A systematic mapping of the advancing use of machine learning techniques for predictive maintenance in the manufacturing sector

The increasing availability of data, gathered by sensors and intelligent machines, is chang-ing the way decisions are made in the manufacturing sector. In particular, based on predictive approach and facilitated by the nowadays growing capabilities of hardware, cloud-based solutions, and new learning approaches, maintenance can be scheduled—over cell engagement and resource monitoring—when required, for minimizing (or managing) unexpected equipment failures, improving uptime through less aggressive maintenance schedules, shortening unplanned downtime, reducing excess (direct and indirect) cost, reducing long-term damage to machines and processes, and improve safety plans. With access to increased levels of data (and over learning mechanisms), companies have the capability to conduct statistical tests using machine learning algorithms, in order to uncover root causes of problems previously unknown. This study analyses the maturity level and contributions of machine learning methods for predictive maintenance. An upward trend in publications for predictive maintenance using machine learning techniques was identified with the USA and China leading. A mapping study—steady set until early 2019 data—was employed as a formal and well-structured method to synthesize material and to report on pervasive areas of research. Type of equipment, sensors, and data are mapped to properly assist new researchers in positioning new research activities in the domain of smart maintenance. Hence, in this paper, we focus on data-driven methods for predictive maintenance (PdM) with a comprehensive survey on applications and methods until, for the sake of commenting on stable proposal, 2019 (early included). An equal repartition between evaluation and validation studies was identified, this being a symptom of an immature but growing research area. In addition, the type of contribution is mainly in the form of models and methodologies. Vibrational signal was marked as the most used data set for diagnosis in manufacturing machinery monitoring; furthermore, supervised learning is reported as the most used predictive approach (ensemble learning is growing fast). Neural networks, followed by random forests and support vector machines, were identified as the most applied methods encompassing 40% of publications, of which 67% related to deep neural network with long short-term memory predominance. Notwithstanding, there is no robust approach (no one reported optimal performance over different case tests) that works best for every problem. We finally conclude the research in this area is moving fast to gather a separate focused analysis over the last two years (whenever stable implementations will appear)

A method for obtaining the preventive maintenance interval in the absence of failure time data

One of the ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other polluting gases caused by ships is to improve their maintenance operations through their life cycle. The maintenance manager usually does not modify the preventive intervals that the equipment manufacturer has designed to reduce the failure. Conditions of use and maintenance often change from design conditions. In these cases, continuing using the manufacturer's preventive intervals can lead to non-optimal management situations. This article proposes a new method to calculate the preventive interval when the hours of failure of the assets are unavailable. Two scenarios were created to test the effectiveness and usefulness of this new method, one without the failure hours and the other with the failure hours corresponding to a bypass valve installed in the engine of a maritime transport surveillance vessel. In an easy and fast way, the proposed method allows the maintenance manager to calculate the preventive interval of equipment that does not have installed an instrument for measuring operating hours installed

Online failure prediction in air traffic control systems

This thesis introduces a novel approach to online failure prediction for mission critical distributed systems that has the distinctive features to be black-box, non-intrusive and online. The approach combines Complex Event Processing (CEP) and Hidden Markov Models (HMM) so as to analyze symptoms of failures that might occur in the form of anomalous conditions of performance metrics identified for such purpose. The thesis presents an architecture named CASPER, based on CEP and HMM, that relies on sniffed information from the communication network of a mission critical system, only, for predicting anomalies that can lead to software failures. An instance of Casper has been implemented, trained and tuned to monitor a real Air Traffic Control (ATC) system developed by Selex ES, a Finmeccanica Company. An extensive experimental evaluation of CASPER is presented. The obtained results show (i) a very low percentage of false positives over both normal and under stress conditions, and (ii) a sufficiently high failure prediction time that allows the system to apply appropriate recovery procedures