From Organisational Behaviour to Industrial Network Evolutions: Stimulating Sustainable Development of Bioenergy Networks in Emerging Economies

The aim of this thesis is to understand what drives the evolution of industrial networks and how such understanding can be used to stimulate sustainable development. A complex adaptive systems perspective has been adopted to analyse the complex interaction between organisational behaviour and industrial network evolution. This analysis has formed the basis for the development of a modelling approach that allows for quantitative exploration of how different organisational perceptions about current and future uncertainty affect their behaviour and therefore the network evolution. This analysis results in a set of potential evolutionary pathways for an industrial network and their associated performance in terms of sustainable development. Subsequently, this modelling approach has been used to explore the consequences of interventions in the network evolution and to identify robust interventions for stimulating sustainable development of industrial networks. The analysis, modelling approach and development of interventions has been developed in the context of a bioenergy network in the region of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa. Industrial networks are an important aspect of today’s life and provide many goods and services to households and individuals all over the world. They consist of a large number of autonomous organisations, where some organisations contribute by transforming or transacting natural resources, such as oil, agricultural products or water, while other organisations contribute to networks by providing information or setting regulation or subsidies (local or national governments) or by influencing decision making processes of other organisations in networks (advocacy groups). Throughout the process from natural resource to product or service, industrial networks have important economic, environmental and social impacts on the socio-economic and biophysical systems in which they operate. The sum of complex interactions between organisations affects the rate in which natural resources are used, environmental impacts associated with transformation and transaction of resources and social impacts on local communities, regions or countries as a whole. The aim of this thesis is to understand how industrial networks evolve and how they can be stimulated towards sustainable development. The first question that has been addressed in this thesis is how to understand the complex interaction between organisational behaviour and industrial network evolution. Organisational behaviour is affected by many functional and implicit characteristics within the environment in which the organisation operates, while simultaneously the environment is a function of non-linear relationships between individual organisational actions and their consequences for both the function and structure of the network. This thesis has identified four different characteristics of industrial networks that affect organisational behaviour: 1) Functional characteristics 2) Implicit behavioural characteristics 3) Implicit relational characteristics 4) Implicit network characteristics. Functional characteristics are those characteristics that are formally recognised by all organisations within an industrial network and which affect their position within the network. Examples of functional characteristics are the price and quantity of resources available, the location and distance of organisations within a network, infrastructure availability or regulation. Implicit characteristics, on the other hand, are those characteristics that impact the decision making process of organisations, but which are not formally part of the network. From an organisational perspective, implicit characteristics are the rules, heuristics, norms and values that an organisation uses to determine its objectives, position and potential actions. Implicit relational characteristics, most importantly trust and loyalty, affect an organisations choice between potential partners and implicit network characteristics are those social norms and values that emerge through social embeddedness. Collectively, these functional and implicit characteristics and their interactions determine the outcome of organisational decisions and therefore the direction of the industrial network evolution. The complex interaction between these large numbers of characteristics requires quantitative models to explore how different network characteristics and different interactions result in different network evolutions. This thesis has developed an agent-based simulation model to explore industrial network evolutions. To represent the multi-scale complexity of industrial networks, the model consists of four scales. Each scale represents different processes that connect the functional and implicit characteristics of an industrial network to each other. The two basic scales represent the strategic actions of the organisations on the one hand and the industrial network function and structure on the other. The third scale represents the processes that take place within the mental models of organisations describing how they make sense of their environment and inform their strategic decision making process. The fourth scale represents the social embeddedness of organisations and how social processes create and destroy social institutions. The model has been developed such that it allows for exploring how changes in different network characteristics or processes affect the evolution of the network as a whole. The second question that has been addressed in this thesis is how to evaluate sustainable development of different evolutionary pathways of industrial networks. First of all, a systems approach has been adopted to explore the consequences of an industrial network to the larger socio-economic and biophysical system in which the network operates. Subsequently, a set of structural indicators has been proposed to evaluate the dynamic performance of industrial networks. These four structural indicators reflect the efficiency, effectiveness, resilience and adaptiveness of industrial networks. Efficiency and effectiveness relate to the operational features by which industrial networks provides a particular contribution to society. Resilience and adaptiveness relate to the system’s capacity to maintain or adapt its contribution to society while under stress of temporary shocks or permanent shifts, respectively. Finally, different multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tools have been applied to provide a holistic evaluation of sustainable development of industrial networks. The third important question that is addressed in this thesis is how to systematically explore the potential evolutionary pathways of an industrial network, which has led to the development of agent-based scenario analysis. Agent-based scenario analysis systematically explores how industrial network evolutions might evolve depending on the perceptions of organisations towards the inherent uncertainty associated with strategic decision making in networks. The agent-based scenario analysis consists of two steps. Firstly, analysts develop a set of coherent context scenarios, which represents their view on the context in which an industrial network will operate within the future. For a bioenergy network, for example, this step results in a set of scenarios that each represent a coherent future of the socio-economic system in which the network might evolve. The second step is the development of a set of ‘agent scenarios’. Each agent-based scenario is based on a different ‘mental model’ employed by organisations within the network about how to deal with the inherent ambiguity of the future. The organisational perspective towards uncertainty is of major importance for the evolution of industrial networks, because it determines the innovative behaviour of organisations, the structure of the network and the direction in which the network evolves. One the one hand, organisations can ignore future ambiguity and base their actions on the environment that they can observe in their present state. On the other extreme, organisations can adopt a view that the future is inherently uncertain and in which they view social norms and values more important than functional characteristics to make sense of their environment. The mental models are differentiated according to two dimensions: 1) different mental representation of the world and 2) different cognitive processes that can be employed to inform strategic actions. Along these dimensions, different processes can be employed to make sense of the environment and to inform decision making. The thesis has shown that by systematically exploring the different perceptions possible, an adequate understanding of the different evolutionary pathways can be gained to inform the evaluation and development of interventions to stimulate sustainable development. The final part of this thesis has applied the analysis and methodology developed throughout this thesis to a bioenergy network in the province of Kwazulu-Natal in South Africa. The bioenergy network consists of a set of existing sugar mills with large quantities of bagasse, a biomass waste product, available. Bagasse is currently burned inefficiently to produce steam for the sugar mills, but can potentially be used for the production of green electricity, biodiesel, bioethanol or gelfuel. All of these products have important consequences for the region in terms of associated reductions in CO2 emissions, electrification of and/or energy provision for rural households and local economic development of the region. This thesis has modelled strategic decisions of the sugar mills, the existing electricity generator, potential independent energy producers, local and national governments and how their actions and interactions can lead to different evolutionary pathways of the bioenergy network. The agent-based scenario analysis has been used to explore how different perceptions of organisations can lead to different network evolutions. Finally, the model has been used to explore the consequences of two categories of interventions on stimulating sustainable development. The conclusions are that both categories of interventions, financial interventions by national government and the introduction of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tools to aid strategic decision making, can have both positive and negative effects on the network evolutions, depending on what ‘mental models’ are employed by organisations. Furthermore, there is no single intervention that outperforms the others in terms of stimulating both functional and structural features of sustainable development. The final conclusion is that instead of focusing on individual or collective targets, emphasis should be placed on the development of interventions that focus on evolutionary aspects of industrial networks rather than functional performance criteria. This thesis has also highlighted interesting research questions for future investigation. The methodology developed in this thesis is applied to a single case study, but there are still many questions concerning how different industrial networks might benefit from different organisational perceptions towards uncertainty. Furthermore, the role between the mental models and sustainable development requires further investigation, especially in the light of globalisation and the interconnectiveness of industrial networks in different countries and continents. Finally, this methodology has provided a platform for investigating how new technologies might be developed that anticipate needs of future generations. This thesis has provided a first and important step in developing a methodology that addresses the complex issues associated with sustainable development, benefiting both academics and practitioners that aim to stimulate sustainable development

