Analysis of the main drivers of CO2 emissions in different economies : the Spain and Chile cases

El cambio climático (CC) es uno de los grandes desafíos de la humanidad y una de las principales amenazas para el desarrollo sostenible, con grandes consecuencias económicas, sociales y ambientales. Por esta razón, es necesario reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) a la atmósfera, con el dióxido de carbono (CO2) como el principal gas, y obtener una mayor eficiencia energética. Ambas acciones son clave para mitigar el cambio climático. Para conocer con precisión las relaciones entre las variables económicas, demográficas y el volumen de emisiones de GEI que posibilitan el desacoplamiento entre el crecimiento económico y estas emisiones, es necesario medir estas interacciones. A través de estas mediciones, será posible diseñar proyectos energéticos que ayuden a cumplir los objetivos propuestos y llevar a cabo un análisis de los principales determinantes que podrían llevar a conclusiones que ayuden a establecer líneas de acción. El objetivo de este proyecto de tesis doctoral es analizar los determinantes de las emisiones de CO2 en dos economías; la española y la chilena. Esta elección se debe al proyecto de investigación existente entre nuestro grupo de investigación y la Universidad Autónoma de Chile. Las principales contribuciones de esta tesis pueden resumirse brevemente de la siguiente manera: Por un lado, presentamos un análisis de los principales factores determinantes de las emisiones de CO2 en España para el período 1995-2009. Esta investigación lleva a cabo un análisis multisectorial basado en el método Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI I). Los factores de descomposición utilizados representan la carbonización del mix energético (CI), la intensidad del uso de la energía (EI), la estructura económica (ES), la actividad económica (EA) y la población (P). Los principales hallazgos muestran que las fuentes de energía renovables (RES, por sus siglas en inglés) actuaron como compensador de los impulsores de las emisiones de CO2. La tendencia positiva de la contribución de las RES en la matriz energética de España, junto con la tendencia negativa en el uso de combustibles fósiles, nos lleva a ser optimistas. Por otro lado, presentamos una evaluación de las emisiones de CO2 en Chile entre 1991 y 2013 utilizando un análisis basado en el método (LMDI I) para examinar las emisiones y sus componentes. Se consideraron seis factores de descomposición: efecto intensidad de carbono (CI), efecto penetración de RES (RES), efecto intensidad de energía (EI), efecto estructura de la economía (ES), efecto ingreso (Yp) y efecto población (P). Para saber cómo estos factores podrían influirse mutuamente en el futuro, se utilizó el Innovative Accounting Approach (IAA), que incluye el análisis de la descomposición de la varianza y la función impulso-respuesta (IRF, pos sus siglas en inglés). Estas dos metodologías nos permiten identificar las causas de los cambios en las emisiones de CO2 en el periodo (1991-2013), evaluar las medidas de política y aprender cómo estos factores podrían influirse mutuamente en el futuro, para evaluar si las medidas actuales cumplen los compromisos de París. Los resultados del análisis LMDI muestran que el factor intensidad de energía es el principal factor de compensación de las emisiones de CO2 en Chile y el único efecto con una clara tendencia a ayudar al desacoplamiento entre crecimiento económico y emisiones de GHG. Los resultados del IAA e IFRs se comportan de manera similar y confirman que el factor intensidad de carbono reacciona a los impactos de manera más significativa en el corto plazo. La reacción a RES tiene el mismo comportamiento y opuesto a los shocks en ES y Yp, para desaparecer a largo plazo. Estos hallazgos representan una contribución importante, no sólo para los investigadores sino también para las empresas y responsables políticos. Para nuestro conocimiento no existen análisis previos de los principales impulsores de CO2 en estas economías. Estos resultados podrían conducir a conclusiones que ayuden a establecer líneas de acción para diseñar proyectos energéticos que ayuden a luchar eficazmente contra el cambio climático.Change (CC) is one of the great challenges of humanity and one of the main threats to sustainable development, with great economic, social and environmental consequences. For this reason, it is necessary to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the atmosphere, with carbon dioxide (CO2) the main one, and obtain greater awareness of energy efficiency. Both actions are key to mitigate climate change. In order to know precisely the relationships between economic, demographic variables and the volume of GHG emissions to make possible the decoupling between economic growth and these emissions, it is necessary to develop indicators capable of analyzing these interactions. Through these indicators, it will be possible to design energy projects that help to meet the proposed objectives and carry out an analysis of the main determinants that could lead to conclusions that help to establish lines of action. The aim of this doctoral thesis project is to analyze the determinants of CO2 emissions in two economies: Spanish and Chilean. This choice is due to the existing research project between our research group and Universidad Autónoma de Chile. The main contributions of this thesis can be briefly summarized as follows: On the one hand, we present an analysis of main drivers of CO2 emissions in Spain for the 1995–2009 period. This research carries out a multisector analysis based on the Log-Mean Divisia Index Method (LMDI I). The decomposition factors used are the Carbon Intensity factor (CI), the Energy Intensity factor (EI), the structural composition of Spain's economy (Economy Structure, ES), the Economic Activity factor (EA) and Population (P), respectively. Major findings show that renewable energy sources (RES) acted as a compensating factor of the drivers of CO2 emissions. The positive trend for the share of RES in Spain's energy matrix, together with the negative tendency in the use of fossil fuels, leads us to be optimistic. On the second hand, we present an evaluation of the performance of Chile's CO2 emissions between 1991 and 2013 using an analysis based on log-mean divisia index method (LMDI I) to examine emissions and their components. Six decomposition factors were considered: Carbon Intensity effect (CI), RES penetration effect (RES), Energy Intensity effect (EI), Economy Structure effect (ES), Income effect (Yp) and Population effect (P). To know how these factors could influence each other in the future, the Innovative Accounting Approach (IAA) was used, including forecast error variance decomposition and Impulse Response Functions (IRFs). These two methodologies allow us to identify the drivers of CO2 emission changes in the past (1991–2013), test policy measures and learn how these drivers could influence each other in the future, to evaluate whether the current measures meet the Paris Agreement’s commitments. The LMDI analysis results show that the Energy Intensity Factor is the main compensating factor of Chile's CO2 emissions and the only effect with a clear trend to aid the decoupling between economic growth and GHG emissions. IAA and IFRs results react similarly and confirm that carbon intensity reacts to shocks more significantly in the short term. The reaction to RES has the same and opposite behavior to shocks in ES and Yp, to disappear in the long term. These finding represent a major contribution, not only for researchers but also for companies and policy makers. To the best of our knowledge there are no previous analyzes of the main drivers of CO2 in these economies. Results could lead to establish lines of action in order to design energy projects that help to fight against climate change

