latent nonlinear dynamics that are observed only through a filter. By using methods from differential topology, we show that the information-theoretic measures commonly used to infer communication in observed systems can also be used in certain partially observed systems. For robotic environmental monitoring, the quality of data depends on the placement of sensors. These locations can be improved by either better estimating the quality of future viewpoints or by a team of robots operating concurrently. By robustly handling the uncertainty of sensor model measurements, we are able to present the first end-to-end robotic system for autonomously tracking small dynamic animals, with a performance comparable to human trackers. We then solve the issue of coordinating multi-robot systems through distributed optimisation techniques. These allow us to develop non-myopic robot trajectories for these tasks and, importantly, show that these algorithms provide guarantees for convergence rates to the optimal payoff sequence

Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling: An application to glacier satellite imagery

Glaciers hold 1.7% of the Earth's total water supply, but they contain 68.7% of its freshwater. Given the global warming trend, accurate and recent inventory is necessary to assess glacial changes over time. However, frequent cloud and debris cover often make it difficult to determine the glacier's exact edge. Multispectral Landsat 8 imagery along with data from the Global Land Ice Velocity Extraction (GoLIVE) project are combined to to create a Bayesian multivariate general additive model of the glaciers surrounding Mount Rainier, with Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Gaussian processes used to model the temporal and spatial autocorrelations. Using root mean square error and Watanabe-Akaike information criterion, all 42 combinations of ARMA models up to 4 total parameters and exponential, Matérn 1/2 and spherical covariance kernels were compared. The ARMA(3,1) processes with the exponential Gaussian process kernel was determined to be the best fit model. Gaussian mixture models, hierarchical clustering, hard and soft K-means clustering, and support vector machines are used to classify the posterior distribution. The hard K-means algorithm was the best classifier, and it accurately predicted 85.1% of the glaciers, compared to 68.8% from a univariate classification on the Red/SWIR band ratio