8,034 research outputs found

    An expert-based approach to production performance analysis of oil and gas facilities considering time-independent Arctic operating conditions

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    -The availability and throughput of offshore oil and gas plants operating in the Arctic are adversely influenced by the harsh environmental conditions. One of the major challenges in quantifying such effects is lack of adequate life data. The data collected in normal-climate regions cannot effectively reflect the negative effects of harsh Arctic operating conditions on the reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM) performance of the facilities. Expert opinions, however, can modify such data. In an analogy with proportional hazard models, this paper develops an expert-based availability model to analyse the performance of the plants operating in the Arctic, while accounting for the uncertainties associated with expert judgements. The presented model takes into account waiting downtimes and those related to extended active repair times, as well as the impacts of operating conditions on components’ reliability. The model is illustrated by analysing the availability and throughput of the power generation unit of an offshore platform operating in the Western Barents Sea

    Availability assessment of oil and gas processing plants operating under dynamic Arctic weather conditions

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    Link to publishers version: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.03.004We consider the assessment of the availability of oil and gas processing facilities operating under Arctic conditions. The novelty of the work lies in modelling the time-dependent effects of environmental conditions on the components failure and repair rates. This is done by introducing weather-dependent multiplicative factors, which can be estimated by expert judgements given the scarce data available from Arctic offshore operations. System availability is assessed considering the equivalent age of the components to account for the impacts of harsh operating conditions on component life history and maintenance duration. The application of the model by direct Monte Carlo simulation is illustrated on an oil processing train operating in Arctic offshore. A scheduled preventive maintenance task is considered to cope with the potential reductions in system availability under harsh operating condition

    Resilience, Reliability, and Recoverability (3Rs)

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    Recent natural and human-made disasters, mortgage derivatives crises, and the need for stable systems in different areas have renewed interest in the concept of resilience, especially as it relates to complex industrial systems with mechanical failures. This concept in the engineering systems (infrastructure) domain could be interpreted as the probability that system conditions exceed an irrevocable tipping point. But the probability in this subject covers the different areas that different approaches and indicators can evaluate. In this context, reliability engineering is used the reliability (uptime) and recoverability (downtime) indicators (or performance indicators) as the most useful probabilistic tools for performance measurement. Therefore, our research penalty area is the resilience concept in combination with reliability and recoverability. It must be said that the resilience evaluators must be considering a diversity of knowledge sources. In this thesis, the literature review points to several important implications for understanding and applying resilience in the engineering area and The Arctic condition. Indeed, we try to understand the application and interaction of different performance-based resilience concepts. In this way, a collection of the most popular performance-based resilience analysis methods with an engineering perspective is added as a state-of-the-art review. The performance indicators studies reveal that operational conditions significantly affect the components, industry activities, and infrastructures performance in various ways. These influential factors (or heterogeneity) can broadly be studied into two groups: observable and unobservable risk factors in probability analysis of system performance. The covariate-based models (regression), such as proportional hazard models (PHM), and their extent are the most popular methods for quantifying observable and unobservable risk factors. The report is organized as follows: After a brief introduction of resilience, chapters 2,3 priorly provide a comprehensive statistical overview of the reliability and recoverability domain research by using large scientific databases such as Scopus and Web of Science. As the first subsection, a detailed review of publications in the reliability and recoverability assessment of the engineering systems in recent years (since 2015) is provided. The second subsection of these chapters focuses on research done in the Arctic region. The last subsection presents covariate-based reliability and recoverability models. Finally, in chapter 4, the first part presents the concept and definitions of resilience. The literature reviews four main perspectives: resilience in engineering systems, resilience in the Arctic area, the integration of “Resilience, Reliability, and Recoverability (3Rs)”, and performance-based resilience models

    Resource Provision of the Sustainable Development under Global Shocks

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    This reprint focuses on interdisciplinary research that reveals the problems of resource provision of the economy, both from the perspective of local projects and from the point of view of the creation of global infrastructure that contributes to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals. Considerable attention is paid to the development of the Arctic territories as one of the most promising sources of mineral and fuel resources as of 2021. This reprint also includes selected papers from European Raw Materials Conferences 2020–2021, held despite the global COVID-19 pandemic, and will be published with the financial support of the International competence Centre for mining-engineering education under the auspices of UNESCO: - Russian–UK Raw Materials Dialogue (21–23 October 2020); - Russian–German Raw Materials Conference (30 November–1 December 2020)