Transportation Futures: Policy Scenarios for Achieving Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets, MNTRC Report 12-11

It is well established that GHG emissions must be reduced by 50% to 80% by 2050 in order to limit global temperature increase to 2°C. Achieving reductions of this magnitude in the transportation sector is a challenge and requires a multitude of policies and technology options. The research presented here analyzes three scenarios: changes in the perceived price of travel, land-use intensification, and increases in transit. Elasticity estimates are derived using an activity-based travel model for the state of California and broadly representative of the U.S. The VISION model is used to forecast changes in technology and fuel options that are currently forecast to occur in the U.S., providing a life cycle GHG forecast for the road transportation sector. Results suggest that aggressive policy action is needed, especially pricing policies, but also more on the technology side. Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are in particular need of additional fuel or technology-based GHG reductions

Decoupling economic growth and environmental degradation : reviewing progress to date in the small island state of Malta

This paper considers the challenge of decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation; in contrast to several large-scale cross-country analyses that focus on limited indicators of environmental degradation, we analyze in some depth the experience of a single small-scale island state setting (Malta). We use available statistical data to derive decoupling factors, in order to consider the extent to which decoupling has been achieved in four sectors: (i) energy intensity, climate change, and air quality; (ii) water; (iii) waste; and (iv) land. Results indicate relative decoupling between economic growth and several indicators considered, and to a lesser extent, relative decoupling between population growth and the same indicators of environmental pressure. Absolute decoupling has been achieved in at least one instance but there has been no decoupling of land development from either economic or population growth. Land use and population thus appear to be notable sources of pressure. The results suggest that decoupling analyses that present environmental degradation in terms of single variables (e.g., carbon emissions) may misrepresent somewhat the state of the environment at local level. Furthermore, the study highlights the need for methodologies that factor in the "embedding" of small-scale settings within much larger trade networks, for a more accurate estimation of environmental impact, and points to some limitations of solely quantitative analyses of environment-ecology relationships.peer-reviewe

Defining absolute environmental limits for the built environment

The question addressed is whether it is possible to define working limits on environmental impacts from the built environment in terms of global carrying capacity. The main focus is on energy-related impacts, since these are global and relatively well-understood. Four possible approaches to defining limits are explored: static equilibrium, asymptotic, integral of excess and planned future. The conclusions that emerge from this exploration are that global environmental constraints are very tight, but also that they are dynamically and strongly influenced by the trajectory of social and technological development over the coming century. Their use as the basis for practical, quantitative metrics of sustainability, therefore, involves a large measure of subjectivity. A fifth approach - the developmental approach - is identified, which instead of focusing on long-term external constraints to human activity, focuses instead on the internal, short- to medium-term dynamics of the built environment itself. It appears likely that the developmental approach, guided by qualitative conclusions from the analysis of global carrying capacity, is likely to be most fruitful

