Multi-agent knowledge integration mechanism using particle swarm optimization

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2011 Elsevier B.V.Unstructured group decision-making is burdened with several central difficulties: unifying the knowledge of multiple experts in an unbiased manner and computational inefficiencies. In addition, a proper means of storing such unified knowledge for later use has not yet been established. Storage difficulties stem from of the integration of the logic underlying multiple experts' decision-making processes and the structured quantification of the impact of each opinion on the final product. To address these difficulties, this paper proposes a novel approach called the multiple agent-based knowledge integration mechanism (MAKIM), in which a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is used as a knowledge representation and storage vehicle. In this approach, we use particle swarm optimization (PSO) to adjust causal relationships and causality coefficients from the perspective of global optimization. Once an optimized FCM is constructed an agent based model (ABM) is applied to the inference of the FCM to solve real world problem. The final aggregate knowledge is stored in FCM form and is used to produce proper inference results for other target problems. To test the validity of our approach, we applied MAKIM to a real-world group decision-making problem, an IT project risk assessment, and found MAKIM to be statistically robust.Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea

Applications of Negotiation Theory to Water Issues

The purpose of the paper is to review the applications of non-cooperative bargaining theory to water related issues – which fall in the category of formal models of negotiation. The ultimate aim is that to, on the one hand, identify the conditions under which agreements are likely to emerge, and their characteristics; and, on the other hand, to support policy makers in devising the “rules of the game” that could help obtain a desired result. Despite the fact that allocation of natural resources, especially of trans-boundary nature, has all the characteristics of a negotiation problem, there are not many applications of formal negotiation theory to the issue. Therefore, this paper first discusses the non-cooperative bargaining models applied to water allocation problems found in the literature. Particular attention will be given to those directly modelling the process of negotiation, although some attempts at finding strategies to maintain the efficient allocation solution will also be illustrated. In addition, this paper will focus on Negotiation Support Systems (NSS), developed to support the process of negotiation. This field of research is still relatively new, however, and NSS have not yet found much use in real life negotiation. The paper will conclude by highlighting the key remaining gaps in the literature.Negotiation theory, Water, Agreeements, Stochasticity, Stakeholders

