An economic and financial exploratory

This paper describes the vision of a European Exploratory for economics and finance using an interdisciplinary consortium of economists, natural scientists, computer scientists and engineers, who will combine their expertise to address the enormous challenges of the 21st century. This Academic Public facility is intended for economic modelling, investigating all aspects of risk and stability, improving financial technology, and evaluating proposed regulatory and taxation changes. The European Exploratory for economics and finance will be constituted as a network of infrastructure, observatories, data repositories, services and facilities and will foster the creation of a new cross-disciplinary research community of social scientists, complexity scientists and computing (ICT) scientists to collaborate in investigating major issues in economics and finance. It is also considered a cradle for training and collaboration with the private sector to spur spin-offs and job creations in Europe in the finance and economic sectors. The Exploratory will allow Social Scientists and Regulators as well as Policy Makers and the private sector to conduct realistic investigations with real economic, financial and social data. The Exploratory will (i) continuously monitor and evaluate the status of the economies of countries in their various components, (ii) use, extend and develop a large variety of methods including data mining, process mining, computational and artificial intelligence and every other computer and complex science techniques coupled with economic theory and econometric, and (iii) provide the framework and infrastructure to perform what-if analysis, scenario evaluations and computational, laboratory, field and web experiments to inform decision makers and help develop innovative policy, market and regulation designs. Graphical abstrac

Swarm Intelligence

Swarm Intelligence has emerged as one of the most studied artificial intelligence branches during the last decade, constituting the fastest growing stream in the bio-inspired computation community. A clear trend can be deduced analyzing some of the most renowned scientific databases available, showing that the interest aroused by this branch has increased at a notable pace in the last years. This book describes the prominent theories and recent developments of Swarm Intelligence methods, and their application in all fields covered by engineering. This book unleashes a great opportunity for researchers, lecturers, and practitioners interested in Swarm Intelligence, optimization problems, and artificial intelligence

Local movement: agent-based models of pedestrian flows

Modelling movement within the built environment has hitherto been focused on rather coarse spatial scales where the emphasis has been upon simulating flows of traffic between origins and destinations. Models of pedestrian movement have been sporadic, based largely on finding statistical relationships between volumes and the accessibility of streets, with no sustained efforts at improving such theories. The development of object-orientated computing and agent-based models which have followed in this wake, promise to change this picture radically. It is now possible to develop models simulating the geometric motion of individual agents in small-scale environments using theories of traffic flow to underpin their logic. In this paper, we outline such a model which we adapt to simulate flows of pedestrians between fixed points of entry - gateways - into complex environments such as city centres, and points of attraction based on the location of retail and leisure facilities which represent the focus of such movements. The model simulates the movement of each individual in terms of five components; these are based on motion in the direction of the most attractive locations, forward movement, the avoidance of local geometric obstacles, thresholds which constrain congestion, and movement which is influenced by those already moving towards various locations. The model has elements which enable walkers to self-organise as well as learn from their geometric experiences so far. We first outline the structure of the model, present a computable form, and illustrate how it can be programmed as a variant of cellular automata. We illustrate it using three examples: its application to an idealised mall where we show how two key components - local navigation of obstacles and movement towards points of global locational attraction - can be parameterised, an application to the more complex town centre of Wolverhampton (in the UK West Midlands) where the paths of individual walkers are used to explore the veracity of the model, and finally it application to the Tate Gallery complex in central London where the focus is on calibrating the model by letting individual agents learn from their experience of walking within the environment

RT-MOVICAB-IDS: Addressing real-time intrusion detection

This study presents a novel Hybrid Intelligent Intrusion Detection System (IDS) known as RT-MOVICAB-IDS that incorporates temporal control. One of its main goals is to facilitate real-time Intrusion Detection, as accurate and swift responses are crucial in this field, especially if automatic abortion mechanisms are running. The formulation of this hybrid IDS combines Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) within a Multi-Agent System (MAS) to detect intrusions in dynamic computer networks. Temporal restrictions are imposed on this IDS, in order to perform real/execution time processing and assure system response predictability. Therefore, a dynamic real-time multi-agent architecture for IDS is proposed in this study, allowing the addition of predictable agents (both reactive and deliberative). In particular, two of the deliberative agents deployed in this system incorporate temporal-bounded CBR. This upgraded CBR is based on an anytime approximation, which allows the adaptation of this Artificial Intelligence paradigm to real-time requirements. Experimental results using real data sets are presented which validate the performance of this novel hybrid IDSMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad (TIN2010-21272-C02-01, TIN2009-13839-C03-01), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (CIT-020000-2008-2, CIT-020000-2009-12

Towards A Novel Unified Framework for Developing Formal, Network and Validated Agent-Based Simulation Models of Complex Adaptive Systems

Literature on the modeling and simulation of complex adaptive systems (cas) has primarily advanced vertically in different scientific domains with scientists developing a variety of domain-specific approaches and applications. However, while cas researchers are inherently interested in an interdisciplinary comparison of models, to the best of our knowledge, there is currently no single unified framework for facilitating the development, comparison, communication and validation of models across different scientific domains. In this thesis, we propose first steps towards such a unified framework using a combination of agent-based and complex network-based modeling approaches and guidelines formulated in the form of a set of four levels of usage, which allow multidisciplinary researchers to adopt a suitable framework level on the basis of available data types, their research study objectives and expected outcomes, thus allowing them to better plan and conduct their respective research case studies. Firstly, the complex network modeling level of the proposed framework entails the development of appropriate complex network models for the case where interaction data of cas components is available, with the aim of detecting emergent patterns in the cas under study. The exploratory agent-based modeling level of the proposed framework allows for the development of proof-of-concept models for the cas system, primarily for purposes of exploring feasibility of further research. Descriptive agent-based modeling level of the proposed framework allows for the use of a formal step-by-step approach for developing agent-based models coupled with a quantitative complex network and pseudocode-based specification of the model, which will, in turn, facilitate interdisciplinary cas model comparison and knowledge transfer. Finally, the validated agent-based modeling level of the proposed framework is concerned with the building of in-simulation verification and validation of agent-based models using a proposed Virtual Overlay Multiagent System approach for use in a systematic team-oriented approach to developing models. The proposed framework is evaluated and validated using seven detailed case study examples selected from various scientific domains including ecology, social sciences and a range of complex adaptive communication networks. The successful case studies demonstrate the potential of the framework in appealing to multidisciplinary researchers as a methodological approach to the modeling and simulation of cas by facilitating effective communication and knowledge transfer across scientific disciplines without the requirement of extensive learning curves

The doctoral research abstracts. Vol 5: 2014 / Institute of Graduate Studies, UiTM

Foreword: The fifth issue of the Doctoral Research Abstracts features the abstracts from 29 PhD doctorates receiving their scrolls in this 80th UiTM momentous convocation ceremony. The publication captures the novelty of their research and marks UiTM’s acknowledgement and tribute to the graduands whose achievement we proudly celebrate. It also reflects IGS conscientious effort to publish these abstracts which range from the discipline of science and technology, business and management to social science and humanities. To the 29 doctorates, I would like to congratulate your achievement on this auspicious occasion. This convocation is one of the important milestones in marking the course of your accomplishment. Despite all obstacles, with the support of your families and friends, this moment reflects your deserving efforts in paving your career path. On that note, on behalf of UiTM, I wish you the very best in your future undertakings and sincerely hope that you will remember and cherish the moments that you have in UiTM. May the Almighty guides us to the straight path in our endeavour for academic excellence and grant us success in this world and hereafter. Tan Sri Dato’ Sri Prof Ir Dr Sahol Hamid Abu Bakar , FASc, PEng Vice Chancellor Universiti Teknologi MAR