An Aircraft Evacuation Simulation Baseline Using DES for Passenger Path Planning

This paper introduced a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model that simulates passengers’ evacuation paths and decision-making processes during aircraft certification. The model was built using ARENA® 14, which is a DES simulation tool. This model used A380 cabin configuration with capacity of 538 passengers. Each passenger was considered as an independent human being with variations in walking speed, decision-making processes, and evacuation path. This model generated total evacuation time and presented total congestion conditions of each gate. Federal Regulation has suggested that all passengers in the airplane should finish the evacuation within 90 seconds. The model was validated with the A380 certification evacuation, which was 78.2 sec. This model was tested and statistically validated for aircraft evacuation. However, the validation model has limitations in passengers’ freedom of choosing a gate. To advance the simulation, an experiment was conducted based on the modification of the validation model to simulate the effect on total evacuation time of passengers switching gates while waiting to exit. At the end of this paper, future study directions were suggested to innovate the baseline by adding human interactions and advanced methods in dynamic simulation technology

Pedestrian Evacuation Modeling and Simulation on Metro Platforms Considering Panic Impacts

AbstractA pedestrian evacuation model is presented, in which the social force model and a mathematical model are incorporated. The social force model is capable of describing the pedestrian behavior realistically under the non-panic evacuation situations. However, a series of catastrophes make us reasonably think about crowd dynamics under stress and panic. In order to forecast the catastrophe point of pedestrian mood changes in a real emergency situation, a mathematical model is proposed by considering residence time, crowd density and exit distance. This paper follows the implementation of the system simulation modeling environment written in Java program language on AnyLogic simulation software to facilitate studying the panic spread mechanisms of passengers. Furthermore, different simulation scenarios on passenger evacuation from the platform of the Xizhimen Metro station in Beijing are carried out to validate the feasibility of the proposed method and to further evaluate the influence of evacuees’ number and pedestrian distribution on evacuation efficiency when passenger panic is spreading

Multi-scale Models for Transportation Systems Under Emergency Conditions

The purpose of this study is to investigate human behavior in emergencies. More specifically, agent-based simulation and social force models were developed to examine the impact of various human and environmental factors on the efficiency of the evacuation process, through a series of case studies. The independent variables of the case studies include the number of exits, the number of passengers, the evacuation policies, and instructions, as well as the queue configuration and wall separators. The results revealed the location of the exits, number of exits, evacuation strategies, and group behaviors all significantly impact the total time of the evacuation. For the queue configuration, short aisles lower infection spread when rope separators were used. The findings provide new insights in designing layout, planning, practice, and training strategies for improving the effectiveness of the pedestrian evacuation process under emergency

The Effects of Carry-on Baggage on Aircraft Evacuation Efficiency

The most frequent obstacle of an aircraft evacuation is the passengers carrying baggage while evacuating. Passengers who insist on taking their carry-on baggage during an emergency evacuation not only slow down the evacuation process but also act as a significant risk to the safety of other passengers. This study investigated the factors that affect passengers’ behavioral intention to evacuate with carry-on baggage and the effects of evacuating with carry-on baggage on the total evacuation time. Overall, two studies were conducted to provide an outline of the factors that affect and affected by carry-on baggage. Study 1 used an agent-based model, AnyLogic, to simulate the aircraft evacuation model of an A380. The model was validated, and a two-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was conducted to examine the effects of the percentage of passengers evacuating with carry-on baggage and exit selection choices on the total evacuation time. The simulation results suggested that the mean evacuation time for 0% was significantly lower than 50% and 80%. The mean evacuation time for the shortest queue choice was also lower than the closest exit choice. Study 2 used an expanded theory of planned behavior (TPB) to determine the factors that affect passengers’ intentions to evacuate with carry-on baggage. The total sample size was 281 after data cleaning. The confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equation model (SEM) were used to analyze the data. The results indicated that attitude was the significant determinant of passengers’ intention to evacuate with carryon baggage. The factor of ‘perceived risk’ was not supported, but the results showed that the opposite effect of the hypothesis was significant. The results of this study fill a gap in the research regarding passengers’ behavior of evacuating with carry-on baggage. Potential applications of this study will also help the federal regulations, airlines, and aircraft manufacturers by providing a better understanding of carry-on baggage at aircraft emergency

Numerical investigation of the fatal 1985 Manchester Airport B737 fire

In this paper, fire and evacuation computer simulations are used to reconstruct the 1985 Manchester Airport B737 fire that resulted in the loss of 55 lives. First the actual fire and evacuation are reconstructed. Secondly, the impact of exit opening times and external wind on the fire and evacuation are investigated. Finally, the potential benefit offered by modern materials is evaluated. The results suggest that the number of fatalities could have been reduced by 87% had the forward right exit not malfunctioned and by 36% had the right over-wing exit been opened without delay. Furthermore, given the fuel pool size and location, a critical wind speed of 1.5 m/s is necessary to cause the fire plume to lean onto the fuselage eventually resulting in fuselage burn-through. Finally, it is suggested that the use of modern cabin materials could have made a significant difference to the fire development and survivability