Understanding Innovation as a Collaborative, Co-Evolutionary Process

La innovació, que ha estat durant molt de temps el resultat, a vegades heroic, de la tasca d'un emprenedor solitari, està esdevenint progressivament una tasca col·lectiva que troba una descripció més acurada quan es presenta com el resultat d'un procés complex amb múltiples actors. Aquesta tesi vol explorar aquest aspecte col·lectiu de la innovació, tot aprofundint en dues línies de recerca. Una, que utilitza el modelatge basat en agents per a la creació de model teòrics. L'altre, que es basa en l'ús de l'anàlisi qualitatiu per a esbrinar algunes de les claus d'unes organitzacions ‐els Living Labs ‐ que cerquen involucrar els usuaris en el procés d'innovació. Ara bé, malgrat presentem la innovació com un procés obert, aquesta entesa com un procés tancat sembla també tenir èxit. De fet, tant els telèfons mòbils molt simples o molt complexos, semblen seguir aquest enfocament. En quines condicions el procés d'innovació es beneficia de ser un procés obert i quan és possible obtenir millors resultats retenint el control de la totalitat del procés, és la nostra primera pregunta de recerca. D'altra banda, aquest procés de col·laboració, característic d'un enfocament obert, és considerat normalment a un nivell micro com el resultat de la interacció diàdica entre agents. Existeix però, un altre nivell, un nivell macro que ve caracteritzat per la funció d'institucions com les Escoles de Negocis, que juguen un paper important en destil·lar les millors pràctiques i crear hipòtesis a partir d'elles que si es revelen exitoses seran adoptades per la totalitat dels agents. La comprensió del funcionament d'aquest procés, del nombre de casos que cal considerar i de quan extensius han de ser, entendre fins a quin punt les empreses poden confiar en l'assessorament de les Escoles de Negoci i quan es necessari aventurar‐se en l'exploració de noves possibilitats, és també quelcom necessari per a caracteritzar la innovació com un procés col·lectiu. Malauradament, la nostra comprensió dels mecanismes col·laboratius és encara escassa. Sabem però, que la innovació ja no és quelcom exclusiu dels laboratoris d'I+D o d'organitzacions capdavanteres, sinó que els usuaris juguen no solament un paper rellevant sinó que són percebuts com a actors amb un gran potencial. Els Living Labs és una de les tentatives per proporcionar estructura i governança a la involucració dels usuaris en el procés d'innovació. En aquest aspecte, examinarem quina és la contribució d'aquests usuaris i com els Living Labs busquen capturar‐ne el seu coneixement i aplicar‐lo i quant tenen èxit en aquest procés.La innovación, que se ha presentado muchas veces como el resultado de un proceso, muchas veces heroico, de emprendedores excepcionales, se está convirtiendo de una forma progresiva en un proceso colectivo que se describe con más acierto cuando se presenta como el resultado de un proceso complejo con multitud de actores. Esta tesis, pretende explorar este aspecto colectivo del proceso de innovación, profundizando en dos líneas de investigación. Una que utiliza el modelado basado en agentes para la construcción de modelos teóricos. Otra que se basa en el análisis cualitativo para profundizar en las claves de unas organizaciones ¬los Living Labs ‐ que buscan involucrar a los usuarios en los procesos de innovación. Ahora bien, a pesar de que la innovación se presente como un proceso abierto, ésta entendida como un proceso cerrado, parece también tener éxito. De hecho, los teléfonos móviles muy simples o muy complejos, parecen seguir este enfoque. En qué condiciones el proceso de innovación se beneficia de ser un proceso abierto y cuando es posible obtener mejores resultados reteniendo el control de la totalidad del proceso, es nuestra primera pregunta de investigación. Por otro lado, este proceso de colaboración, característico de un enfoque abierto, es considerado normalmente a un nivel micro, como el resultado de la interacción diádica entre agentes. Existe pero, otro nivel, un nivel macro, caracterizado por la función de instituciones como las Escuelas de Negocios, que juegan un papel importante destilando las mejores prácticas y creando hipótesis a partir de ellas que si se revelan exitosas serán masivamente adoptadas. La comprensión del funcionamiento de este proceso, del número de casos a considerar y de su extensión, comprender hasta qué punto las empresas pueden confiar en el asesoramiento de las Escuelas de Negocios y cuando es necesario aventurarse en un proceso de exploración de nuevas posibilidades, es también algo imprescindible para caracterizar la innovación como un proceso colectivo. Desgraciadamente nuestra comprensión de los mecanismos colaborativos en la innovación es aún escasa. Sin embargo sabemos que la innovación ya no es algo exclusivo de los laboratorios de I+D o de grandes empresas, los usuarios juegan no sólo un papel relevante sino que son percibidos como actores con un alto potencial. Los Living Labs es una de las tentativas que buscan proporcionar estructura y gobierno a la involucración de los usuarios en el proceso de innovación. En este aspecto, examinaremos cuál es la contribución de los usuarios, cómo los Living Labs buscan capturar su conocimiento y aplicarlo y cuando tienen éxito en su intento.Innovation, which used to be the result of a single, sometimes heroic, entrepreneur, is progressively turning into a collaborative endeavor, better described as the result of a complex process with multiple actors. This thesis aims to explore this collaborative aspect of innovation by digging into two strands of research. One uses Agent‐Based Modeling to create theoretical models, where the other one uses qualitative analysis to devise some insights from organizations ‐Living Labs ‐that aim to involve users in innovation. In addition to understanding innovation as an open process, a closed one seems sometimes to be equally successful. In fact, very simple and very complex mobile phones seem to follow this later approach. Under what conditions innovation benefits from being open and when better results can be obtained from retaining control of the whole process is our first research question. This process of collaboration, characteristic of the open approach, is normally considered at a micro level, as a result of a dyadic interaction between agents. Nevertheless, there is a macro level characterized by institutions, such as Business Schools, that play an important role in uncovering Best Practices and building hypothesis that, if successful, will be adopted by the agents. Understanding how this process works; how many cases should be collected and how comprehensive they should be; how much companies can rely on the insights of Business Schools; and when it is necessary to engage in exploration, is also necessary when characterizing innovation as a collective process. The mechanisms of collaboration are, however, not all well‐understood. Innovation is no longer in the solely hands of R&D laboratories or even organizations, users play an increasingly significant role and are being perceived as holding vast potential. Living Labs is one attempt to provide structure and governance to user involvement in innovation. Here, we will examine what is the contribution of users, how Living Labs aim to capture relevant knowledge and apply it, and when and how this proves successful

Using Multi-Agent Simulation to Explore the Contribution of Facilitation to GSS Transition

