3,414 research outputs found
Regularization and Bayesian Learning in Dynamical Systems: Past, Present and Future
Regularization and Bayesian methods for system identification have been
repopularized in the recent years, and proved to be competitive w.r.t.
classical parametric approaches. In this paper we shall make an attempt to
illustrate how the use of regularization in system identification has evolved
over the years, starting from the early contributions both in the Automatic
Control as well as Econometrics and Statistics literature. In particular we
shall discuss some fundamental issues such as compound estimation problems and
exchangeability which play and important role in regularization and Bayesian
approaches, as also illustrated in early publications in Statistics. The
historical and foundational issues will be given more emphasis (and space), at
the expense of the more recent developments which are only briefly discussed.
The main reason for such a choice is that, while the recent literature is
readily available, and surveys have already been published on the subject, in
the author's opinion a clear link with past work had not been completely
clarified.Comment: Plenary Presentation at the IFAC SYSID 2015. Submitted to Annual
Reviews in Contro
Variational Downscaling, Fusion and Assimilation of Hydrometeorological States via Regularized Estimation
Improved estimation of hydrometeorological states from down-sampled
observations and background model forecasts in a noisy environment, has been a
subject of growing research in the past decades. Here, we introduce a unified
framework that ties together the problems of downscaling, data fusion and data
assimilation as ill-posed inverse problems. This framework seeks solutions
beyond the classic least squares estimation paradigms by imposing proper
regularization, which are constraints consistent with the degree of smoothness
and probabilistic structure of the underlying state. We review relevant
regularization methods in derivative space and extend classic formulations of
the aforementioned problems with particular emphasis on hydrologic and
atmospheric applications. Informed by the statistical characteristics of the
state variable of interest, the central results of the paper suggest that
proper regularization can lead to a more accurate and stable recovery of the
true state and hence more skillful forecasts. In particular, using the Tikhonov
and Huber regularization in the derivative space, the promise of the proposed
framework is demonstrated in static downscaling and fusion of synthetic
multi-sensor precipitation data, while a data assimilation numerical experiment
is presented using the heat equation in a variational setting
A 4D-Var Method with Flow-Dependent Background Covariances for the Shallow-Water Equations
The 4D-Var method for filtering partially observed nonlinear chaotic
dynamical systems consists of finding the maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimator
of the initial condition of the system given observations over a time window,
and propagating it forward to the current time via the model dynamics. This
method forms the basis of most currently operational weather forecasting
systems. In practice the optimization becomes infeasible if the time window is
too long due to the non-convexity of the cost function, the effect of model
errors, and the limited precision of the ODE solvers. Hence the window has to
be kept sufficiently short, and the observations in the previous windows can be
taken into account via a Gaussian background (prior) distribution. The choice
of the background covariance matrix is an important question that has received
much attention in the literature. In this paper, we define the background
covariances in a principled manner, based on observations in the previous
assimilation windows, for a parameter . The method is at most times
more computationally expensive than using fixed background covariances,
requires little tuning, and greatly improves the accuracy of 4D-Var. As a
concrete example, we focus on the shallow-water equations. The proposed method
is compared against state-of-the-art approaches in data assimilation and is
shown to perform favourably on simulated data. We also illustrate our approach
on data from the recent tsunami of 2011 in Fukushima, Japan.Comment: 32 pages, 5 figure
Derivative-free online learning of inverse dynamics models
This paper discusses online algorithms for inverse dynamics modelling in
robotics. Several model classes including rigid body dynamics (RBD) models,
data-driven models and semiparametric models (which are a combination of the
previous two classes) are placed in a common framework. While model classes
used in the literature typically exploit joint velocities and accelerations,
which need to be approximated resorting to numerical differentiation schemes,
in this paper a new `derivative-free' framework is proposed that does not
require this preprocessing step. An extensive experimental study with real data
from the right arm of the iCub robot is presented, comparing different model
classes and estimation procedures, showing that the proposed `derivative-free'
methods outperform existing methodologies.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figure
Decentralized Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Sensor Networks Composed of Nonlinearly Coupled Dynamical Systems
In this paper we propose a decentralized sensor network scheme capable to
reach a globally optimum maximum likelihood (ML) estimate through
self-synchronization of nonlinearly coupled dynamical systems. Each node of the
network is composed of a sensor and a first-order dynamical system initialized
with the local measurements. Nearby nodes interact with each other exchanging
their state value and the final estimate is associated to the state derivative
of each dynamical system. We derive the conditions on the coupling mechanism
guaranteeing that, if the network observes one common phenomenon, each node
converges to the globally optimal ML estimate. We prove that the synchronized
state is globally asymptotically stable if the coupling strength exceeds a
given threshold. Acting on a single parameter, the coupling strength, we show
how, in the case of nonlinear coupling, the network behavior can switch from a
global consensus system to a spatial clustering system. Finally, we show the
effect of the network topology on the scalability properties of the network and
we validate our theoretical findings with simulation results.Comment: Journal paper accepted on IEEE Transactions on Signal Processin
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