538 research outputs found
An Improved Deep Learning Model for Electricity Price Forecasting
Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is important for the purpose of bidding strategies and minimizing the risk for market participants in the competitive electricity market. Besides that, EPF becomes critically important for effective planning and efficient operation of a power system due to deregulation of electricity industry. However, accurate EPF is very challenging due to complex nonlinearity in the time series-based electricity prices. Hence, this work proposed two-fold contributions which are (1) effective time series preprocessing module to ensure feasible time-series data is fitted in the deep learning model, and (2) an improved long short-term memory (LSTM) model by incorporating linear scaled hyperbolic tangent (LiSHT) layer in the EPF. In this work, the time series pre-processing module adopted linear trend of the correlated features of electricity price series and the time series are tested by using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test method. In addition, the time series are transformed using boxcox transformation method in order to satisfy the stationarity property. Then, an improved LSTM prediction module is proposed to forecast electricity prices where LiSHT layer is adopted to optimize the parameters of the heterogeneous LSTM. This study is performed using the Australian electricity market price, load and renewable energy supply data. The experimental results obtained show that the proposed EPF framework performed better compared to previous techniques
Hybrid Deep Learning Architecture to Forecast Maximum Load Duration Using Time-of-Use Pricing Plans
Load forecasting has received crucial research attention to reduce peak load and contribute to the stability of power grid using machine learning or deep learning models. Especially, we need the adequate model to forecast the maximum load duration based on time-of-use, which is the electricity usage fare policy in order to achieve the goals such as peak load reduction in a power grid. However, the existing single machine learning or deep learning forecasting cannot easily avoid overfitting. Moreover, a majority of the ensemble or hybrid models do not achieve optimal results for forecasting the maximum load duration based on time-of-use. To overcome these limitations, we propose a hybrid deep learning architecture to forecast maximum load duration based on time-of-use. Experimental results indicate that this architecture could achieve the highest average of recall and accuracy (83.43%) compared to benchmarkmodels. To verify the effectiveness of the architecture, another experimental result shows that energy storage system (ESS) scheme in accordance with the forecast results of the proposed model (LSTM-MATO) in the architecture could provide peak load cost savings of 17,535,700KRWeach year comparing with original peak load costs without the method. Therefore, the proposed architecture could be utilized for practical applications such as peak load reduction in the grid
Structure Optimization of Ensemble Learning Methods and Seasonal Decomposition Approaches to Energy Price Forecasting in Latin America: A Case Study about Mexico
The energy price influences the interest in investment, which leads to economic development. An estimate of the future energy price can support the planning of industrial expansions and provide information to avoid times of recession. This paper evaluates adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), bootstrap aggregation (bagging), gradient boosting, histogram-based gradient boosting, and random forest ensemble learning models for forecasting energy prices in Latin America, especially in a case study about Mexico. Seasonal decomposition of the time series is used to reduce unrepresentative variations. The Optuna using tree-structured Parzen estimator, optimizes the structure of the ensembles through a voter by combining several ensemble frameworks; thus an optimized hybrid ensemble learning method is proposed. The results show that the proposed method has a higher performance than the state-of-the-art ensemble learning methods, with a mean squared error of 3.37E−9 in the testing phase
Transfer Learning for Electricity Price Forecasting
Electricity price forecasting is an essential task for all the deregulated
markets of the world. The accurate prediction of the day-ahead electricity
prices is an active research field and available data from various markets can
be used as an input for forecasting. A collection of models have been proposed
for this task, but the fundamental question on how to use the available big
data is often neglected. In this paper, we propose to use transfer learning as
a tool for utilizing information from other electricity price markets for
forecasting. We pre-train a bidirectional Gated Recurrent Units (BGRU) network
on source markets and finally do a fine-tuning for the target market. Moreover,
we test different ways to use the input data from various markets in the
models. Our experiments on five different day-ahead markets indicate that
transfer learning improves the performance of electricity price forecasting in
a statistically significant manner
A new framework for electricity price forecasting via multi-head self-attention and CNN-based techniques in the competitive electricity market
Due to recent technical improvements, the smart grid has become a feasible platform for electricity market participants to successfully regulate their bidding process based on demand-side management (DSM) perspectives. At this level, practical design, implementation, and assessment of numerous demand response mechanisms and robust short-term price forecasting development in day-ahead transactions are all critical. The accuracy and effectiveness of the day-ahead price forecasting process are crucial concerns in a deregulated market. In this market, the reason for low accuracy is the limitation of electricity generation compared to the electricity demand variations. Hence, this study proposes a suitable technique for forecasting electricity prices using a multi-head self-attention and Convolutional Neural networks (CNN) based approach. Further, this study develops a feature selection technique using mutual information (MI) and neural networks (NN) to choose suitable input variable subsets significantly affecting electricity price predictions simultaneously. The combination of MI and NN reduces the number of input features used in the model, thereby decreasing the computational complexity of the NN. The actual data sets from the Ontario electricity market in 2020 are acquired to verify the simulation results. Finally, the simulation results proved the efficiency of the proposed method by demonstrating increased accuracy by attaining the lowest average value for MAPE and RMSE with a value of 1.75% and 0.0085, respectively, and compared to results obtained by recent computational intelligence approaches. By attaining accurate electricity price results, the significance of this study can be summed up as aiding the electricity industry's operators in administering effective energy management, efficient resource allocation, and informed decision-making.© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed
Internet of things (IoT) based adaptive energy management system for smart homes
PhD ThesisInternet of things enhances the flexibility of measurements under different environments, the
development of advanced wireless sensors and communication networks on the smart grid
infrastructure would be essential for energy efficiency systems. It makes deployment of a
smart home concept easy and realistic. The smart home concept allows residents to control,
monitor and manage their energy consumption with minimal wastage. The scheduling of
energy usage enables forecasting techniques to be essential for smart homes. This thesis
presents a self-learning home management system based on machine learning techniques
and energy management system for smart homes.
Home energy management system, demand side management system, supply side management system, and power notification system are the major components of the proposed
self-learning home management system. The proposed system has various functions including price forecasting, price clustering, power forecasting alert, power consumption alert, and
smart energy theft system to enhance the capabilities of the self-learning home management
system. These functions were developed and implemented through the use of computational
and machine learning technologies. In order to validate the proposed system, real-time power
consumption data were collected from a Singapore smart home and a realistic experimental
case study was carried out. The case study had proven that the developed system performing
well and increased energy awareness to the residents. This proposed system also showcases its customizable ability according to different types of environments as compared to
traditional smart home models.
Forecasting systems for the electricity market generation have become one of the foremost
research topics in the power industry. It is essential to have a forecasting system that can
accurately predict electricity generation for planning and operation in the electricity market.
This thesis also proposed a novel system called multi prediction system and it is developed
based on long short term memory and gated recurrent unit models. This proposed system is
able to predict the electricity market generation with high accuracy.
Multi Prediction System is based on four stages which include a data collecting and
pre-processing module, a multi-input feature model, multi forecast model and mean absolute
percentage error. The data collecting and pre-processing module preprocess the real-time
data using a window method. Multi-input feature model uses single input feeding method,
double input feeding method and multiple feeding method for features input to the multi
forecast model. Multi forecast model integrates long short term memory and gated recurrent
unit variations such as regression model, regression with time steps model, memory between
batches model and stacked model to predict the future generation of electricity. The mean
absolute percentage error calculation was utilized to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction.
The proposed system achieved high accuracy results to demonstrate its performance
Group Method of Data Handling Using Christiano–Fitzgerald Random Walk Filter for Insulator Fault Prediction
Disruptive failures threaten the reliability of electric supply in power branches, often indicated by the rise of leakage current in distribution insulators. This paper presents a novel, hybrid method for fault prediction based on the time series of the leakage current of contaminated insulators. In a controlled high-voltage laboratory simulation, 15 kV-class insulators from an electrical power distribution network were exposed to increasing contamination in a salt chamber. The leakage current was recorded over 28 h of effective exposure, culminating in a flashover in all considered insulators. This flashover event served as the prediction mark that this paper proposes to evaluate. The proposed method applies the Christiano–Fitzgerald random walk (CFRW) filter for trend decomposition and the group data-handling (GMDH) method for time series prediction. The CFRW filter, with its versatility, proved to be more effective than the seasonal decomposition using moving averages in reducing non-linearities. The CFRW-GMDH method, with a root-mean-squared error of 3.44×10−12, outperformed both the standard GMDH and long short-term memory models in fault prediction. This superior performance suggested that the CFRW-GMDH method is a promising tool for predicting faults in power grid insulators based on leakage current data. This approach can provide power utilities with a reliable tool for monitoring insulator health and predicting failures, thereby enhancing the reliability of the power supply
An empirical study on the various stock market prediction methods
Investment in the stock market is one of the much-admired investment actions. However, prediction of the stock market has remained a hard task because of the non-linearity exhibited. The non-linearity is due to multiple affecting factors such as global economy, political situations, sector performance, economic numbers, foreign institution investment, domestic institution investment, and so on. A proper set of such representative factors must be analyzed to make an efficient prediction model. Marginal improvement of prediction accuracy can be gainful for investors. This review provides a detailed analysis of research papers presenting stock market prediction techniques. These techniques are assessed in the time series analysis and sentiment analysis section. A detailed discussion on research gaps and issues is presented. The reviewed articles are analyzed based on the use of prediction techniques, optimization algorithms, feature selection methods, datasets, toolset, evaluation matrices, and input parameters. The techniques are further investigated to analyze relations of prediction methods with feature selection algorithm, datasets, feature selection methods, and input parameters. In addition, major problems raised in the present techniques are also discussed. This survey will provide researchers with deeper insight into various aspects of current stock market prediction methods
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