    Sustainable seabed mining: guidelines and a new concept for Atlantis II Deep

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    The feasibility of exploiting seabed resources is subject to the engineering solutions, and economic prospects. Due to rising metal prices, predicted mineral scarcities and unequal allocations of resources in the world, vast research programmes on the exploration and exploitation of seabed minerals are presented in 1970s. Very few studies have been published after the 1980s, when predictions were not fulfilled. The attention grew back in the last decade with marine mineral mining being in research and commercial focus again and the first seabed mining license for massive sulphides being granted in Papua New Guinea’s Exclusive Economic Zone.Research on seabed exploitation and seabed mining is a complex transdisciplinary field that demands for further attention and development. Since the field links engineering, economics, environmental, legal and supply chain research, it demands for research from a systems point of view. This implies the application of a holistic sustainability framework of to analyse the feasibility of engineering systems. The research at hand aims to close this gap by developing such a framework and providing a review of seabed resources. Based on this review it identifies a significant potential for massive sulphides in inactive hydrothermal vents and sediments to solve global resource scarcities. The research aims to provide background on seabed exploitation and to apply a holistic systems engineering approach to develop general guidelines for sustainable seabed mining of polymetallic sulphides and a new concept and solutions for the Atlantis II Deep deposit in the Red Sea.The research methodology will start with acquiring a broader academic and industrial view on sustainable seabed mining through an online survey and expert interviews on seabed mining. In addition, the Nautilus Minerals case is reviewed for lessons learned and identification of challenges. Thereafter, a new concept for Atlantis II Deep is developed that based on a site specific assessment.The research undertaken in this study provides a new perspective regarding sustainable seabed mining. The main contributions of this research are the development of extensive guidelines for key issues in sustainable seabed mining as well as a new concept for seabed mining involving engineering systems, environmental risk mitigation, economic feasibility, logistics and legal aspects

    Risk management of offshore logistics support operations in remote harsh environments

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    Activities in northern offshore regions are increasing due to proven reserves of natural resources. These regions are considered to have a harsh marine environment due to extreme weather conditions, namely low temperatures, frequent storms and the presence of sea ice. In general these activities are moving further offshore. Thus many new developments are faced with operations in extreme environments at long distances from shore support. Design, operational and regulatory planning for such offshore installations must consider the environmental challenges along with additional difficulties that arise due to remoteness. The most significant aspects of an offshore development that are affected by the factors of environment and remoteness, are the logistical support functions required for daily operations and the rapid response required for emergencies. In the early stages of design it would be beneficial to have a means of assessing the high risk elements of such operations and the risk reduction cost effectiveness of proposed solutions. This study presents an end-to-end risk reduction analysis of the logistical support functions for a typical remote harsh-environment offshore operation including; risk assessment to provide identification of most significant risks, risk reduction modeling and development of a solution to provide the identified most effective reduction strategy, and finally a cost benefit analysis that includes the costed initial risk factors, the solution cost and the costed net reduction in risk arising from implementation. This research serves three functions. It develops a procedure for evaluating offshore operations that have inherently high logistical risks due mainly to distance but also applicable to other factors. It provides a risk analysis based solution to the specific problem of remote operations in harsh environments. Finally it develops a method of determining the utility of a possible solution or of alternative solutions through rational risk based cost analysis. The study is divided into four phases, Risk Analysis, Risk Reduction, Specific Solution and Cost-Benefit Analysis. In phase one – risk analysis, an advanced probabilistic model is developed using fault trees to identify the main contributing factors of the logistical challenges. A fuzzy-based and evidence-based approach is implemented to address inherent data limitations. It is found that existing modes of logistics support such as marine vessel or helicopter are not sufficiently reliable and quick for remote offshore operations. Moving towards in phase two – risk reduction, a conditional dependence-based Bayesian model is developed that has integrated multiple alternative risk reduction measures. The analysis depicts that a nearby offshore refuge and an additional layer of safety inventory are found to the most effective measures. In phase three – specific solution, the concept of a moored vessel, which is termed as offshore resource centre (ORC) is proposed that can meet the functions of both these measures. The overall dimensions of the ORC are derived based on the functional requirements and the model is validated for stability and mooring requirements. In phase four – cost-benefit analysis, the life cycle costs of an ORC is estimated from historical vessel data using regression analysis. A loss model is developed for a hypothetical blowout incident, which is a function response time and the distance from shore support. These models are integrated into a single framework that can project the costed risk with or without the ORC. The analysis reveals that an ORC becomes more and more viable when the offshore distance becomes longer and if there is a higher probability of any platform incident, recognizing that it is desirable to keep the probability as low as possible. Taken together these phases form a full analysis from problem identification through solution cost-benefit

