Biases at the Ballot Box: How Multiple Forms of Voter Discrimination Impede the Descriptive and Substantive Representation of Ethnic Minority Groups

Research shows that ethnic minority candidates often face an electoral penalty at the ballot box. In this study, we argue that this penalty depends on both candidate and voter characteristics, and that pro-minority policy positions incur a greater penalty than a candidate’s ethnic background itself. Using a conjoint experiment embedded in a panel study of British voters, we investigate the relative contributions of candidate ethnicity, policy positions, affirmative action, and voter attitudes to this electoral penalty. We find that although Pakistani (Muslim) candidates are penalized directly for their ethnicity, black Caribbean candidates receive on average the same levels of support as white British ones. However, black Caribbean candidates suffer conditional discrimination where they are penalized if they express support for pro-minority policies, and all candidates are penalized for having been selected through an affirmative action initiative. We also find that some white British voters are more inclined to support a black Caribbean candidate than a white British one, all else being equal. These voters (one quarter of our sample) have cosmopolitan views on immigration, and a strong commitment to anti-prejudice norms. However, despite efforts across parties to increase the ethnic diversity of candidates for office, many voters’ preferences continue to pose barriers toward descriptive and substantive representation of ethnic minority groups

The 2008 election: A preregistered replication analysis

We present an increasingly stringent set of replications of Ghitza & Gelman (2013), a multilevel regression and poststratification analysis of polls from the 2008 U.S. presidential election campaign, focusing on a set of plots showing the estimated Republican vote share for whites and for all voters, as a function of income level in each of the states. We start with a nearly-exact duplication that uses the posted code and changes only the model-fitting algorithm; we then replicate using already-analyzed data from 2004; and finally we set up preregistered replications using two surveys from 2008 that we had not previously looked at. We have already learned from our preliminary, non-preregistered replication, which has revealed a potential problem with the published analysis of Ghitza & Gelman (2013); it appears that our model may not sufficiently account for nonsampling error, and that some of the patterns presented in that earlier paper may simply reflect noise. In addition to the substantive interest in validating earlier findings about demographics, geography, and voting, the present project serves as a demonstration of preregistration in a setting where the subject matter is historical (and thus the replication data exist before the preregistration plan is written) and where the analysis is exploratory (and thus a replication cannot be simply deemed successful or unsuccessful based on the statistical significance of some particular comparison).Comment: This article is a review and preregistration plan. It will be published, along with a new Section 5 describing the results of the preregistered analysis, in Statistics and Public Polic

The design of field experiments with survey outcomes: A framework for selecting more efficient, robust, and ethical designs

There is increasing interest in experiments where outcomes are measured by surveys and treatments are delivered by a separate mechanism in the real world, such as by mailers, door-To-door canvasses, phone calls, or online ads. However, common designs for such experiments are often prohibitively expensive, vulnerable to bias, and raise ethical concerns. We show how four methodological practices currently uncommon in such experiments have previously undocumented complementarities that can dramatically relax these constraints when at least two are used in combination: (1)Â online surveys recruited from a defined sampling frame (2)Â with at least one baseline wave prior to treatment (3)Â with multiple items combined into an index to measure outcomes and, (4)Â when possible, a placebo control. We provide a general and extensible framework that allows researchers to determine the most efficient mix of these practices in diverse applications. Two studies then examine how these practices perform empirically. First, we examine the representativeness of online panel respondents recruited from a defined sampling frame and find that their representativeness compares favorably to phone panel respondents. Second, an original experiment successfully implements all four practices in the context of a door-To-door canvassing experiment. We conclude discussing potential extensions

(How) did attack advertisements increase affordable care act enrollments?

We examine the effects of exposure to negative information in attack advertisements in the context of Affordable Care Act (ACA) and Common Core (CC) education standards and show that they lead to an increase in the ACA enrollments and support of the CC standards. To explain this effect, we rely on the knowledge-gap theory and show that individuals who were exposed to more attack advertisements were also more likely to independently seek information, become more knowledgeable, and consequently support these subjects. In addition to an observational study, to test our hypotheses on the link between exposure to negative information, curiosity, and shifts in knowledge and support levels, we design and conduct a randomized experiment using a sample of 300 unique individuals. Our multi-methods research contributes to marketing literature by documenting a rare occasion in which exposure to attack advertisements leads to increased demand and unveiling the mechanisms through which this effect takes place

Field evidence of social influence in the expression of political preferences: the case of secessionist flags in Barcelona

Different models of social influence have explored the dynamics of social contagion, imitation, and diffusion of different types of traits, opinions, and conducts. However, few behavioral data indicating social influence dynamics have been obtained from direct observation in `natural' social contexts. The present research provides that kind of evidence in the case of the public expression of political preferences in the city of Barcelona, where thousands of citizens supporting the secession of Catalonia from Spain have placed a Catalan flag in their balconies. We present two different studies. 1) In July 2013 we registered the number of flags in 26% of the the city. We find that there is a large dispersion in the density of flags in districts with similar density of pro-independence voters. However, we find that the density of flags tends to be fostered in those electoral district where there is a clear majority of pro-independence vote, while it is inhibited in the opposite cases. 2) During 17 days around Catalonia's 2013 National Holiday we observed the position at balcony resolution of the flags displayed in the facades of 82 blocks. We compare the clustering of flags on the facades observed each day to equivalent random distributions and find that successive hangings of flags are not independent events but that a local influence mechanism is favoring their clustering. We also find that except for the National Holiday day the density of flags tends to be fostered in those facades where there is a clear majority of pro-independence vote.Comment: 27 pages, 13 figures, 2 table