The Development of the Use of Expert Testimony

The steadily increasing performance of modern computer systems is having a large influence on simulation technologies. It enables increasingly detailed simulations of larger and more comprehensive simulation models. Increasingly large amounts of numerical data are produced by these simulations. This thesis presents several contributions in the field of mechanical system simulation and visualisation. The work described in the thesis is of practical relevance and results have been tested and implemented in tools that are used daily in the industry i.e., the BEAST (BEAring Simulation Tool) tool box. BEAST is a multibody system (MBS) simulation software with special focus on detailed contact calculations. Our work is primarily focusing on these types of systems. focusing on these types of systems. Research in the field of simulation modelling typically focuses on one or several specific topics around the modelling and simulation work process. The work presented here is novel in the sense that it provides a complete analysis and tool chain for the whole work process for simulation modelling and analysis of multibody systems with detailed contact models. The focus is on detecting and dealing with possible problems and bottlenecks in the work process, with respect to multibody systems with detailed contact models. The following primary research questions have been formulated: How to utilise object-oriented techniques for modelling of multibody systems with special reference tocontact modelling? How to integrate visualisation with the modelling and simulation process of multibody systems withdetailed contacts. How to reuse and combine existing simulation models to simulate large mechanical systems consistingof several sub-systems by means of co-simulation modelling? Unique in this work is the focus on detailed contact models. Most modelling approaches for multibody systems focus on modelling of bodies and boundary conditions of such bodies, e.g., springs, dampers, and possibly simple contacts. Here an object oriented modelling approach for multibody simulation and modelling is presented that, in comparison to common approaches, puts emphasis on integrated contact modelling and visualisation. The visualisation techniques are commonly used to verify the system model visually and to analyse simulation results. Data visualisation covers a broad spectrum within research and development. The focus is often on detailed solutions covering a fraction of the whole visualisation process. The novel visualisation aspect of the work presented here is that it presents techniques covering the entire visualisation process integrated with modeling and simulation. This includes a novel data structure for efficient storage and visualisation of multidimensional transient surface related data from detailed contact calculations. Different mechanical system simulation models typically focus on different parts (sub-systems) of a system. To fully understand a complete mechanical system it is often necessary to investigate several or all parts simultaneously. One solution for a more complete system analysis is to couple different simulation models into one coherent simulation. Part of this work is concerned with such co-simulation modelling. Co-simulation modelling typically focuses on data handling, connection modelling, and numerical stability. This work puts all emphasis on ease of use, i.e., making mechanical system co-simulation modelling applicable for a larger group of people. A novel meta-model based approach for mechanical system co-simulation modelling is presented. The meta-modelling process has been defined and tools and techniques been created to fully support the complete process. A component integrator and modelling environment are presented that support automated interface detection, interface alignment with automated three-dimensional coordinate translations, and three dimensional visual co-simulation modelling. The integrated simulator is based on a general framework for mechanical system co-simulations that guarantees numerical stability

Towards a decision-support procedure to foster stakeholder involvement and acceptability of urban freight transport policies

Purpose: This paper addresses the complex problem of multi-stakeholder decisions in urban freight transport policy-making from a public authority perspective, by proposing a procedure based on a modelling approach to support stakeholder involvement in the decision-making process. The paper analyses the existing methods that can be used for participatory decision-support, with the intent of contextualizing and introducing the innovative modelling approach. Methods: The modelling approach consists of a well-thought integration of discrete choice models (DCM) with agent-based models (ABM) as an effective way to account for stakeholders’ opinions in the policy-making process, while mimicking their interaction to find a shared policy package. The integrated modelling approach is able to combine the advantages of the two methods while overcoming their respective weaknesses. Since it is well grounded on sound microeconomic theory, it provides a detailed (static) stakeholders’ behavioural knowledge, but it is also capable of reproducing agents’ (dynamic) interaction during the decision-making process. The integration allows performing an ex-ante behavioural analysis, with the aim of testing the potential acceptability of the solutions proposed. The methodology is applied in a real case study to prove its feasibility and usefulness for participatory decision-making. Results: The integrated modelling approach can be used for participatory decision-support and it can be casted in the overall UFT policy-making process. The results of the behavioural analysis, in terms of ranking of potentially accepted policies, linked with the technical evaluations from transport network modelling tools, provide a sound basis for active participation and deliberation with stakeholders and policy-makers. The aim is to guide an effective participation process aimed at consensus building among stakeholders, by proposing them a subset of policies that, as a result of a preliminary analysis, are likely to be accepted while performing well in terms of technical results. Conclusions: This approach, integrating DCM and ABM, represents a promising way to tackle the complexity of multi-stakeholder involvement in UFT policy-making and to support an efficient and effective decision-making process. It produces an added value for UFT policy-making and it can be framed in the overall context of transport planning. In fact, together with technical and economic analyses, the stakeholder behavioural analysis proposed contributes to the ex-ante policy assessment needed to support decision-makers in taking well-thought decisions. Keywords: stakeholder behavioural analysis, discrete choice models, agent-based models, city logistics, participatory policy-makingpublishedVersio

An Integrated Assessment approach to linking biophysical modelling and economic valuation tools

Natural resource management (NRM) typically involves complex decisions that affect a variety of stakeholder values. Efficient NRM, which achieves the greatest net environmental, social and financial benefits, needs to integrate the assessment of environmental impacts with the costs and benefits of investment. Integrated assessment (IA) is one approach that incorporates the several dimensions of catchment NRM, by considering multiple issues and knowledge from various disciplines and stakeholders. Despite the need for IA, there are few studies that integrate biophysical modelling tools with economic valuation. In this paper, we demonstrate how economic non-market valuation tools can be used to support an IA of catchment NRM changes. We develop a Bayesian Network model that integrates: a process-based water quality model; ecological assessments of native riparian vegetation; estimates of management costs; and non-market (intangible) values of changes in riparian vegetation. This modelling approach illustrates how information from different sources can be integrated in one framework to evaluate the environmental and economic impacts of NRM actions. It also shows the uncertainties associated with the estimated welfare effects. By estimating the marginal social costs and benefits, a cost-benefit analysis of alternative management intervention can be gained and provides more economic rationality to NRM decisions.Bayesian networks, bio-economic modelling, catchment management, cost-benefit analysis, environmental values, integrated assessment and modelling, non-market valuation, riparian vegetation, Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Challenges in the harmonisation of global integrated assessment models: a comprehensive methodology to reduce model response heterogeneity

Harmonisation sets the ground to a solid inter-comparison of integrated assessment models. A clear and transparent harmonisation process promotes a consistent interpretation of the modelling outcomes divergences and, reducing the model variance, is instrumental to the use of integrated assessment models to support policy decision-making. Despite its crucial role for climate economic policies, the definition of a comprehensive harmonisation methodology for integrated assessment modelling remains an open challenge for the scientific community. This paper proposes a framework for a harmonisation methodology with the definition of indispensable steps and recommendations to overcome stumbling blocks in order to reduce the variance of the outcomes which depends on controllable modelling assumptions. The harmonisation approach of the PARIS REINFORCE project is presented here to layout such a framework. A decomposition analysis of the harmonisation process is shown through 6 integrated assessment models (GCAM, ICES-XPS, MUSE, E3ME, GEMINI-E3, and TIAM). Results prove the potentials of the proposed framework to reduce the model variance and present a powerful diagnostic tool to feedback on the quality of the harmonisation itself

Semantic-based decision support for remote care of dementia patients

This paper investigates the challenges in developing a semantic-based Dementia Care Decision Support System based on the non-intrusive monitoring of the patient's behaviour. Semantic-based approaches are well suited for modelling context-aware scenarios similar to Dementia care systems, where the patient's dynamic behaviour observations (occupants movement, equipment use) need to be analysed against the semantic knowledge about the patient's condition (illness history, medical advice, known symptoms) in an integrated knowledgebase. However, our research findings establish that the ability of semantic technologies to reason upon the complex interrelated events emanating from the behaviour monitoring sensors to infer knowledge assisting medical advice represents a major challenge. We attempt to address this problem by introducing a new approach that relies on propositional calculus modelling to segregate complex events that are amenable for semantic reasoning from events that require pre-processing outside the semantic engine before they can be reasoned upon. The event pre-processing activity also controls the timing of triggering the reasoning process in order to further improve the efficiency of the inference process. Using regression analysis, we evaluate the response-time as the number of monitored patients increases and conclude that the incurred overhead on the response time of the prototype decision support systems remains tolerable

Enhanced integrated modelling approach to reconfiguring manufacturing enterprises

Dynamism and uncertainty are real challenges for present day manufacturing enterprises (MEs). Reasons include: an increasing demand for customisation, reduced time to market, shortened product life cycles and globalisation. MEs can reduce competitive pressure by becoming reconfigurable and change-capable. However, modern manufacturing philosophies, including agile and lean, must complement the application of reconfigurable manufacturing paradigms. Choosing and applying the best philosophies and techniques is very difficult as most MEs deploy complex and unique configurations of processes and resource systems, and seek economies of scope and scale in respect of changing and distinctive product flows. It follows that systematic methods of achieving model driven reconfiguration and interoperation of component based manufacturing systems are required to design, engineer and change future MEs. This thesis, titled Enhanced Integrated Modelling Approach to Reconfiguring Manufacturing Enterprises , introduces the development and prototyping a model-driven environment for the design, engineering, optimisation and control of the reconfiguration of MEs with an embedded capability to handle various types of change. The thesis describes a novel systematic approach, namely enhanced integrated modelling approach (EIMA), in which coherent sets of integrated models are created that facilitates the engineering of MEs especially their production planning and control (PPC) systems. The developed environment supports the engineering of common types of strategic, tactical and operational processes found in many MEs. The EIMA is centred on the ISO standardised CIMOSA process modelling approach. Early study led to the development of simulation models during which various CIMOSA shortcomings were observed, especially in its support for aspects of ME dynamism. A need was raised to structure and create semantically enriched models hence forming an enhanced integrated modelling environment. The thesis also presents three industrial case examples: (1) Ford Motor Company; (2) Bradgate Furniture Manufacturing Company; and (3) ACM Bearings Company. In order to understand the system prior to realisation of any PPC strategy, multiple process segments of any target organisation need to be modelled. Coherent multi-perspective case study models are presented that have facilitated process reengineering and associated resource system configuration. Such models have a capability to enable PPC decision making processes in support of the reconfiguration of MEs. During these case studies, capabilities of a number of software tools were exploited such as Arena®, Simul8®, Plant Simulation®, MS Visio®, and MS Excel®. Case study results demonstrated effectiveness of the concepts related to the EIMA. The research has resulted in new contributions to knowledge in terms of new understandings, concepts and methods in following ways: (1) a structured model driven integrated approach to the design, optimisation and control of future reconfiguration of MEs. The EIMA is an enriched and generic process modelling approach with capability to represent both static and dynamic aspects of an ME; and (2) example application cases showing benefits in terms of reduction in lead time, cost and resource load and in terms of improved responsiveness of processes and resource systems with a special focus on PPC; (3) identification and industrial application of a new key performance indicator (KPI) known as P3C the measuring and monitoring of which can aid in enhancing reconfigurability and responsiveness of MEs; and (4) an enriched modelling concept framework (E-MUNE) to capture requirements of static and dynamic aspects of MEs where the conceptual framework has the capability to be extended and modified according to the requirements. The thesis outlines key areas outlining a need for future research into integrated modelling approaches, interoperation and updating mechanisms of partial models in support of the reconfiguration of MEs

Participatory Modelling and Decision Support for Natural Resources Management in Climate Change Research

The ever greater role given to public participation by laws and regulations, in particular in the field of environmental management calls for new operational methods and tools for managers and practitioners. This paper analyses the potentials and the critical limitations of current approaches in the fields of simulation modelling (SM), public participation (PP) and decision analysis (DA), for natural resources management within the context of climate change research. The potential synergies of combining SM, PP and DA into an integrated methodological framework are identified and a methodological proposal is presented, called NetSyMoD (Network Analysis – Creative System Modelling – Decision Support), which aims at facilitating the involvement of stakeholders or experts in policy - or decision-making processes (P/DMP). A generic P/DMP is formalised in NetSyMoD as a sequence of six main phases: (i) Actors analysis; (ii) Problem analysis; (iii) Creative System Modelling; (iv) DSS design; (v) Analysis of Options; and (vi) Action taking and monitoring. Several variants of the NetSyMoD approach have been adapted to different contexts such as integrated water resources management and coastal management, and, recently it has been applied in climate change research projects. Experience has shown that NetSyMoD may be a useful framework for skilled professionals, for guiding the P/DMP, and providing practical solutions to problems encountered in the different phases of the decision/policy making process, in particular when future scenarios or projections have to be considered, such as in the case of developing and selecting adaptation policies. The various applications of NetSyMoD share the same approach for problem analysis and communication within the group of selected actors, based upon the use of creative thinking techniques, the formalisation of human-environment relationships through the DPSIR framework, and the use of multi-criteria analysis through a Decision Support System (DSS) software.Modelling, Public Participation, Natural Resource Management, Policy, Decision-Making, