160,929 research outputs found
Unbiased and Consistent Nested Sampling via Sequential Monte Carlo
We introduce a new class of sequential Monte Carlo methods called Nested
Sampling via Sequential Monte Carlo (NS-SMC), which reframes the Nested
Sampling method of Skilling (2006) in terms of sequential Monte Carlo
techniques. This new framework allows convergence results to be obtained in the
setting when Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to produce new samples. An
additional benefit is that marginal likelihood estimates are unbiased. In
contrast to NS, the analysis of NS-SMC does not require the (unrealistic)
assumption that the simulated samples be independent. As the original NS
algorithm is a special case of NS-SMC, this provides insights as to why NS
seems to produce accurate estimates despite a typical violation of its
assumptions. For applications of NS-SMC, we give advice on tuning MCMC kernels
in an automated manner via a preliminary pilot run, and present a new method
for appropriately choosing the number of MCMC repeats at each iteration.
Finally, a numerical study is conducted where the performance of NS-SMC and
temperature-annealed SMC is compared on several challenging and realistic
problems. MATLAB code for our experiments is made available at
https://github.com/LeahPrice/SMC-NS .Comment: 45 pages, some minor typographical errors fixed since last versio
Kernel-Based Just-In-Time Learning for Passing Expectation Propagation Messages
We propose an efficient nonparametric strategy for learning a message
operator in expectation propagation (EP), which takes as input the set of
incoming messages to a factor node, and produces an outgoing message as output.
This learned operator replaces the multivariate integral required in classical
EP, which may not have an analytic expression. We use kernel-based regression,
which is trained on a set of probability distributions representing the
incoming messages, and the associated outgoing messages. The kernel approach
has two main advantages: first, it is fast, as it is implemented using a novel
two-layer random feature representation of the input message distributions;
second, it has principled uncertainty estimates, and can be cheaply updated
online, meaning it can request and incorporate new training data when it
encounters inputs on which it is uncertain. In experiments, our approach is
able to solve learning problems where a single message operator is required for
multiple, substantially different data sets (logistic regression for a variety
of classification problems), where it is essential to accurately assess
uncertainty and to efficiently and robustly update the message operator.Comment: accepted to UAI 2015. Correct typos. Add more content to the
appendix. Main results unchange
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