A holistic model of emergency evacuations in large, complex, public occupancy buildings

Evacuations are crucial for ensuring the safety of building occupants in the event of an emergency. In large, complex, public occupancy buildings (LCPOBs) these procedures are significantly more complex than the simple withdrawal of people from a building. This thesis has developed a novel, holistic, theoretical model of emergency evacuations in LCPOBs inspired by systems safety theory. LCPOBs are integral components of complex socio-technical systems, and therefore the model describes emergency evacuations as control actions initiated in order to return the building from an unsafe state to a safe state where occupants are not at risk of harm. The emergency evacuation process itself is comprised of four aspects - the movement (of building occupants), planning and management, environmental features, and evacuee behaviour. To demonstrate its utility and applicability, the model has been employed to examine various aspects of evacuation procedures in two example LCPOBs - airport terminals, and sports stadiums. The types of emergency events initiating evacuations in these buildings were identified through a novel hazard analysis procedure, which utilised online news articles to create events databases of previous evacuations. Security and terrorism events, false alarms, and fires were found to be the most common cause of evacuations in these buildings. The management of evacuations was explored through model-based systems engineering techniques, which identified the communication methods and responsibilities of staff members managing these events. Social media posts for an active shooting event were analysed using qualitative and machine learning methods to determine their utility for situational awareness. This data source is likely not informative for this purpose, as few posts detail occupant behaviours. Finally, an experimental study on pedestrian dynamics with movement devices was conducted, which determined that walking speeds during evacuations were unaffected by evacuees dragging luggage, but those pushing pushchairs and wheelchairs will walk significantly slower.Open Acces

Designing Agent-based Modeling in Dynamic Crowd Simulation for Stressful Environment

In recent years, modeling and simulation technologies have been gaining tremendous momentum in investigating crowd dynamics. Various simulation architectures have been developed and virtual environment representations have also been constructed for crowd simulations. To represent the behavior of a crowd, a number of behavior models have been proposed with different types of modeling approaches, such as flow-based models and agent-based models. Crowd models may also concern different aspects of a crowd. In modeling stress response, a method based on well-established theory of Generalized Adaptation Syndrome (GAS) has been developed to simulate the dynamic behavior of the crowd. However, there is still lacking of method to address the way virtual agent interacts with the instant changing behavior of the crowd during stressful events. This study were review current work on modelling stress and stress behavior models and extends it into the area of crowd simulation to simulate the behavior of the stress response of virtual agent during stressful events. It attempts to look into the solution of the problem and utilized a method based on the psychological theory of GAS to develop an algorithm for responsive virtual agent under stressful events by determining the dynamic behavior

Designing agent-based modeling in dynamic crowd simulation for stressful environment

In recent years, modeling and simulation technologies have been gaining tremendous momentum in investigating crowd dynamics.Various simulation architectures have been developed and virtual environment representations have also been constructed for crowd simulations.To represent the behavior of a crowd, a number of behavior models have been proposed with different types of modeling approaches, such as flow-based models and agent-based models.Crowd models may also concern different aspects of a crowd. In modeling stress response, a method based on well-established theory of Generalized Adaptation Syndrome (GAS) has been developed to simulate the dynamic behavior of the crowd.However, there is still lacking of method to address the way virtual agent interacts with the instant changing behavior of the crowd during stressful events.This study were review current work on modelling stress and stress behavior models and extends it into the area of crowd simulation to simulate the behavior of the stress response of virtual agent during stressful events.It attempts to look into the solution of the problem and utilized a method based on the psychological theory of GAS to develop an algorithm for responsive virtual agent under stressful events by determining the dynamic behavior

An investigation of the practices used in airline crew scheduling and their impact on the physical and mental health of airline crew

The literatures surrounding the topics of crew scheduling optimization and crew health are often researched separately. The models are disconnected from the people they affect and are often seen as separate and neutral entities, despite being intrinsically connected with the mental and physical health of flight crews, in the same way that a typical work schedule impacts the physical and mental health of traditional full-time employees. With this in mind, this report gives a high-level overview of popular scheduling models and also, more importantly examines how the use of these models and current schedule optimization practices directly and indirectly impact the health of flight crews.Informatio

An investigation of the changing commercial airline passenger anthropometry and its effects on aircraft safety and performance