Complexity challenges in ATM

After more than 4 years of activity, the ComplexWorld Network, together with the projects and PhDs covered under the SESAR long-term research umbrella, have developed sound research material contributing to progress beyond the state of the art in fields such as resilience, uncertainty, multi-agent systems, metrics and data science. The achievements made by the ComplexWorld stakeholders have also led to the identification of new challenges that need to be addressed in the future. In order to pave the way for complexity science research in Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the coming years, ComplexWorld requested external assessments on how the challenges have been covered and where there are existing gaps. For that purpose, ComplexWorld, with the support of EUROCONTROL, established an expert panel to review selected documentation developed by the network and provide their assessment on their topic of expertise

What Triggers and Barriers to Practicing Consumption Ideals Must Be Addressed By Sustainable Consumption Solutions?

Despite a wealth of knowledge on the psycho-social and ideological functions of personal consumption, we have yet to successfully address unsustainable consumption practices in developed urban spaces. This study develops a contemporary understanding of how people from Sydney engage in their personal consumption practices. Using both focus groups and personal consumption journals, I identified the common consumption considerations of all participants regardless of whether their goal was to minimise or maximise their resource consumption. This data was collected into eight categories of psycho-social and ideological issues that are argued to consistently contribute to the renegotiation of consumption ideals into practices. These results show that personal consumption is a fluid act that occurs anew with each decision. As such, these eight categories offer points of entry to affect sustainable consumption practices

What Triggers and Barriers to Practicing Consumption Ideals Must Be Addressed By Sustainable Consumption Solutions?