Significant prior research has shown that facilitation is a critical part of GSS transition. This study examines an under-researched aspect of facilitation—its contributions to self-sustained GSS use among group members. Integrating insights from Adaptive Structuration Theory, experimental economics, and the Collaboration Engineering literature, we formalize interactions of group members in GSS transition as strategic interactions in a minimum-effort coordination game. The contributions of facilitation are interpreted as coordination mechanisms to help group members achieve and maintain an agreement on GSS use by reducing uncertainties in the coordination game. We implement the conjectured coordination mechanisms in a multi-agent simulator. The simulator offers insights into the separate and combined effects of common facilitation practices during the lifecycle of GSS transition. These insights can help the Collaboration Engineering community to identify and package the facilitation routines that are critical for group members to achieve self-sustained GSS use and understand how facilitation routines should be adapted to different stages of GSS transition lifecycle. Moreover, they indicate the value of the multi-agent approach in uncovering new insights and representing the issue of GSS transition with a new view

On Agent Communication in Large Groups

The problem is fundamental and natural, yet deep - to simulate the simplest possible form of communication that can occur within a large multi-agent system. It would be prohibitive to try and survey all of the research on communication in general so we must restrict our focus. We will devote our efforts to synthetic communication occurring within large groups. In particular, we would like to discover a model for communication that will serve as an abstract model, a prototype, for simulating communication within large groups of biological organisms

Establishing norms with metanorms in distributed computational systems

Norms provide a valuable mechanism for establishing coherent cooperative behaviour in decentralised systems in which there is no central authority. One of the most influential formulations of norm emergence was proposed by Axelrod (Am Political Sci Rev 80(4):1095–1111, 1986). This paper provides an empirical analysis of aspects of Axelrod’s approach, by exploring some of the key assumptions made in previous evaluations of the model. We explore the dynamics of norm emergence and the occurrence of norm collapse when applying the model over extended durations . It is this phenomenon of norm collapse that can motivate the emergence of a central authority to enforce laws and so preserve the norms, rather than relying on individuals to punish defection. Our findings identify characteristics that significantly influence norm establishment using Axelrod’s formulation, but are likely to be of importance for norm establishment more generally. Moreover, Axelrod’s model suffers from significant limitations in assuming that private strategies of individuals are available to others, and that agents are omniscient in being aware of all norm violations and punishments. Because this is an unreasonable expectation , the approach does not lend itself to modelling real-world systems such as online networks or electronic markets. In response, the paper proposes alternatives to Axelrod’s model, by replacing the evolutionary approach, enabling agents to learn, and by restricting the metapunishment of agents to cases where the original defection is observed, in order to be able to apply the model to real-world domains . This work can also help explain the formation of a “social contract” to legitimate enforcement by a central authority

SMT goes ABMS: Developing Strategic Management Theory using Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation.

For the emerging complexity theory of strategy (CTS), organizations are complex adaptive systems able to co-evolve with their dynamic environments through interaction and response, rather than purely analysis and planning. A promising approach within the CTS context, is to focus on a strategic logic of opportunity pursuit, one in which the distributed decision-makers behave audaciously despite unpredictable, unstable environments. Although there is only emergent support for it, intriguingly organizations can perform better when these decision-makers ‘throw caution to the wind’ even at their own possible expense. Since traditional research methods have had difficulty showing how this can work over time, this research adopts a complementary method, agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS), to examine this phenomenon. The simulation model developed here, CTS-SIM, is based on quite simple constructs, but it introduces a rich and novel externally driven environment and represents individual decision-makers as having autonomous perceptions but constrainable decision-making freedom. Its primary contribution is the illumination of core dynamics and causal mechanisms in the opportunity-transitioning process. During model construction the apparently simple concept of opportunity-transitioning turns out to be complex, and the apparently complex integration of exogenous and endogenous environments with all three views of opportunity pursuit in the entrepreneurship literature, turns out to be relatively simple. Simulation outcomes using NetLogo contribute to CTS by confirming the positive effects on agent performance of opportunistic transitioning among opportunities in highly dynamic environments. The simulations also reveal tensions among some of the chosen variables and tipping points in emergent behaviours, point to areas where theoretical clarity is currently lacking, provoke some interesting questions and open up useful avenues for future research and data collection using other methods and models. Guidance through numerous stylized facts, flexible methods, careful documentation and description are all intended to inspire interest and facilitate critical discussion and ongoing scientific work