Performance modelling with adaptive hidden Markov models and discriminatory processor sharing queues

In modern computer systems, workload varies at different times and locations. It is important to model the performance of such systems via workload models that are both representative and efficient. For example, model-generated workloads represent realistic system behaviour, especially during peak times, when it is crucial to predict and address performance bottlenecks. In this thesis, we model performance, namely throughput and delay, using adaptive models and discrete queues. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) parsimoniously capture the correlation and burstiness of workloads with spatiotemporal characteristics. By adapting the batch training of standard HMMs to incremental learning, online HMMs act as benchmarks on workloads obtained from live systems (i.e. storage systems and financial markets) and reduce time complexity of the Baum-Welch algorithm. Similarly, by extending HMM capabilities to train on multiple traces simultaneously it follows that workloads of different types are modelled in parallel by a multi-input HMM. Typically, the HMM-generated traces verify the throughput and burstiness of the real data. Applications of adaptive HMMs include predicting user behaviour in social networks and performance-energy measurements in smartphone applications. Equally important is measuring system delay through response times. For example, workloads such as Internet traffic arriving at routers are affected by queueing delays. To meet quality of service needs, queueing delays must be minimised and, hence, it is important to model and predict such queueing delays in an efficient and cost-effective manner. Therefore, we propose a class of discrete, processor-sharing queues for approximating queueing delay as response time distributions, which represent service level agreements at specific spatiotemporal levels. We adapt discrete queues to model job arrivals with distributions given by a Markov-modulated Poisson process (MMPP) and served under discriminatory processor-sharing scheduling. Further, we propose a dynamic strategy of service allocation to minimise delays in UDP traffic flows whilst maximising a utility function.Open Acces

Point Process Models for Heterogeneous Event Time Data

Interaction event times observed on a social network provide valuable information for social scientists to gain insight into complex social dynamics that are challenging to understand. However, it can be difficult to accurately represent the heterogeneity in the data and to model the dependence structure in the network system. This requires flexible models that can capture the complicated dynamics and complex patterns. Point process models offer an elegant framework for modeling event time data. This dissertation concentrates on developing point process models and related diagnostic tools, with a real data application involving an animal behavior network. In this dissertation, we first propose a Markov-modulated Hawkes process (MMHP) model to capture the sporadic and bursty patterns often observed in event time data. A Bayesian inference procedure is developed to evaluate the likelihood by using a variational approximation and the forward-backward algorithm. The validity of the proposed model and associated estimation algorithms is demonstrated using synthetic data and the animal behavior data. Facilitated by the power of the MMHP model, we construct network point process models that can capture a social hierarchy structure by embedding nodes in a latent space that can represent the underlying social ranks. Our model provides a ranking method for social hierarchy studies and describes the dynamics of social hierarchy formation from a novel perspective – taking advantage of the detailed information available in event time data. We show that the network point process models appropriately captures the temporal dynamics and heterogeneity in the network event time data, by providing meaningful inferred rankings and by calibrating the accuracy of predictions with relevant measures of uncertainty. In addition to developing a sensible and flexible model for network event time data, the last part of this dissertation provides essential tools for diagnosing lack of fit issues for such models. We develop a systematic set of diagnostic tools and visualizations for point process models fitted to data in the dynamic network setting. By inspecting the structure of the residual process and Pearson residual on the network, we can validate whether a model adequately captures the temporal and network dependence structures in the observed data

Quality aspects of Internet telephony

Internet telephony has had a tremendous impact on how people communicate. Many now maintain contact using some form of Internet telephony. Therefore the motivation for this work has been to address the quality aspects of real-world Internet telephony for both fixed and wireless telecommunication. The focus has been on the quality aspects of voice communication, since poor quality leads often to user dissatisfaction. The scope of the work has been broad in order to address the main factors within IP-based voice communication. The first four chapters of this dissertation constitute the background material. The first chapter outlines where Internet telephony is deployed today. It also motivates the topics and techniques used in this research. The second chapter provides the background on Internet telephony including signalling, speech coding and voice Internetworking. The third chapter focuses solely on quality measures for packetised voice systems and finally the fourth chapter is devoted to the history of voice research. The appendix of this dissertation constitutes the research contributions. It includes an examination of the access network, focusing on how calls are multiplexed in wired and wireless systems. Subsequently in the wireless case, we consider how to handover calls from 802.11 networks to the cellular infrastructure. We then consider the Internet backbone where most of our work is devoted to measurements specifically for Internet telephony. The applications of these measurements have been estimating telephony arrival processes, measuring call quality, and quantifying the trend in Internet telephony quality over several years. We also consider the end systems, since they are responsible for reconstructing a voice stream given loss and delay constraints. Finally we estimate voice quality using the ITU proposal PESQ and the packet loss process. The main contribution of this work is a systematic examination of Internet telephony. We describe several methods to enable adaptable solutions for maintaining consistent voice quality. We have also found that relatively small technical changes can lead to substantial user quality improvements. A second contribution of this work is a suite of software tools designed to ascertain voice quality in IP networks. Some of these tools are in use within commercial systems today

Admission control for Web server systems - design and experimental evaluation

evaluatio

The effect of workload dependence in systems: Experimental evaluation, analytic models, and policy development

This dissertation presents an analysis of performance effects of burstiness (formalized by the autocorrelation function) in multi-tiered systems via a 3-pronged approach, i.e., experimental measurements, analytic models, and policy development. This analysis considers (a) systems with finite buffers (e.g., systems with admission control that effectively operate as closed systems) and (b) systems with infinite buffers (i.e., systems that operate as open systems).;For multi-tiered systems with a finite buffer size, experimental measurements show that if autocorrelation exists in any of the tiers in a multi-tiered system, then autocorrelation propagates to all tiers of the system. The presence of autocorrelated flows in all tiers significantly degrades performance. Workload characterization in a real experimental environment driven by the TPC-W benchmark confirms the existence of autocorrelated flows, which originate from the autocorrelated service process of one of the tiers. A simple model is devised that captures the observed behavior. The model is in excellent agreement with experimental measurements and captures the propagation of autocorrelation in the multi-tiered system as well as the resulting performance trends.;For systems with an infinite buffer size, this study focuses on analytic models by proposing and comparing two families of approximations for the departure process of a BMAP/MAP/1 queue that admits batch correlated flows, and whose service time process may be autocorrelated. One approximation is based on the ETAQA methodology for the solution of M/G/1-type processes and the other arises from lumpability rules. Formal proofs are provided: both approximations preserve the marginal distribution of the inter-departure times and their initial correlation structures.;This dissertation also demonstrates how the knowledge of autocorrelation can be used to effectively improve system performance, D_EQAL, a new load balancing policy for clusters with dependent arrivals is proposed. D_EQAL separates jobs to servers according to their sizes as traditional load balancing policies do, but this separation is biased by the effort to reduce performance loss due to autocorrelation in the streams of jobs that are directed to each server. as a result of this, not all servers are equally utilized (i.e., the load in the system becomes unbalanced) but performance benefits of this load unbalancing are significant

Intelligent packet discarding policies for real-time traffic over wireless networks.

Yuen Ching Wan.Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2006.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 77-83).Abstracts in English and Chinese.Abstract --- p.iAcknowledgement --- p.iiiChapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1Chapter 1.1 --- Nature of Real-Time Traffic --- p.1Chapter 1.2 --- Delay Variability in Wireless Networks --- p.2Chapter 1.2.1 --- Propagation Medium --- p.3Chapter 1.2.2 --- Impacts of Network Designs --- p.5Chapter 1.3 --- The Keys - Packet Lifetime & Channel State --- p.8Chapter 1.4 --- Contributions of the Thesis --- p.8Chapter 1.5 --- Organization of the Thesis --- p.9Chapter 2 --- Background Study --- p.11Chapter 2.1 --- Packet Scheduling --- p.12Chapter 2.2 --- Call Admission Control (CAC) --- p.12Chapter 2.3 --- Active Queue Management (AQM) --- p.13Chapter 2.3.1 --- AQM for Wired Network --- p.14Chapter 2.3.2 --- AQM for Wireless Network --- p.17Chapter 3 --- Intelligent Packet Discarding Policies --- p.21Chapter 3.1 --- Random Packet Discard --- p.22Chapter 3.1.1 --- Variable Buffer Limit (VABL) --- p.22Chapter 3.2 --- Packet Discard on Expiration Likelihood (PEL) --- p.23Chapter 3.2.1 --- Working Principle --- p.24Chapter 3.2.2 --- Channel State Aware Packet Discard on Expiration Likelihood (CAPEL) --- p.26Chapter 3.3 --- System Modeling --- p.29Chapter 3.3.1 --- Wireless Channel as an Markov-Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP) --- p.30Chapter 3.3.2 --- System Analysis --- p.30Chapter 3.3.3 --- System Time Distribution --- p.33Chapter 3.3.4 --- Approximation of System Time Distribution by Gamma Distribution --- p.36Chapter 3.4 --- Goodput Analysis of Intelligent Packet Discarding Policies --- p.38Chapter 3.4.1 --- Variable Buffer Limit (VABL) --- p.38Chapter 3.4.2 --- CAPEL at the End-of-Line --- p.39Chapter 3.4.3 --- CAPEL at the Head-of-Line --- p.43Chapter 4 --- Performance Evaluation --- p.44Chapter 4.1 --- Simulation --- p.44Chapter 4.1.1 --- General Settings --- p.45Chapter 4.1.2 --- Choices of Parameters --- p.46Chapter 4.1.3 --- Variable Buffer Limit (VABL) --- p.49Chapter 4.1.4 --- CAPEL at the End-of-Line --- p.53Chapter 4.1.5 --- CAPEL at the Head-of-Line --- p.60Chapter 4.2 --- General Discussion --- p.64Chapter 4.2.1 --- CAPEL vs RED --- p.64Chapter 4.2.2 --- Gamma Approximation for System Time Distribution . --- p.69Chapter 5 --- Conclusion --- p.70Chapter A --- Equation Derivation --- p.73Chapter A.l --- Steady State Probabilities --- p.73Bibliography --- p.7