Despite a wealth of knowledge on the psycho-social and ideological functions of personal consumption, we have yet to successfully address unsustainable consumption practices in developed urban spaces. This study develops a contemporary understanding of how people from Sydney engage in their personal consumption practices. Using both focus groups and personal consumption journals, I identified the common consumption considerations of all participants regardless of whether their goal was to minimise or maximise their resource consumption. This data was collected into eight categories of psycho-social and ideological issues that are argued to consistently contribute to the renegotiation of consumption ideals into practices. These results show that personal consumption is a fluid act that occurs anew with each decision. As such, these eight categories offer points of entry to affect sustainable consumption practices

A contribution to support decision making in energy/water sypply chain optimisation

The seeking of process sustainability forces enterprises to change their operations. Additionally, the industrial globalization implies a very dynamic market that, among other issues, promotes the enterprises competition. Therefore, the efficient control and use of their Key Performance Indicators, including profitability, cost reduction, demand satisfaction and environmental impact associated to the development of new products, is a significant challenge. All the above indicators can be efficiently controlled through the Supply Chain Management. Thus, companies work towards the optimization of their individual operations under competitive environments taking advantage of the flexibility provided by the virtually inexistent world market restrictions. This is achieved by the coordination of the resource flows, across all the entities and echelons belonging to the system network. Nevertheless, such coordination is significantly complicated if considering the presence of uncertainty and even more if seeking for a win-win outcome. The purpose of this thesis is extending the current decision making strategies to expedite these tasks in industrial processes. Such a contribution is based on the development of efficient mathematical models that allows coordinating large amount of information synchronizing the production and distribution tasks in terms of economic, environmental and social criteria. This thesis starts presents an overview of the requirements of sustainable production processes, describing and analyzing the current methods and tools used and identifying the most relevant open issues. All the above is always within the framework of Process System Engineering literature. The second part of this thesis is focused in stressing the current Multi-Objective solution strategies. During this part, first explores how the profitability of the Supply Chain can be enhanced by considering simultaneously multiple objectives under demand uncertainties. Particularly, solution frameworks have been proposed in which different multi-criteria decision making strategies have been combined with stochastic approaches. Furthermore, additional performance indicators (including financial and operational ones) have been included in the same solution framework to evaluate its capabilities. This framework was also applied to decentralized supply chains problems in order to explore its capabilities to produce solution that improves the performances of each one of the SC entities simultaneously. Consequently, a new generalized mathematical formulation which integrates many performance indicators in the production process within a supply chain is efficiently solved. Afterwards, the third part of the thesis extends the proposed solution framework to address the uncertainty management. Particularly, the consideration of different types and sources of uncertainty (e.g. external and internal ones) where considered, through the implementation of preventive approaches. This part also explores the use of solution strategies that efficiently selects the number of scenarios that represent the uncertainty conditions. Finally, the importance and effect of each uncertainty source over the process performance is detailed analyzed through the use of surrogate models that promote the sensitivity analysis of those uncertainties. The third part of this thesis is focused on the integration of the above multi-objective and uncertainty approaches for the optimization of a sustainable Supply Chain. Besides the integration of different solution approaches, this part also considers the integration of hierarchical decision levels, by the exploitation of mathematical models that assess the consequences of considering simultaneously design and planning decisions under centralized and decentralized Supply Chains. Finally, the last part of this thesis provides the final conclusions and further work to be developed.La globalización industrial genera un ambiente dinámico en los mercados que, entre otras cosas, promueve la competencia entre corporaciones. Por lo tanto, el uso eficiente de las los indicadores de rendimiento, incluyendo rentabilidad, satisfacción de la demanda y en general el impacto ambiental, representa un area de oportunidad importante. El control de estos indicadores tiene un efecto positivo si se combinan con la gestión de cadena de suministro. Por lo tanto, las compañías buscan definir sus operaciones para permanecer activas dentro de un ambiente competitivo, tomando en cuenta las restricciones en el mercado mundial. Lo anterior puede ser logrado mediante la coordinación de los flujos de recursos a través de todas las entidades y escalones pertenecientes a la red del sistema. Sin embargo, dicha coordinación se complica significativamente si se quiere considerar la presencia de incertidumbre, y aún más, si se busca exclusivamente un ganar-ganar. El propósito de esta tesis es extender el alcance de las estrategias de toma de decisiones con el fin de facilitar estas tareas dentro de procesos industriales. Estas contribuciones se basan en el desarrollo de modelos matemáticos eficientes que permitan coordinar grandes cantidades de información sincronizando las tareas de producción y distribución en términos económicos, ambientales y sociales. Esta tesis inicia presentando una visión global de los requerimientos de un proceso de producción sostenible, describiendo y analizando los métodos y herramientas actuales así como identificando las áreas de oportunidad más relevantes dentro del marco de ingeniería de procesos La segunda parte se enfoca en enfatizar las capacidades de las estrategias de solución multi-objetivo, durante la cual, se explora el mejoramiento de la rentabilidad de la cadena de suministro considerando múltiples objetivos bajo incertidumbres en la demanda. Particularmente, diferentes marcos de solución han sido propuestos en los que varias estrategias de toma de decisión multi-criterio han sido combinadas con aproximaciones estocásticas. Por otra parte, indicadores de rendimiento (incluyendo financiero y operacional) han sido incluidos en el mismo marco de solución para evaluar sus capacidades. Este marco fue aplicado también a problemas de cadenas de suministro descentralizados con el fin de explorar sus capacidades de producir soluciones que mejoran simultáneamente el rendimiento para cada uno de las entidades dentro de la cadena de suministro. Consecuentemente, una nueva formulación que integra varios indicadores de rendimiento en los procesos de producción fue propuesta y validada. La tercera parte de la tesis extiende el marco de solución propuesto para abordar el manejo de incertidumbres. Particularmente, la consideración de diferentes tipos y fuentes de incertidumbre (p.ej. externos e internos) fueron considerados, mediante la implementación de aproximaciones preventivas. Esta parte también explora el uso de estrategias de solución que elige eficientemente el número de escenarios necesario que representan las condiciones inciertas. Finalmente, la importancia y efecto de cada una de las fuentes de incertidumbre sobre el rendimiento del proceso es analizado en detalle mediante el uso de meta modelos que promueven el análisis de sensibilidad de dichas incertidumbres. La tercera parte de esta tesis se enfoca en la integración de las metodologías de multi-objetivo e incertidumbre anteriormente expuestas para la optimización de cadenas de suministro sostenibles. Además de la integración de diferentes métodos. Esta parte también considera la integración de diferentes niveles jerárquicos de decisión, mediante el aprovechamiento de modelos matemáticos que evalúan lasconsecuencias de considerar simultáneamente las decisiones de diseño y planeación de una cadena de suministro centralizada y descentralizada. La parte final de la tesis detalla las conclusiones y el trabajo a futuro necesario sobre esta línea de investigaciónPostprint (published version