Reconsidering the calculation and role of environmental footprints

Following the recent Copenhagen Climate Change conference, there has been discussion of the methods and underlying principles that inform climate change targets. Climate change targets following the Kyoto Protocol are broadly based on a production accounting principle (PAP). This approach focuses on emissions produced within given geographical boundaries. An alternative approach is a consumption accounting principle (CAP), where the focus is on emissions produced globally to meet consumption demand within the national (or regional) economy1. Increasingly popular environmental footprint measures, including ecological and carbon footprints, attempt to measure environmental impacts based on CAP methods. The perception that human consumption decisions lie at the heart of the climate change problem is the impetus driving pressure on policymakers for a more widespread use of CAP measures. At a global level of course, emissions accounted for under the production and consumption accounting principles would be equal. It is international trade that leads to differences in emissions under the two principles. This paper, the second in this special issue of the Fraser Commentary, examines how input-output accounting techniques may be applied to examine pollution generation under both of these accounting principles, focussing on waste and carbon generation in the Welsh economy as a case study. However, we take a different focus, arguing that the ‘domestic technology assumption’, taken as something of a mid-point in moving between production and consumption accounting in the first paper, may actually constitute a more useful focus for regional policymakers than full footprint analyses

The electricity generation mix in Scotland : the long and windy road?

This article reports on research funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) at the University of Strathclyde

An application of hybrid life cycle assessment as a decision support framework for green supply chains

In an effort to achieve sustainable operations, green supply chain management has become an important area for firms to concentrate on due to its inherent involvement with all the processes that provide foundations to successful business. Modelling methodologies of product supply chain environmental assessment are usually guided by the principles of life cycle assessment (LCA). However, a review of the extant literature suggests that LCA techniques suffer from a wide range of limitations that prevent a wider application in real-world contexts; hence, they need to be incorporated within decision support frameworks to aid environmental sustainability strategies. Thus, this paper contributes in understanding and overcoming the dichotomy between LCA model development and the emerging practical implementation to inform carbon emissions mitigation strategies within supply chains. Therefore, the paper provides both theoretical insights and a practical application to inform the process of adopting a decision support framework based on a LCA methodology in a real-world scenario. The supply chain of a product from the steel industry is considered to evaluate its environmental impact and carbon ‘hotspots’. The study helps understanding how operational strategies geared towards environmental sustainability can be informed using knowledge and information generated from supply chain environmental assessments, and for highlighting inherent challenges in this process

The environmental effects of peak hour air traffic congestion: the case of London Heathrow Airport

This paper was presented for publication in the journal Research in Transportation Economics and the definitive published version is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2016.04.012© 2016 Elsevier Ltd.The commercial air transport sector currently faces the serious and seemingly incompatible challenge of meeting growing consumer demand for flight whilst reducing its environmental impact and meeting increasingly stringent international emissions targets. Growing demand for air travel combined with improvements in environmental performance in other industrial sectors means that commercial aviation has become a key focus for tackling climate change. The aim of this paper is to quantify the impacts of capacity-induced airport congestion using the case of London Heathrow Airport. The paper quantifies the environmental effect of airborne delays to inbound aircraft at the heavily constrained London Heathrow Airport on emissions and local air quality. The findings reveal that the additional CO2 and NOx emissions resulting from airborne delays are significant and will increase if capacity constraints on the ground are not addressed. The results are analysed in the context of Heathrow's climate change targets and current debates surrounding expansion and the challenge of reconciling environmental sustainability with aviation growth

Carbon Emissions Pinch Analysis (CEPA) for emissions reduction in the New Zealand electricity sector

Carbon Emissions Pinch Analysis (CEPA) is a recent extension of traditional thermal and mass pinch analysis to the area of emissions targeting and planning on a macro-scale (i.e. economy wide). This paper presents an extension to the current methodology that accounts for increased demand and a carbon pinch analysis of the New Zealand electricity industry while illustrating some of the issues with realising meaningful emissions reductions. The current large proportion of renewable generation (67% in 2007) complicates extensive reduction of carbon emissions from electricity generation. The largest growth in renewable generation is expected to come from geothermal generation followed by wind and hydro. A four fold increase in geothermal generation capacity is needed in addition to large amounts of new wind generation to reduce emissions to around 1990 levels and also meet projected demand. The expected expansion of geothermal generation in New Zealand raises issues of GHG emissions from the geothermal fields. The emissions factors between fields can vary by almost two orders of magnitude making predictions of total emissions highly site specific