11,460 research outputs found
Parametric Regression on the Grassmannian
We address the problem of fitting parametric curves on the Grassmann manifold
for the purpose of intrinsic parametric regression. As customary in the
literature, we start from the energy minimization formulation of linear
least-squares in Euclidean spaces and generalize this concept to general
nonflat Riemannian manifolds, following an optimal-control point of view. We
then specialize this idea to the Grassmann manifold and demonstrate that it
yields a simple, extensible and easy-to-implement solution to the parametric
regression problem. In fact, it allows us to extend the basic geodesic model to
(1) a time-warped variant and (2) cubic splines. We demonstrate the utility of
the proposed solution on different vision problems, such as shape regression as
a function of age, traffic-speed estimation and crowd-counting from
surveillance video clips. Most notably, these problems can be conveniently
solved within the same framework without any specifically-tailored steps along
the processing pipeline.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figure
Most Likely Transformations
We propose and study properties of maximum likelihood estimators in the class
of conditional transformation models. Based on a suitable explicit
parameterisation of the unconditional or conditional transformation function,
we establish a cascade of increasingly complex transformation models that can
be estimated, compared and analysed in the maximum likelihood framework. Models
for the unconditional or conditional distribution function of any univariate
response variable can be set-up and estimated in the same theoretical and
computational framework simply by choosing an appropriate transformation
function and parameterisation thereof. The ability to evaluate the distribution
function directly allows us to estimate models based on the exact likelihood,
especially in the presence of random censoring or truncation. For discrete and
continuous responses, we establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed
estimators. A reference software implementation of maximum likelihood-based
estimation for conditional transformation models allowing the same flexibility
as the theory developed here was employed to illustrate the wide range of
possible applications.Comment: Accepted for publication by the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
2017-06-1
Change-Point Testing and Estimation for Risk Measures in Time Series
We investigate methods of change-point testing and confidence interval
construction for nonparametric estimators of expected shortfall and related
risk measures in weakly dependent time series. A key aspect of our work is the
ability to detect general multiple structural changes in the tails of time
series marginal distributions. Unlike extant approaches for detecting tail
structural changes using quantities such as tail index, our approach does not
require parametric modeling of the tail and detects more general changes in the
tail. Additionally, our methods are based on the recently introduced
self-normalization technique for time series, allowing for statistical analysis
without the issues of consistent standard error estimation. The theoretical
foundation for our methods are functional central limit theorems, which we
develop under weak assumptions. An empirical study of S&P 500 returns and US
30-Year Treasury bonds illustrates the practical use of our methods in
detecting and quantifying market instability via the tails of financial time
series during times of financial crisis
A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear and time varying time series models
Many structural break and regime-switching models have been used with macroeconomic and ā¦nancial data. In this paper, we develop an extremely flexible parametric model which can accommodate virtually any of these speciā¦cations and does so in a simple way which allows for straightforward Bayesian inference. The basic idea underlying our model is that it adds two simple concepts to a standard state space framework. These ideas are ordering and distance. By ordering the data in various ways, we can accommodate a wide variety of nonlinear time series models, including those with regime-switching and structural breaks. By allowing the state equation variances to depend on the distance between observations, the parameters can evolve in a wide variety of ways, allowing for everything from models exhibiting abrupt change (e.g. threshold autoregressive models or standard structural break models) to those which allow for a gradual evolution of parameters (e.g. smooth transition autoregressive models or time varying parameter models). We show how our model will (approximately) nest virtually every popular model in the regime-switching and structural break literatures. Bayesian econometric methods for inference in this model are developed. Because we stay within a state space framework, these methods are relatively straightforward, drawing on the existing literature. We use artiā¦cial data to show the advantages of our approach, before providing two empirical illustrations involving the modeling of real GDP growth
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