Grid Scale Battery Energy Storage Investment Potential - Analysis and Simulations of Frequency Control Markets in Germany and the UK

The need for energy storages in future power systems is acknowledged both in literature and in industry. Simultaneously battery energy storage technologies, especially Lithium-ion, are seen technologically relatively mature with favorable cost development. Whereas frequency control markets provide exploitable commercial and technical framework for battery investment. Nevertheless, true commercial viability is still uncertain in leading European markets in Germany and the UK. The purpose of the study was to provide complete and comparative market analysis and demonstrated prospective investment profitability outcomes for grid scale battery energy storages in Germany and the UK. In addition, the study aimed to show required conditions for desired investment performances. The study explored investment potential in primary frequency control market in Germany and enhanced frequency response market in the UK by analyzing market attractiveness from multiple aspects. The countries were ranked based on the analyzed aspects by Analytical Hierarchy Process. Finally, financial Monte Carlo investment simulations with revenue and cost uncertainties were performed. Simulations also provided required conditions for profitability. Analyzed data was based on historical market data, performed online market research and literature. Key findings of the study revealed that the chosen markets form suitable commercial framework for battery investments, but Germany shows clearly higher potential. However, the potential was questionable since both markets face significant challenges especially in financial sense. The concerns were confirmed by the simulations which suggested around 1–5 % and -3–3 % internal rate of return levels for Germany and the UK respectively. In addition, reaching 6 % return was seen very challenging whilst over 10 % return levels seemed unrealistic in the UK and extremely optimistic for Germany. The overall conclusion was that battery energy storage investment in either of the markets cannot currently be justified primarily by financial returns but needs strategic support.fi=Opinnäytetyö kokotekstinä PDF-muodossa.|en=Thesis fulltext in PDF format.|sv=Lärdomsprov tillgängligt som fulltext i PDF-format

Risks and Prospects of Smart Electric Grids Systems measured with Real Options

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Evaluating risks in public private partnerships : the case of the portuguese road sector

Master of Science Finance (Financial Institutions)Throughout the last few decades, it has been verified a significant raise in the use of Public-Private Partnerships, by part of the world’s economic governments as an alternative in the management and financing of infrastructural investments to joust the problematic of the infrastructure gap. From the projects sponsors point of view, the capital investment's strategic decisions are fundamental, so that the feasibility studies of partnerships are a critical factor for operational success and their management. However, for these agents, the risk-return question is preponderant, due to the soaring of financial, political and market risks, which will organize the imperative of application of new evaluation methods, as the case of the IRR-at-Risk, Cash Flow-at-Risk and the NPV-at-Risk, where the latter combines the dual issue of risk-return and the average weighted cost of capital. Therefore, this investigation aims to proceed to the application of the listed methods for the Public-Private road institutions in Portugal. Based in a sample from the 7 SCUT and 7 new concessions (highways), we will seek to apply the decision methods of risk-return in order to prove that these can provide better decisions in matters of risk and investments analysis compared to the methods of traditional financial evaluation. The results show that, for the sponsors, the methods of risk-return provides better decisions if include the element of risk in projects.Ao longo das últimas décadas tem se verificado um aumento significativo, por uma parte da governação económica mundial, ao recurso de PPP, como alternativa em matéria de gestão e de financiamento de investimentos infra-estrtuturais, de modo a combater a problemática do the infrastructure gap. Do ponto de vista dos sponsors (patrocinadores) dos projectos, as decisões estratégicas de investimento de capital são fundamentais, pelo que os estudos de viabilidade das parcerias são um dos factores críticos para o sucesso operacional e de gestão dos mesmos. Porém, para estes agentes, a questão de retorno-risco é preponderante, dados os elevados riscos financeiros, políticos e de mercado, o que irá originar o imperativo de aplicação de novos métodos de avaliação, como o caso do IRR-at-Risk, Cash Flow-at-Risk e do NPV-at-Risk, sendo que este último combina a questão dupla de retorno-risco e o custo médio ponderado do capital. Assim, esta investigação tem como objectivo proceder à aplicação dos métodos indicados às PPP rodoviárias em Portugal. Com base numa amostra de 7 SCUT e 7 Auto-Estradas, procurar-se-á aplicar os métodos de decisão de retorno-risco, de modo a comprovar que o estes poderão fornecer melhores decisões em matéria de análise de risco e de investimentos, comparativamente aos métodos de avaliação financeira tradicionais. Os resultados denotam que os métodos de retorno-risco, para os sponsors, fornecem melhores decisões ao incluirem a component de risco nos projectos