The Effect of Randomized School Admissions on Voter Participation

There is little causal evidence on the effect of economic and policy outcomes on voting behavior. This paper uses randomized outcomes from a school choice lottery to examine if lottery outcomes affect voting behavior in a school board election. We show that losing the lottery has no significant impact on overall voting behavior; however, among white families, those with above median income and prior voting history, lottery losers were significantly more likely to vote than lottery winners. Using propensity score methods, we compare the voting of lottery participants to similar families who did not participate in the lottery. We find that losing the school choice lottery caused an increase in voter turnout among whites, while winning the lottery had no effect relative to non-participants. Overall, our empirical results lend support to models of expressive and retrospective voting, where likely voters are motivated to vote by past negative policy outcomes.

From credit crunch to credit boom: transitional challenges in Bulgarian banking, 1999-2006

New econometric evidence is provided to identify the determinants of the rapid credit growth in Bulgaria and evaluate whether the credit boom has increased bank fragility, based on a panel data analysis of 30 Bulgarian banks over the 1999-2006 period. Employing Fixed effects and GMM estimation techniques to explore the link between credit and capital base in a partial adjustment framework, the study provides evidence for the growing risks of credit expansion and assesses the potential for banking distress in Bulgaria. The paper argues that after a period of severe credit crunch during 1997-1999, foreign-owned Bulgarian banks have financed a credit boom, especially since 2003 but this indicated growing risk in lending and increasing vulnerability to a systemic banking crisis as banks reduced their capital base and registered an increase in non-performing loans. Aggressive lending by less-capitalized banks without appropriate loan loss provisioning has also been verified empirically in a number of panel specifications. While well-capitalized banks have tended to expand credit in proportion to their capital base, banks with weak capital base engaged in excessive risk taking, and expanded credit despite growing ratio of non-performing loans. Hence, the credit boom has come at the expense of increased banking fragility in Bulgaria, raising the probability of bank failure in the event of a downturn in global financial flows which became a disturbing reality in 2008.Bulgarian banking, GMM estimation, credit boom, credit crunch

Estimating the Indirect Gaming Contribution of Bingo Rooms

Using data from two repeater market hotel casinos, the relationship between bingo and slot business volumes is explored. Contrary to conjecture supplied by industry executives, the results fail to demonstrate a statistically significant relationship between daily bingo headcount and coin-in. This result was found in three different analyses, including one· attempt to estimate the impact of bingo headcount on low-denomination coin-in. This study advances the literature by challenging the assumption that bingo rooms produce substantial indirect slot profits. Given the minimal direct contribution to property cash flows, if any, the results suggest that bingo rooms are not always the highest and best use of valuable casino floor space

Macroeconomic adjustment and the labor market in four Latin American countries

Implicit in standard macroeconomics of adjustment is the assumption of well-integrated labor markets that are responsive to relative prices. But segmentation of the labor market is usually said to be an important source of labor market rigidities. In particular, if segmentation involves different degrees of real wage rigidity among different groups in the labor force, nominal devaluation may be ineffective and inequitable in its impact. This paper uses a model of labor market segmentation in which regulations are necessary to distinguish between the formal and informal sectors. Using standard econometric techniques to estimate four simultaneous equations, the authors examine the effect of devaluation on relative wages in four countries. They found that formal wages are more responsive than informal wages to inflation and that devaluation of the exchange rate, by increasing the wage gap, is a source of sluggish labor mobility. In addition, they found that expanding wage differentials during adjustment imposes a greater burden on the poorest workers, making adjustment policies less politically sustainable. Finally, they found evidence to support the hypothesis that nominal devaluation would probably be ineffective with a segmented labor market.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Labor Markets,Health Economics&Finance

The effects of contract detail and prior ties on contract change : a learning perspective

Despite the large literature on alliance contract design, we know little about how transacting parties change and amend their underlying contracts during the execution of strategic alliances. Drawing on existing research in the alliance contracting literature, we develop the empirical question of how contract detail and prior ties influence the amount, direction, and type of change in such agreements during the collaboration. We generated a sample of 115 joint ventures (JVs) by distributing a survey to JV board members or top managers and found that the amount of contract change is negatively associated with the level of detail in the initial contract but is positively associated with the number of prior ties between alliance partners. In relation to the direction of contract change, we find that the level of detail of the initial agreements negatively correlates with the likelihood of removing or weakening existing provisions and that prior collaborative experience positively correlates with the likelihood of strengthening of existing provisions or adding of new ones. We also find that prior ties affect the type of change in that JV parents prefer to change enforcement provisions more so than the coordination provisions in the contract. Our paper generates new insights on the complementarities between relational governance and transaction cost economics perspectives on alliance contracting

U.S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market; Forecasting and Structural Change

This report analyzes recent structural changes in the world cotton industry and develops a statistical model that reflects current drivers of U.S. cotton prices. Legislative changes in 2008 authorized USDA to resume publishing cotton price forecasts for the first time in nearly 80 years. Systematic problems have become apparent in the forecasting models used by USDA and elsewhere, highlighting the need for an updated review of price relationships. A structural break in the U.S. cotton industry occurred in 1999, and world cotton supply has become an important determinant of U.S. cotton prices, along with China’s trade and production policy. The model developed here forecasts changes in the U.S. upland cotton farm price based on changes in U.S. cotton supply, the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio (S/U), China’s net imports as a share of world consumption, the foreign supply of cotton, and selected farm policy parameters.forecasting, cotton, price, demand, trade, structural change, farm programs., Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Marketing, Production Economics,

Performance Measures to Assess Resiliency and Efficiency of Transit Systems

Transit agencies are interested in assessing the short-, mid-, and long-term performance of infrastructure with the objective of enhancing resiliency and efficiency. This report addresses three distinct aspects of New Jersey’s Transit System: 1) resiliency of bridge infrastructure, 2) resiliency of public transit systems, and 3) efficiency of transit systems with an emphasis on paratransit service. This project proposed a conceptual framework to assess the performance and resiliency for bridge structures in a transit network before and after disasters utilizing structural health monitoring (SHM), finite element (FE) modeling and remote sensing using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). The public transit systems in NY/NJ were analyzed based on their vulnerability, resiliency, and efficiency in recovery following a major natural disaster