The Role of Government in Anti-Social Redistributive Activities

It is known that anti-social redistributive activities (rent seeking, tax evasion, corruption, violation of property rights, delay of socially beneficial reforms, etc) hurt the macroeconomy. But it is less known what is the role of government size as a determinant of such activities. We use data from 64 counties (both developed and developing) in 5-year periods over 1980-2000. As a measure of anti-social activities, we use the ICRG index; as a measure of government size, we use the government share in GDP; and as a measure of government efficiency, we construct an index by following the methodology of Afonso, Schuknecht and Tanzi (2003). Our regressions show that what really matters to social incentives is the relation between size and efficiency. Specifically, while a larger size of government is bad for incentives when one ignores efficiency, the results change drastically when government efficiency is also taken into account. Only when our measure of size exceeds our measure of efficiency, larger public sectors are bad for incentives. By contrast, when efficiency exceeds size, larger public sectors are not bad; actually, in the case where efficiency is measured by government performance in the policy areas of administration, stabilization and infrastructure, larger public sectors significantly improve incentives.government and behaviour of agents, collective decision-making

Learning, endogenous indexation and disinflation in the New-Keynesian Model

This paper introduces adaptive learning and endogenous indexation in the New-Keynesian Phillips curve and studies disinflation under inflation targeting policies. The analysis is motivated by the disinflation performance of many inflation-targeting countries, in particular the gradual Chilean disinflation with temporary annual targets. At the start of the disinflation episode price-setting firms’ expect inflation to be highly persistent and opt for backward-looking indexation. As the central bank acts to bring inflation under control, price-setting firms revise their estimates of the degree of persistence. Such adaptive learning lowers the cost of disinflation. This reduction can be exploited by a gradual approach to disinflation. Firms that choose the rate for indexation also re-assess the likelihood that announced inflation targets determine steady-state inflation and adjust indexation of contracts accordingly. A strategy of announcing and pursuing short-term targets for inflation is found to influence the likelihood that firms switch from backward-looking indexation to the central bank’s targets. As firms abandon backward-looking indexation the costs of disinflation decline further. We show that an inflation targeting strategy that employs temporary targets can benefit from lower disinflation costs due to the reduction in backward-looking indexation

The Credibility Problem Revisited: Thirty Years on from Kydland and Prescott

Macroeconomics research has changed profoundly since the Kydland-Prescott seminal paper. In order to address the Lucas Critique, modelling now is based on microfoundations treating agents as rational utility optimizers. Bayesian estimation has produced models which are more data consistent than those based simply on calibration. With micro-foundations and new linear-quadratic techniques, normative policy based on welfare analysis is now possible. In the open economy, policy involves a ‘game’ with policymakers and private institutions or private individuals as players. This paper attempts to reassess the Kydland-Prescott contribution in the light of these developments.Monetary rules, commitment, discretion, open economy, coordination gains.

Robust Control Rules to Shield Against Indeterminacy

We address robustness of inflation targeting rules in a New Keynesian model using two approaches. Firstly we use the Hansen-Sargent method, borrowed from the control theory literature, to design robust rules on the basis of the policymaker playing a game against malign nature. This welfare-based approach is intended to deal with worst case scenarios, but does not directly address stability robustness. Furthermore, in the case of forward-looking systems, it does not address indeterminacy robustness; thus a system may have good stability properties, but a small parameter change could lead to indeterminacy. Secondly, we address this latter issue by imposing a probability distribution on problematic parameters, and investigate both the probability of instability and the probability of indeterminacy of the robust rule. For comparison, we apply the same idea to inflation forecast based rules, which have the potential to perform well provided that there is enough interest rate smoothing and that the forecast horizon is not too far aheadInflation Targeting, Indeterminicy

A Forward Looking Version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).This paper documents a forward looking multi-regional general equilibrium model developed from the latest version of the recursive-dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. The model represents full inter-temporal optimization (perfect foresight), which makes it possible to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. It was designed with the flexibility to represent different aggregations of countries and regions, different horizon lengths, as well as the ability to accommodate different assumptions about the economy, in terms of economic growth, foreign trade closure, labor leisure choice, taxes on primary factors, vintaging of capital and data calibration. The forward-looking dynamic model provides a complementary tool for policy analyses, to assess the robustness of results from the recursive EPPA model, and to illustrate important differences in results that are driven by the perfect foresight behavior. We present some applications of the model that include the reference case and its comparison with the recursive EPPA version, as well as some greenhouse gas mitigation cases where we explore economic impacts with and without inter-temporal trade of permits.This research was supported by the U.S Department of Energy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. National Science Foundation, U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration; and the Industry and Foundation Sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change: Alstom Power (USA), American Electric Power (USA), A.P. Møller-Maersk (Denmark), Cargill (USA), Chevron Corporation (USA), CONCAWE & EUROPIA (EU), DaimlerChrysler AG (USA), Duke Energy (USA), Electric Power Research Institute (USA), Electricité de France, Enel (Italy), Eni (Italy), Exelon Power (USA), ExxonMobil Corporation (USA), Ford Motor Company (USA), General Motors (USA), Iberdrola Generacion (Spain), J-Power (Japan), Merril Lynch (USA), Murphy Oil Corporation (USA), Norway Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, Oglethorpe Power Corporation (USA), RWE Power (Germany), Schlumberger (USA),Shell Petroleum (Netherlands/UK), Southern Company (USA), StatoilHydro (Norway), Tennessee Valley Authority (USA), Tokyo Electric Power Company (Japan), Total (France), G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation (USA)

