141,119 research outputs found
Quantitative modelling of the humanâEarth System a new kind of science?
The five grand challenges set out for Earth System Science by the International Council for Science in 2010 require a true fusion of social science, economics and natural scienceâa fusion that has not yet been achieved. In this paper we propose that constructing quantitative models of the dynamics of the humanâEarth system can serve as a catalyst for this fusion. We confront well-known objections to modelling societal dynamics by drawing lessons from the development of natural science over the last four centuries and applying them to social and economic science. First, we pose three questions that require real integration of the three fields of science. They concern the coupling of physical planetary boundaries via social processes; the extension of the concept of planetary boundaries to the humanâEarth System; and the possibly self-defeating nature of the United Nationâs Millennium Development Goals. Second, we ask whether there are regularities or âattractorsâ in the humanâEarth System analogous to those that prompted the search for laws of nature. We nominate some candidates and discuss why we should observe them given that human actors with foresight and intentionality play a fundamental role in the humanâEarth System. We conclude that, at sufficiently large time and space scales, social processes are predictable in some sense. Third, we canvass some essential mathematical techniques that this research fusion must incorporate, and we ask what kind of data would be needed to validate or falsify our models. Finally, we briefly review the state of the art in quantitative modelling of the humanâEarth System today and highlight a gap between so-called integrated assessment models applied at regional and global scale, which could be filled by a new scale of model
Socio-hydrological modelling: a review asking âwhy, what and how?â
Interactions between humans and the environment are occurring on a scale that
has never previously been seen; the scale of human interaction with the water
cycle, along with the coupling present between social and hydrological
systems, means that decisions that impact water also impact people. Models
are often used to assist in decision-making regarding hydrological systems,
and so in order for effective decisions to be made regarding water resource
management, these interactions and feedbacks should be accounted for in
models used to analyse systems in which water and humans interact. This paper
reviews literature surrounding aspects of socio-hydrological modelling. It
begins with background information regarding the current state of
socio-hydrology as a discipline, before covering reasons for modelling and
potential applications. Some important concepts that underlie
socio-hydrological modelling efforts are then discussed, including ways of
viewing socio-hydrological systems, space and time in modelling, complexity,
data and model conceptualisation. Several modelling approaches are described,
the stages in their development detailed and their applicability to
socio-hydrological cases discussed. Gaps in research are then highlighted to
guide directions for future research. The review of literature suggests that
the nature of socio-hydrological study, being interdisciplinary, focusing on
complex interactions between human and natural systems, and dealing with long
horizons, is such that modelling will always present a challenge; it is,
however, the task of the modeller to use the wide range of tools afforded to
them to overcome these challenges as much as possible. The focus in
socio-hydrology is on understanding the humanâwater system in a holistic
sense, which differs from the problem solving focus of other water management
fields, and as such models in socio-hydrology should be developed with a view
to gaining new insight into these dynamics. There is an essential choice that
socio-hydrological modellers face in deciding between representing individual
system processes or viewing the system from a more abstracted level and
modelling it as such; using these different approaches has implications for
model development, applicability and the insight that they are capable of
giving, and so the decision regarding how to model the system requires
thorough consideration of, among other things, the nature of understanding
that is sought
From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design
As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain
"ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in
socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a
network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run
all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback
and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the
reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying
models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy
decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of
Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but
they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of
society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The
results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into
informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis
Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources,
environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected
with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make
complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and
the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c
Advances and visions in large-scale hydrological modelling: findings from the 11th Workshop on Large-Scale Hydrological Modelling
Large-scale hydrological modelling has become increasingly wide-spread during the last decade. An annual workshop series on large-scale hydrological modelling has provided, since 1997, a forum to the German-speaking community for discussing recent developments and achievements in this research area. In this paper we present the findings from the 2007 workshop which focused on advances and visions in large-scale hydrological modelling. We identify the state of the art, difficulties and research perspectives with respect to the themes "sensitivity of model results", "integrated modelling" and "coupling of processes in hydrosphere, atmosphere and biosphere". Some achievements in large-scale hydrological modelling during the last ten years are presented together with a selection of remaining challenges for the future
Land system science and sustainable development of the earth system: A global land project perspective
Land systems are the result of human interactions with the natural environment. Understanding the drivers, state, trends and impacts of different land systems on social and natural processes helps to reveal how changes in the land system affect the functioning of the socio-ecological system as a whole and the tradeoff these changes may represent. The Global Land Project has led advances by synthesizing land systems research across different scales and providing concepts to further understand the feedbacks between social-and environmental systems, between urban and rural environments and between distant world regions. Land system science has moved from a focus on observation of change and understanding the drivers of these changes to a focus on using this understanding to design sustainable transformations through stakeholder engagement and through the concept of land governance. As land use can be seen as the largest geo-engineering project in which mankind has engaged, land system science can act as a platform for integration of insights from different disciplines and for translation of knowledge into action
Taking the heterogeneity of citizens into account: flood risk communication in coastal cities â a case study of Bremen
The likely manifestations of climate change like flood hazards are prominent topics in public communication. This can be shown by media analysis and questionnaire data. However, in the case of flood risks an information gap remains resulting in misinformed citizens who probably will not perform the necessary protective actions when an emergency occurs. This paper examines more closely a newly developed approach to flood risk communication that takes the heterogeneity of citizens into account and aims to close this gap. The heterogeneity is analysed on the meso level regarding differences in residential situation as well as on the micro level with respect to risk perception and protective actions. Using the city of Bremen as a case study, empirical data from n=831 respondents were used to identify Action Types representing different states of readiness for protective actions in view of flood risks. These subpopulations can be provided with specific information to meet their heterogeneous needs for risk communication. A prototype of a computer-based information system is described that can produce and pass on such tailored information. However, such an approach to risk communication has to be complemented by meso level analysis which takes the social diversity of subpopulations into account. Social vulnerability is the crucial concept for understanding the distribution of resources and capacities among different social groups. We therefore recommend putting forums and organisations into place that can mediate between the state and its citizens
Cosmic Rays and Climate
Among the most puzzling questions in climate change is that of solar-climate
variability, which has attracted the attention of scientists for more than two
centuries. Until recently, even the existence of solar-climate variability has
been controversial - perhaps because the observations had largely involved
temporary correlations between climate and the sunspot cycle. Over the last few
years, however, diverse reconstructions of past climate change have revealed
clear associations with cosmic ray variations recorded in cosmogenic isotope
archives, providing persuasive evidence for solar or cosmic ray forcing of the
climate. However, despite the increasing evidence of its importance, solar
climate variability is likely to remain controversial until a physical
mechanism is established. Although this remains a mystery, observations suggest
that cloud cover may be influenced by cosmic rays, which are modulated by the
solar wind and, on longer time scales, by the geomagnetic field and by the
galactic environment of Earth. Two different classes of microphysical
mechanisms have been proposed to connect cosmic rays with clouds: firstly, an
influence of cosmic rays on the production of cloud condensation nuclei and,
secondly, an influence of cosmic rays on the global electrical circuit in the
atmosphere and, in turn, on ice nucleation and other cloud microphysical
processes. Considerable progress on understanding ion-aerosol-cloud processes
has been made in recent years, and the results are suggestive of a physically-
plausible link between cosmic rays, clouds and climate. However, a concerted
effort is now required to carry out definitive laboratory measurements of the
fundamental physical and chemical processes involved, and to evaluate their
climatic significance with dedicated field observations and modelling studies.Comment: 42 pages, 19 figure
- âŚ