    Joint stewardship of the Barents Sea: Russian and Norwegian policy expectations for preventing offshore oil spills

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    Thesis (M.A.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2016As Arctic environmental conditions fluctuate, ongoing economic-related agreements established for the Barents Region continue to support and attract Norwegian and Russian oil-producing expeditions within the shared maritime zone. Increased industrial activity throughout the Circumpolar North heightens the need to understand the factors that influence policies responsible for protecting the environment – in particular, preventive measures. Agency theory provides the framework for an analysis of various dynamics that influence the Norwegian and Russian governments (principals) as they develop and enforce rules that regulate petroleum industries (agents). The research question asks about differences between the prevention policies of the two nations even though both acknowledge a very similar need to protect the Barents. Since the regulatory and governance structures cannot fully explain the differences between the two countries’ prevention policies, the hypothesis presents an argument that the strategic goals of Norway and Russia in the global political economy provide sufficient conditions for policy divergence. This research presents case studies of economic and environmental factors that influence how Russia and Norway develop energy-related prevention policies in the Barents Sea. The findings suggest that differing strategic goals between the two countries influence their oil spill prevention policies. Russia’s oil spill prevention policy enables it to maintain high production levels that it can leverage to further its geopolitical aims. Norway’s more cautious prevention policies promote domestic economic stability. In a progressively interdependent world, this study contributes insight into contemporary international relations regarding aspects of partnerships, energy economics, and geostrategic policy

    Arctic Northern Sea Route prospects, obstacles & Chinese stance

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    An integrated model for asset reliability, risk and production efficiency management in subsea oil and gas operations

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    PhD ThesisThe global demand for energy has been predicted to rise by 56% between 2010 and 2040 due to industrialization and population growth. This continuous rise in energy demand has consequently prompted oil and gas firms to shift activities from onshore oil fields to tougher terrains such as shallow, deep, ultra-deep and arctic fields. Operations in these domains often require deployment of unconventional subsea assets and technology. Subsea assets when installed offshore are super-bombarded by marine elements and human factors which increase the risk of failure. Whilst many risk standards, asset integrity and reliability analysis models have been suggested by many previous researchers, there is a gap on the capability of predictive reliability models to simultaneously address the impact of corrosion inducing elements such as temperature, pressure, pH corrosion on material wear-out and failure. There is also a gap in the methodology for evaluation of capital expenditure, human factor risk elements and use of historical data to evaluate risk. This thesis aims to contribute original knowledge to help improve production assurance by developing an integrated model which addresses pump-pipe capital expenditure, asset risk and reliability in subsea systems. The key contributions of this research is the development of a practical model which links four sub-models on reliability analysis, asset capital cost, event risk severity analysis and subsea risk management implementation. Firstly, an accelerated reliability analysis model was developed by incorporating a corrosion covariate stress on Weibull model of OREDA data. This was applied on a subsea compression system to predict failure times. A second methodology was developed by enhancing Hubbert oil production forecast model, and using nodal analysis for asset capital cost analysis of a pump-pipe system and optimal selection of best option based on physical parameters such as pipeline diameter, power needs, pressure drop and velocity of fluid. Thirdly, a risk evaluation method based on the mathematical determinant of historical event magnitude, frequency and influencing factors was developed for estimating the severity of risk in a system. Finally, a survey is conducted on subsea engineers and the results along with the previous models were developed into an integrated assurance model for ensuring asset reliability and risk management in subsea operations. A guide is provided for subsea asset management with due consideration to both technical and operational perspectives. The operational requirements of a subsea system can be measured, analysed and improved using the mix of mathematical, computational, stochastic and logical frameworks recommended in this work
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