2,021 research outputs found
Epidemic processes in complex networks
In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence
for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide
range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of
real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and
nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of
epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of
dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic
spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel
analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical
relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity
concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful
theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear.
Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists
share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar
models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and
innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the
paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results
concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally,
the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in
coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.Comment: 62 pages, 15 figures, final versio
Data based identification and prediction of nonlinear and complex dynamical systems
We thank Dr. R. Yang (formerly at ASU), Dr. R.-Q. Su (formerly at ASU), and Mr. Zhesi Shen for their contributions to a number of original papers on which this Review is partly based. This work was supported by ARO under Grant No. W911NF-14-1-0504. W.-X. Wang was also supported by NSFC under Grants No. 61573064 and No. 61074116, as well as by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, Beijing Nova Programme.Peer reviewedPostprin
Epidemic Threshold in Continuous-Time Evolving Networks
Current understanding of the critical outbreak condition on temporal networks
relies on approximations (time scale separation, discretization) that may bias
the results. We propose a theoretical framework to compute the epidemic
threshold in continuous time through the infection propagator approach. We
introduce the {\em weak commutation} condition allowing the interpretation of
annealed networks, activity-driven networks, and time scale separation into one
formalism. Our work provides a coherent connection between discrete and
continuous time representations applicable to realistic scenarios.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figure
Predicting epidemic risk from past temporal contact data
Understanding how epidemics spread in a system is a crucial step to prevent
and control outbreaks, with broad implications on the system's functioning,
health, and associated costs. This can be achieved by identifying the elements
at higher risk of infection and implementing targeted surveillance and control
measures. One important ingredient to consider is the pattern of
disease-transmission contacts among the elements, however lack of data or
delays in providing updated records may hinder its use, especially for
time-varying patterns. Here we explore to what extent it is possible to use
past temporal data of a system's pattern of contacts to predict the risk of
infection of its elements during an emerging outbreak, in absence of updated
data. We focus on two real-world temporal systems; a livestock displacements
trade network among animal holdings, and a network of sexual encounters in
high-end prostitution. We define the node's loyalty as a local measure of its
tendency to maintain contacts with the same elements over time, and uncover
important non-trivial correlations with the node's epidemic risk. We show that
a risk assessment analysis incorporating this knowledge and based on past
structural and temporal pattern properties provides accurate predictions for
both systems. Its generalizability is tested by introducing a theoretical model
for generating synthetic temporal networks. High accuracy of our predictions is
recovered across different settings, while the amount of possible predictions
is system-specific. The proposed method can provide crucial information for the
setup of targeted intervention strategies.Comment: 24 pages, 5 figures + SI (18 pages, 15 figures
Temporal Networks
A great variety of systems in nature, society and technology -- from the web
of sexual contacts to the Internet, from the nervous system to power grids --
can be modeled as graphs of vertices coupled by edges. The network structure,
describing how the graph is wired, helps us understand, predict and optimize
the behavior of dynamical systems. In many cases, however, the edges are not
continuously active. As an example, in networks of communication via email,
text messages, or phone calls, edges represent sequences of instantaneous or
practically instantaneous contacts. In some cases, edges are active for
non-negligible periods of time: e.g., the proximity patterns of inpatients at
hospitals can be represented by a graph where an edge between two individuals
is on throughout the time they are at the same ward. Like network topology, the
temporal structure of edge activations can affect dynamics of systems
interacting through the network, from disease contagion on the network of
patients to information diffusion over an e-mail network. In this review, we
present the emergent field of temporal networks, and discuss methods for
analyzing topological and temporal structure and models for elucidating their
relation to the behavior of dynamical systems. In the light of traditional
network theory, one can see this framework as moving the information of when
things happen from the dynamical system on the network, to the network itself.
Since fundamental properties, such as the transitivity of edges, do not
necessarily hold in temporal networks, many of these methods need to be quite
different from those for static networks
Epidemic Spreading with External Agents
We study epidemic spreading processes in large networks, when the spread is
assisted by a small number of external agents: infection sources with bounded
spreading power, but whose movement is unrestricted vis-\`a-vis the underlying
network topology. For networks which are `spatially constrained', we show that
the spread of infection can be significantly speeded up even by a few such
external agents infecting randomly. Moreover, for general networks, we derive
upper-bounds on the order of the spreading time achieved by certain simple
(random/greedy) external-spreading policies. Conversely, for certain common
classes of networks such as line graphs, grids and random geometric graphs, we
also derive lower bounds on the order of the spreading time over all
(potentially network-state aware and adversarial) external-spreading policies;
these adversarial lower bounds match (up to logarithmic factors) the spreading
time achieved by an external agent with a random spreading policy. This
demonstrates that random, state-oblivious infection-spreading by an external
agent is in fact order-wise optimal for spreading in such spatially constrained
networks
Robust oscillations in SIS epidemics on adaptive networks: Coarse-graining by automated moment closure
We investigate the dynamics of an epidemiological
susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on an adaptive network. This model
combines epidemic spreading (dynamics on the network) with rewiring of network
connections (topological evolution of the network). We propose and implement a
computational approach that enables us to study the dynamics of the network
directly on an emergent, coarse-grained level. The approach sidesteps the
derivation of closed low-dimensional approximations. Our investigations reveal
that global coupling, which enters through the awareness of the population to
the disease, can result in robust large-amplitude oscillations of the state and
topology of the network.Comment: revised version 6 pages, 4 figure
The noisy voter model on complex networks
We propose a new analytical method to study stochastic, binary-state models
on complex networks. Moving beyond the usual mean-field theories, this
alternative approach is based on the introduction of an annealed approximation
for uncorrelated networks, allowing to deal with the network structure as
parametric heterogeneity. As an illustration, we study the noisy voter model, a
modification of the original voter model including random changes of state. The
proposed method is able to unfold the dependence of the model not only on the
mean degree (the mean-field prediction) but also on more complex averages over
the degree distribution. In particular, we find that the degree heterogeneity
---variance of the underlying degree distribution--- has a strong influence on
the location of the critical point of a noise-induced, finite-size transition
occurring in the model, on the local ordering of the system, and on the
functional form of its temporal correlations. Finally, we show how this latter
point opens the possibility of inferring the degree heterogeneity of the
underlying network by observing only the aggregate behavior of the system as a
whole, an issue of interest for systems where only macroscopic, population
level variables can be measured.Comment: 28 pages, 9 figure
Spreading processes in Multilayer Networks
Several systems can be modeled as sets of interconnected networks or networks
with multiple types of connections, here generally called multilayer networks.
Spreading processes such as information propagation among users of an online
social networks, or the diffusion of pathogens among individuals through their
contact network, are fundamental phenomena occurring in these networks.
However, while information diffusion in single networks has received
considerable attention from various disciplines for over a decade, spreading
processes in multilayer networks is still a young research area presenting many
challenging research issues. In this paper we review the main models, results
and applications of multilayer spreading processes and discuss some promising
research directions.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures, 4 table
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