Timeless Perspective Policymaking: When is Discretion Superior?

In this paper I show that discretionary policymaking can be superior to timeless perspective policymaking and identify model features that make this outcome more likely. Developing a measure of conditional loss that treats the auxiliary state variables that characterize the timeless perspective equilibrium appropriately, I use a New Keynesian DSGE model to show that discretion can dominate timeless perspective policymaking when the Phillips curve is relatively flat, due, perhaps, to firm-specific capital (or labor) and/or Kimball (1995) aggregation in combination with nominal price rigidity. These results suggest that studies applying the timeless perspective might also usefully compare its performance to discretion, paying careful attention to how policy performance is evaluated.Discretion, timeless perspective, policy evaluation.

Control of space stations

A study is made to develop controllers for the NASA-JSC Triangular Space Station and evaluate their performances to make recommendations for structural design and/or control alternatives. The control system design assumes the rigid body of the Space Station and developes the lumped parameter control system by using the Inverse Optimal Control Theory. In order to evaluate the performance of the control system, a Parameter Estimation algorithm is being developed which will be used in modeling an equivalent but simpler Space Station model. Finally, a scaled version of the Space Station is being built for the purpose of physical experiments to evaluate the control system performance

Inflation Targeting and the Role of Real Objectives

In this paper, I focus on two aspects of central banking – flexibility and transparency – that have been affected by monetary policy debates over the past twenty years. Because criticism of inflation targeting, at least in the United States, often focuses on the claim that an inflation targeting central bank may ignore real economic fluctuations, I direct my comments to the role real objectives play in the design of optimal monetary policy. That is, I focus on how flexible the central bank should be. I argue that, while the recent trend in the academic literature to view central bank objectives as derived from the welfare of the representative agent can be insightful, this perspective is not the only one for thinking about the goals assigned to the central bank. There are reasons why the objectives of a central bank should, potentially, deviate from social welfare, and I will focus on two such reasons; one related to imperfect monitoring and accountability, the other arising from asymmetric information.Central Banks, Monetary Policy, Inflation Targeting.

Learning, Endogenous Indexation and Disinflation in the New-Keynesian Model

This paper introduces adaptive learning and endogenous indexation in the New-Keynesian Phillips curve and studies disinflation under inflation targeting policies. The analysis is motivated by the disinflation performance of many inflation-targeting countries, in particular the gradual Chilean disinflation with temporary annual targets. At the start of the disinflation episode price-setting firms’ expect inflation to be highly persistent and opt for backward-looking indexation. As the central bank acts to bring inflation under control, price-setting firms revise their estimates of the degree of persistence. Such adaptive learning lowers the cost of disinflation. This reduction can be exploited by a gradual approach to disinflation. Firms that choose the rate for indexation also re-assess the likelihood that announced inflation targets determine steady-state inflation and adjust indexation of contracts accordingly. A strategy of announcing and pursuing short-term targets for inflation is found to influence the likelihood that firms switch from backward-looking indexation to the central bank’s targets. As firms abandon backward-looking indexation the costs of disinflation decline further. We show that an inflation targeting strategy that employs temporary targets can benefit from lower disinflation costs due to the reduction in backward-looking indexation.Learning, Monetary Policy, New-Keynesian Model, Indexation, Inflation Targeting, Disinflation, Recursive Least Squares

Robust Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules to Shield against Indeterminacy

This paper provides a first attempt to quantify and at the same time utilize estimated measures of uncertainty for the design of robust interest rate rules. We estimate several variants of a linearized form of a New Keynesian model using quarterly US data. Both our theoretical and numerical results indicate that Inflation-Forecast-Based (IFB) rules are increasingly prone to the problem of indeterminacy as the forward horizon increases. As a consequence the stabilization performance of optimized rules of this type worsens too. Robust IFB rules can be designed to avoid indeterminacy in an uncertain environment, but at an increasing utility loss as rules become more forward-looking.robustness, Taylor rules, inflation-forecast-based rules, indeterminacy