An approach to system of systems resiliency using architecture and agent-based behavioral modeling

”In today’s world it is no longer a question of whether a system will be compromised but when the system will be compromised. Consider the recent compromise of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Hillary Clinton emails as well as the multiple Yahoo breaches and the break into the Target customer database. The list of exploited vulnerabilities and successful cyber-attacks goes on and on. Because of the amount and frequency of the cyber-attacks, resiliency has taken on a whole new meaning. There is a new perspective within defense to consider resiliency in terms of Mission Success. This research develops a new approach of assessing resiliency from the Mission Engineering perspective. Mission Engineering is a new field of systems engineering where the Mission is the system of interest. The Mission requires a SoS with the goal of Mission Success. To the literature, this research contributes an approach to evaluate SoS resiliency based on Mission Success. An agent-based model (ABM) called the SoS architecture resiliency model (SARM) was developed and is a second contribution to the literature. The SARM includes a fuzzy architecture assessor (FAA) as well as SoS behavior represented using fuzzy decision analysis (FDA). The SARM uses DoD architecture framework (DoDAF) views and includes threats. Results show that resiliency can be measured using SARM given the systems, capabilities, and interfaces. Tests with a generic SoS and with a specific SoS provide a proof of concept for the method. To summarize, this research contributes to the literature a method and an executable model for evaluating architecture resiliency as well as the FAA and the FDA”--Abstract, page iii

Multiple Criteria Decision Support; Proceedings of an International Workshop, Helsinki, Finland, August 7-11, 1989

Multiple Criteria Decision Making has been an important and active research area for some 20 years. In the 1970's, research focused on the theory of multiple objective mathematical programming and on procedures for solving multiple objective mathematical programming problems. During the 1980's, a shift in emphasis towards multiple criteria decision support was observed. Accordingly, much research has focused on the user interface, the behavioral foundations of decision making, and on supporting the entire decision-making process from problem structuring to solution implementation. Because of the shift in research emphasis the authors decided to make "Multiple Criteria Decision Support" the theme for the International Workshop, which was held at Suomen Saeaestoepankkiopisto in Espoo, Finland. The Workshop was organized by the Helsinki School of Economics, and sponsored by the Helsinki School of Economics and IIASA, Austria. This volume provides an up-to-date coverage of the theory and practice of multiple criteria decision support. The authors trust that it will serve the research community as well as the previously published Conference Proceedings based on IIASA Workshops