At first glance, anthropometry and aviation would appear to be unrelated to one another; however, an important relationship exists between them. Aircraft are vehicles that are primarily designed to transport people across long distances, and new aircraft types with enhanced design features are continually being developed, built then entering the aviation market for global airline service. These enhancements to human–machine interfaces ensure continued safety and efficiency, improve performance and prolong the life cycle of components. However, they often do not consider the effect of the changing anthropometric characteristics of the passenger. The media and the medical literature have identified increasing global trends in the average weight and height of passengers, as well as other anthropometrical and biometrical measures. However, the majority of these studies have been limited to exploring the ramifications primarily from the perspective of passengers’ experience. This thesis is the first to explore the explicit relationship between commercial passengers’ anthropometry and aircraft safety, design and performance. It highlights the importance of considering passengers’ anthropometric characteristics from a holistic perspective, and it identifies gaps for future research. A thorough search of the available literature shows that this topic has received little attention, thereby demonstrating the need for this research. Most literature to date has revealed that there is limited knowledge regarding the ramifications of changes in passengers’ anthropometry. The two main areas of focus of this research are aircraft performance and aircraft safety. Aircraft Performance All aircraft are designed to ensure optimal performance during flight, with key flight characteristics interacting and changing depending on the aircraft’s weight. However, the correct estimation of the passenger component of that weight is often overlooked when compared with the weight of freight or fuel. Passenger weight is typically set to a predetermined value by aviation regulators; therefore, it does not reflect the true weight of the passengers onboard. In some cases, the standard weights issued by the regulator are out of date and do not reflect current society trends in obesity. Hence, the research component that addresses aircraft performance explores the effect of passenger weight attributes and obesity on several aircraft performance characteristics. The numerical performance analysis uses spreadsheets to calculate the various performance objectives related to specific phases in the flight. The performance literature shows that similar methods have been used to analyse data, predominantly for studies regarding aircraft flight attributes. The key benefit of spreadsheets is that they allow changes to be made to initial base parameters such as passenger weight, aircraft data and initial conditions. It was concluded that Western countries with a higher prevalence of obesity and lower standard passenger weights might overestimate performance characteristics such as fuel usage, range, landing and take-off performance. Similarly, countries (predominantly African) with lower obesity prevalence underestimate these performance characteristics because they rely on standard weights from the Federal Aviation Administration, European Aviation Safety Authority and Civil Aviation Authority United Kingdom. Overall performance characteristics for any aircraft type considered in this study will be significantly affected if existing obesity growth forecasts for the next few decades are proven to be accurate. This justifies the need for more accurate regulations and improved flight operational procedures. Safety—Emergency Egress The design of commercial passenger aircraft must take into consideration the certification requirement that all occupants should be able to evacuate from the cabin within 90 seconds in an emergency. Manufacturers are required to demonstrate compliance with this regulatory requirement using the aircraft to be certified. There is a significant risk of injury to participants when conducting evacuation tests. To determine whether passengers can evacuate safely from the aircraft within 90 seconds, manufacturers may use computer-aided simulations to mitigate risks to participants. This has an added benefit of allowing customisation of the profiles of the individual models used. The research component in this study involved simulations using two aircraft types: narrow-body (180 seats) and wide-body (399 seats) aircraft. Both aircraft are modelled using the multi-application egress simulation software package Pathfinder. Multiple scenarios are explored and consist of different levels of obesity prevalence ranging from the control parameter of 55% to higher levels of obesity prevalence that mirror obesity growth forecasts. These scenarios form three situations in which different body mass index (BMI) groups have greater prevalence in society: overweight (25<BMI<30), obese (30<BMI<40) and morbid obesity (BMI>40). A total of 98 different anthropometric profiles based on age, gender and BMI were created. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used for the model in this study. A total of 40 repeated simulations were conducted for each scenario. The results showed that when obesity prevalence increases, the evacuation time of both aircraft types also increases. Increasing overall obesity by just 5% can lead to an increase in the egress time of approximately two seconds for the wide-body aircraft scenario. Further, regression analysis for both aircraft demonstrated that the variables of BMI and distance to exit have strong statistical significance for overall evacuation time. A sensitivity study was conducted for delay time, which represents the sit-to-stand time of the occupant. This study was needed because Pathfinder could not allocate delay times to individual profiles, but only to the overall occupant population. The control scenario formed the basis of this study, and the control delay time standard deviation was used as a factor to change the delay time. The results showed that the delay time did not affect the egress time, except for the highest delay time scenario of six standard deviations above the control time. A bus emergency egress exercise was conducted in August 2018 to validate the model. This exercise involved conducting several evacuations from a bus and then replicating the trials in Pathfinder. The results were consistent between the simulations and the experimental exercise and showed that the model has an uncertainty interval of −4.5% to 6.5%