An Analysis of Data Sets Used to Train and Validate Cost Prediction Systems

OBJECTIVE - the aim of this investigation is to build up a picture of the nature and type of data sets being used to develop and evaluate different software project effort prediction systems. We believe this to be important since there is a growing body of published work that seeks to assess different prediction approaches. Unfortunately, results – to date – are rather inconsistent so we are interested in the extent to which this might be explained by different data sets. METHOD - we performed an exhaustive search from 1980 onwards from three software engineering journals for research papers that used project data sets to compare cost prediction systems. RESULTS - this identified a total of 50 papers that used, one or more times, a total of 74 unique project data sets. We observed that some of the better known and publicly accessible data sets were used repeatedly making them potentially disproportionately influential. Such data sets also tend to be amongst the oldest with potential problems of obsolescence. We also note that only about 70% of all data sets are in the public domain and this can be particularly problematic when the data set description is incomplete or limited. Finally, extracting relevant information from research papers has been time consuming due to different styles of presentation and levels of contextural information. CONCLUSIONS - we believe there are two lessons to learn. First, the community needs to consider the quality and appropriateness of the data set being utilised; not all data sets are equal. Second, we need to assess the way results are presented in order to facilitate meta-analysis and whether a standard protocol would be appropriate

ALOJA: A framework for benchmarking and predictive analytics in Hadoop deployments

This article presents the ALOJA project and its analytics tools, which leverages machine learning to interpret Big Data benchmark performance data and tuning. ALOJA is part of a long-term collaboration between BSC and Microsoft to automate the characterization of cost-effectiveness on Big Data deployments, currently focusing on Hadoop. Hadoop presents a complex run-time environment, where costs and performance depend on a large number of configuration choices. The ALOJA project has created an open, vendor-neutral repository, featuring over 40,000 Hadoop job executions and their performance details. The repository is accompanied by a test-bed and tools to deploy and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different hardware configurations, parameters and Cloud services. Despite early success within ALOJA, a comprehensive study requires automation of modeling procedures to allow an analysis of large and resource-constrained search spaces. The predictive analytics extension, ALOJA-ML, provides an automated system allowing knowledge discovery by modeling environments from observed executions. The resulting models can forecast execution behaviors, predicting execution times for new configurations and hardware choices. That also enables model-based anomaly detection or efficient benchmark guidance by prioritizing executions. In addition, the community can benefit from ALOJA data-sets and framework to improve the design and deployment of Big Data applications.This project has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 639595). This work is partially supported by the Ministry of Economy of Spain under contracts TIN2012-34557 and 2014SGR1051.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Machine Learning at Microsoft with ML .NET

Machine Learning is transitioning from an art and science into a technology available to every developer. In the near future, every application on every platform will incorporate trained models to encode data-based decisions that would be impossible for developers to author. This presents a significant engineering challenge, since currently data science and modeling are largely decoupled from standard software development processes. This separation makes incorporating machine learning capabilities inside applications unnecessarily costly and difficult, and furthermore discourage developers from embracing ML in first place. In this paper we present ML .NET, a framework developed at Microsoft over the last decade in response to the challenge of making it easy to ship machine learning models in large software applications. We present its architecture, and illuminate the application demands that shaped it. Specifically, we introduce DataView, the core data abstraction of ML .NET which allows it to capture full predictive pipelines efficiently and consistently across training and inference lifecycles. We close the paper with a surprisingly favorable performance study of ML .NET compared to more recent entrants, and a discussion of some lessons learned

Electrospinning predictions using artificial neural networks

Electrospinning is a relatively simple method of producing nanofibres. Currently there is no method to predict the characteristics of electrospun fibres produced from a wide range of polymer/solvent combinations and concentrations without first measuring a number of solution properties. This paper shows how artificial neural networks can be trained to make electrospinning predictions using only commonly available prior knowledge of the polymer and solvent. Firstly, a probabilistic neural network was trained to predict the classification of three possibilities: no fibres (electrospraying); beaded fibres; and smooth fibres with > 80% correct predictions. Secondly, a generalised neural network was trained to predict fibre diameter with an average absolute percentage error of 22.3% for the validation data. These predictive tools can be used to reduce the parameter space before scoping exercises