Natural selection. II. Developmental variability and evolutionary rate

In classical evolutionary theory, genetic variation provides the source of heritable phenotypic variation on which natural selection acts. Against this classical view, several theories have emphasized that developmental variability and learning enhance nonheritable phenotypic variation, which in turn can accelerate evolutionary response. In this paper, I show how developmental variability alters evolutionary dynamics by smoothing the landscape that relates genotype to fitness. In a fitness landscape with multiple peaks and valleys, developmental variability can smooth the landscape to provide a directly increasing path of fitness to the highest peak. Developmental variability also allows initial survival of a genotype in response to novel or extreme environmental challenge, providing an opportunity for subsequent adaptation. This initial survival advantage arises from the way in which developmental variability smooths and broadens the fitness landscape. Ultimately, the synergism between developmental processes and genetic variation sets evolutionary rate

Searching for improvement

Engineering design can be thought of as a search for the best solutions to engineering problems. To perform an effective search, one must distinguish between competing designs and establish a measure of design quality, or fitness. To compare different designs, their features must be adequately described in a well-defined framework, which can mean separating the creative and analytical parts of the design process. By this we mean that a distinction is drawn between coming up with novel design concepts, or architectures, and the process of detailing or refining existing design architecture. In the case of a given design architecture, one can consider the set of all possible designs that could be created by varying its features. If it were possible to measure the fitness of all designs in this set, then one could identify a fitness landscape and search for the best possible solution for this design architecture. In this Chapter, the significance of the interactions between design features in defining the metaphorical fitness landscape is described. This highlights that the efficiency of a search algorithm is inextricably linked to the problem structure (and hence the landscape). Two approaches, namely, Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Robust Engineering Design (RED) are considered in some detail with reference to a case study on improving the design of cardiovascular stents

Treatment of input uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Doing hydrology backward with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

There is increasing consensus in the hydrologic literature that an appropriate framework for streamflow forecasting and simulation should include explicit recognition of forcing and parameter and model structural error. This paper presents a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, entitled differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM), that is especially designed to efficiently estimate the posterior probability density function of hydrologic model parameters in complex, high-dimensional sampling problems. This MCMC scheme adaptively updates the scale and orientation of the proposal distribution during sampling and maintains detailed balance and ergodicity. It is then demonstrated how DREAM can be used to analyze forcing data error during watershed model calibration using a five-parameter rainfall-runoff model with streamflow data from two different catchments. Explicit treatment of precipitation error during hydrologic model calibration not only results in prediction uncertainty bounds that are more appropriate but also significantly alters the posterior distribution of the watershed model parameters. This has significant implications for regionalization studies. The approach also provides important new ways to estimate areal average watershed precipitation, information that is of utmost importance for testing hydrologic theory, diagnosing structural errors in models, and appropriately benchmarking rainfall measurement devices

Computational Methods for Parameter Estimation in Climate Models

Intensive computational methods have been used by Earth scientists in a wide range of problems in data inversion and uncertainty quantification such as earthquake epicenter location and climate projections. To quantify the uncertainties resulting from a range of plausible model configurations it is necessary to estimate a multidimensional probability distribution. The computational cost of estimating these distributions for geoscience applications is impractical using traditional methods such as Metropolis/Gibbs algorithms as simulation costs limit the number of experiments that can be obtained reasonably. Several alternate sampling strategies have been proposed that could improve on the sampling efficiency including Multiple Very Fast Simulated Annealing (MVFSA) and Adaptive Metropolis algorithms. The performance of these proposed sampling strategies are evaluated with a surrogate climate model that is able to approximate the noise and response behavior of a realistic atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The surrogate model is fast enough that its evaluation can be embedded in these Monte Carlo algorithms. We show that adaptive methods can be superior to MVFSA to approximate the known posterior distribution with fewer forward evaluations. However the adaptive methods can also be limited by inadequate sample mixing. The Single Component and Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis algorithms were found to resolve these limitations, although challenges remain to approximating multi-modal distributions. The results show that these advanced methods of statistical inference can provide practical solutions to the climate model calibration problem and challenges in quantifying climate projection uncertainties. The computational methods would also be useful to problems outside climate prediction, particularly those where sampling is limited by availability of computational resources.National Science Foundation OCE-0415251CONACyT-Mexico 159764Institute for Geophysic

Scheduling commercial advertisements for television

The problem of scheduling the commercial advertisements in the television industry is investigated. Each advertiser client demands that the multiple airings of the same brand advertisement should be as spaced as possible over a given time period. Moreover, audience rating requests have to be taken into account in the scheduling. This is the first time this hard decision problem is dealt with in the literature. We design two mixed integer linear programming (MILP) models. Two constructive heuristics, local search procedures and simulated annealing (SA) approaches are also proposed. Extensive computational experiments, using several instances of various sizes, are performed. The results show that the proposed MILP model which represents the problem as a network flow obtains a larger number of optimal solutions and the best non-exact procedure is the one that uses SA