A Review of Classification Problems and Algorithms in Renewable Energy Applications

Classification problems and their corresponding solving approaches constitute one of the fields of machine learning. The application of classification schemes in Renewable Energy (RE) has gained significant attention in the last few years, contributing to the deployment, management and optimization of RE systems. The main objective of this paper is to review the most important classification algorithms applied to RE problems, including both classical and novel algorithms. The paper also provides a comprehensive literature review and discussion on different classification techniques in specific RE problems, including wind speed/power prediction, fault diagnosis in RE systems, power quality disturbance classification and other applications in alternative RE systems. In this way, the paper describes classification techniques and metrics applied to RE problems, thus being useful both for researchers dealing with this kind of problem and for practitioners of the field

QUALITATIVE ANSWERING SURVEYS AND SOFT COMPUTING

In this work, we reflect on some questions about the measurement problem in economics and, especially, their relationship with the scientific method. Statistical sources frequently used by economists contain qualitative information obtained from verbal expressions of individuals by means of surveys, and we discuss the reasons why it would be more adequately analyzed with soft methods than with traditional ones. Some comments on the most commonly applied techniques in the analysis of these types of data with verbal answers are followed by our proposal to compute with words. In our view, an alternative use of the well known Income Evaluation Question seems especially suggestive for a computing with words approach, since it would facilitate an empirical estimation of the corresponding linguistic variable adjectives. A new treatment of the information contained in such surveys would avoid some questions incorporated in the so called Leyden approach that do not fit to the actual world.Computing with words, Leyden approach, qualitative answering surveys, fuzzy logic

Time series data mining: preprocessing, analysis, segmentation and prediction. Applications

Currently, the amount of data which is produced for any information system is increasing exponentially. This motivates the development of automatic techniques to process and mine these data correctly. Specifically, in this Thesis, we tackled these problems for time series data, that is, temporal data which is collected chronologically. This kind of data can be found in many fields of science, such as palaeoclimatology, hydrology, financial problems, etc. TSDM consists of several tasks which try to achieve different objectives, such as, classification, segmentation, clustering, prediction, analysis, etc. However, in this Thesis, we focus on time series preprocessing, segmentation and prediction. Time series preprocessing is a prerequisite for other posterior tasks: for example, the reconstruction of missing values in incomplete parts of time series can be essential for clustering them. In this Thesis, we tackled the problem of massive missing data reconstruction in SWH time series from the Gulf of Alaska. It is very common that buoys stop working for different periods, what it is usually related to malfunctioning or bad weather conditions. The relation of the time series of each buoy is analysed and exploited to reconstruct the whole missing time series. In this context, EANNs with PUs are trained, showing that the resulting models are simple and able to recover these values with high precision. In the case of time series segmentation, the procedure consists in dividing the time series into different subsequences to achieve different purposes. This segmentation can be done trying to find useful patterns in the time series. In this Thesis, we have developed novel bioinspired algorithms in this context. For instance, for paleoclimate data, an initial genetic algorithm was proposed to discover early warning signals of TPs, whose detection was supported by expert opinions. However, given that the expert had to individually evaluate every solution given by the algorithm, the evaluation of the results was very tedious. This led to an improvement in the body of the GA to evaluate the procedure automatically. For significant wave height time series, the objective was the detection of groups which contains extreme waves, i.e. those which are relatively large with respect other waves close in time. The main motivation is to design alert systems. This was done using an HA, where an LS process was included by using a likelihood-based segmentation, assuming that the points follow a beta distribution. Finally, the analysis of similarities in different periods of European stock markets was also tackled with the aim of evaluating the influence of different markets in Europe. When segmenting time series with the aim of reducing the number of points, different techniques have been proposed. However, it is an open challenge given the difficulty to operate with large amounts of data in different applications. In this work, we propose a novel statistically-driven CRO algorithm (SCRO), which automatically adapts its parameters during the evolution, taking into account the statistical distribution of the population fitness. This algorithm improves the state-of-the-art with respect to accuracy and robustness. Also, this problem has been tackled using an improvement of the BBPSO algorithm, which includes a dynamical update of the cognitive and social components in the evolution, combined with mathematical tricks to obtain the fitness of the solutions, which significantly reduces the computational cost of previously proposed coral reef methods. Also, the optimisation of both objectives (clustering quality and approximation quality), which are in conflict, could be an interesting open challenge, which will be tackled in this Thesis. For that, an MOEA for time series segmentation is developed, improving the clustering quality of the solutions and their approximation. The prediction in time series is the estimation of future values by observing and studying the previous ones. In this context, we solve this task by applying prediction over high-order representations of the elements of the time series, i.e. the segments obtained by time series segmentation. This is applied to two challenging problems, i.e. the prediction of extreme wave height and fog prediction. On the one hand, the number of extreme values in SWH time series is less with respect to the number of standard values. In this way, the prediction of these values cannot be done using standard algorithms without taking into account the imbalanced ratio of the dataset. For that, an algorithm that automatically finds the set of segments and then applies EANNs is developed, showing the high ability of the algorithm to detect and predict these special events. On the other hand, fog prediction is affected by the same problem, that is, the number of fog events is much lower tan that of non-fog events, requiring a special treatment too. A preprocessing of different data coming from sensors situated in different parts of the Valladolid airport are used for making a simple ANN model, which is physically corroborated and discussed. The last challenge which opens new horizons is the estimation of the statistical distribution of time series to guide different methodologies. For this, the estimation of a mixed distribution for SWH time series is then used for fixing the threshold of POT approaches. Also, the determination of the fittest distribution for the time series is used for discretising it and making a prediction which treats the problem as ordinal classification. The work developed in this Thesis is supported by twelve papers in international journals, seven papers in international conferences, and four papers in national conferences

Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods

In this article we analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. We suggest that the level of cross-border holdings of long-term securities between the United States and the rest of the world may indicate a direct link between the turmoil in the securitized market originated in the United States and that in other countries. We provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several Economics and Operations Research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults; we also extensively outline the methodologies used in them. The intent of this article is to promote future empirical research for preventing financial crises.Subprime mortgage ; Financial crises

A guided search genetic algorithm using mined rules for optimal affective product design

Affective design is an important aspect of new product development, especially for consumer products, to achieve a competitive edge in the marketplace. It can help companies to develop new products that can better satisfy the emotional needs of customers. However, product designers usually encounter difficulties in determining the optimal settings of the design attributes for affective design. In this article, a novel guided search genetic algorithm (GA) approach is proposed to determine the optimal design attribute settings for affective design. The optimization model formulated based on the proposed approach applied constraints and guided search operators, which were formulated based on mined rules, to guide the GA search and to achieve desirable solutions. A case study on the affective design of mobile phones was conducted to illustrate the proposed approach and validate its effectiveness. Validation tests were conducted, and the results show that the guided search GA approach outperforms the GA approach without the guided search strategy in terms of GA convergence and computational time. In addition, the guided search optimization model is capable of improving GA to generate good solutions for affective design

Agrupamiento, predicción y clasificación ordinal para series temporales utilizando técnicas de machine learning: aplicaciones

In the last years, there has been an increase in the number of fields improving their standard processes by using machine learning (ML) techniques. The main reason for this is that the vast amount of data generated by these processes is difficult to be processed by humans. Therefore, the development of automatic methods to process and extract relevant information from these data processes is of great necessity, giving that these approaches could lead to an increase in the economic benefit of enterprises or to a reduction in the workload of some current employments. Concretely, in this Thesis, ML approaches are applied to problems concerning time series data. Time series is a special kind of data in which data points are collected chronologically. Time series are present in a wide variety of fields, such as atmospheric events or engineering applications. Besides, according to the main objective to be satisfied, there are different tasks in the literature applied to time series. Some of them are those on which this Thesis is mainly focused: clustering, classification, prediction and, in general, analysis. Generally, the amount of data to be processed is huge, arising the need of methods able to reduce the dimensionality of time series without decreasing the amount of information. In this sense, the application of time series segmentation procedures dividing the time series into different subsequences is a good option, given that each segment defines a specific behaviour. Once the different segments are obtained, the use of statistical features to characterise them is an excellent way to maximise the information of the time series and simultaneously reducing considerably their dimensionality. In the case of time series clustering, the objective is to find groups of similar time series with the idea of discovering interesting patterns in time series datasets. In this Thesis, we have developed a novel time series clustering technique. The aim of this proposal is twofold: to reduce as much as possible the dimensionality and to develop a time series clustering approach able to outperform current state-of-the-art techniques. In this sense, for the first objective, the time series are segmented in order to divide the them identifying different behaviours. Then, these segments are projected into a vector of statistical features aiming to reduce the dimensionality of the time series. Once this preprocessing step is done, the clustering of the time series is carried out, with a significantly lower computational load. This novel approach has been tested on all the time series datasets available in the University of East Anglia and University of California Riverside (UEA/UCR) time series classification (TSC) repository. Regarding time series classification, two main paths could be differentiated: firstly, nominal TSC, which is a well-known field involving a wide variety of proposals and transformations applied to time series. Concretely, one of the most popular transformation is the shapelet transform (ST), which has been widely used in this field. The original method extracts shapelets from the original time series and uses them for classification purposes. Nevertheless, the full enumeration of all possible shapelets is very time consuming. Therefore, in this Thesis, we have developed a hybrid method that starts with the best shapelets extracted by using the original approach with a time constraint and then tunes these shapelets by using a convolutional neural network (CNN) model. Secondly, time series ordinal classification (TSOC) is an unexplored field beginning with this Thesis. In this way, we have adapted the original ST to the ordinal classification (OC) paradigm by proposing several shapelet quality measures taking advantage of the ordinal information of the time series. This methodology leads to better results than the state-of-the-art TSC techniques for those ordinal time series datasets. All these proposals have been tested on all the time series datasets available in the UEA/UCR TSC repository. With respect to time series prediction, it is based on estimating the next value or values of the time series by considering the previous ones. In this Thesis, several different approaches have been considered depending on the problem to be solved. Firstly, the prediction of low-visibility events produced by fog conditions is carried out by means of hybrid autoregressive models (ARs) combining fixed-size and dynamic windows, adapting itself to the dynamics of the time series. Secondly, the prediction of convective cloud formation (which is a highly imbalance problem given that the number of convective cloud events is much lower than that of non-convective situations) is performed in two completely different ways: 1) tackling the problem as a multi-objective classification task by the use of multi-objective evolutionary artificial neural networks (MOEANNs), in which the two conflictive objectives are accuracy of the minority class and the global accuracy, and 2) tackling the problem from the OC point of view, in which, in order to reduce the imbalance degree, an oversampling approach is proposed along with the use of OC techniques. Thirdly, the prediction of solar radiation is carried out by means of evolutionary artificial neural networks (EANNs) with different combinations of basis functions in the hidden and output layers. Finally, the last challenging problem is the prediction of energy flux from waves and tides. For this, a multitask EANN has been proposed aiming to predict the energy flux at several prediction time horizons (from 6h to 48h). All these proposals and techniques have been corroborated and discussed according to physical and atmospheric models. The work developed in this Thesis is supported by 11 JCR-indexed papers in international journals (7 Q1, 3 Q2, 1 Q3), 11 papers in international conferences, and 4 papers in national conferences

Heterogeneous neural networks: theory and applications

Aquest treball presenta una classe de funcions que serveixen de models neuronals generalitzats per ser usats en xarxes neuronals artificials. Es defineixen com una mesura de similitud que actúa com una definició flexible de neurona vista com un reconeixedor de patrons. La similitud proporciona una marc conceptual i serveix de cobertura unificadora de molts models neuronals de la literatura i d'exploració de noves instàncies de models de neurona. La visió basada en similitud porta amb naturalitat a integrar informació heterogènia, com ara quantitats contínues i discretes (nominals i ordinals), i difuses ó imprecises. Els valors perduts es tracten de manera explícita. Una neurona d'aquesta classe s'anomena neurona heterogènia i qualsevol arquitectura neuronal que en faci ús serà una Xarxa Neuronal Heterogènia.En aquest treball ens concentrem en xarxes neuronals endavant, com focus inicial d'estudi. Els algorismes d'aprenentatge són basats en algorisms evolutius, especialment extesos per treballar amb informació heterogènia. En aquesta tesi es descriu com una certa classe de neurones heterogènies porten a xarxes neuronals que mostren un rendiment molt satisfactori, comparable o superior al de xarxes neuronals tradicionals (com el perceptró multicapa ó la xarxa de base radial), molt especialment en presència d'informació heterogènia, usual en les bases de dades actuals.This work presents a class of functions serving as generalized neuron models to be used in artificial neural networks. They are cast into the common framework of computing a similarity function, a flexible definition of a neuron as a pattern recognizer. The similarity endows the model with a clear conceptual view and serves as a unification cover for many of the existing neural models, including those classically used for the MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) and most of those used in Radial Basis Function Networks (RBF). These families of models are conceptually unified and their relation is clarified. The possibilities of deriving new instances are explored and several neuron models --representative of their families-- are proposed. The similarity view naturally leads to further extensions of the models to handle heterogeneous information, that is to say, information coming from sources radically different in character, including continuous and discrete (ordinal) numerical quantities, nominal (categorical) quantities, and fuzzy quantities. Missing data are also explicitly considered. A neuron of this class is called an heterogeneous neuron and any neural structure making use of them is an Heterogeneous Neural Network (HNN), regardless of the specific architecture or learning algorithm. Among them, in this work we concentrate on feed-forward networks, as the initial focus of study. The learning procedures may include a great variety of techniques, basically divided in derivative-based methods (such as the conjugate gradient)and evolutionary ones (such as variants of genetic algorithms).In this Thesis we also explore a number of directions towards the construction of better neuron models --within an integrant envelope-- more adapted to the problems they are meant to solve.It is described how a certain generic class of heterogeneous models leads to a satisfactory performance, comparable, and often better, to that of classical neural models, especially in the presence of heterogeneous information, imprecise or incomplete data, in a wide range of domains, most of them corresponding to real-world problems.Postprint (published version

Numerical and Evolutionary Optimization 2020

This book was established after the 8th International Workshop on Numerical and Evolutionary Optimization (NEO), representing a collection of papers on the intersection of the two research areas covered at this workshop: numerical optimization and evolutionary search techniques. While focusing on the design of fast and reliable methods lying across these two paradigms, the resulting techniques are strongly applicable to a broad class of real-world problems, such as pattern recognition, routing, energy, lines of production, prediction, and modeling, among others. This volume is intended to serve as a useful reference for mathematicians, engineers, and computer scientists to explore current issues and solutions emerging from these mathematical and computational methods and their applications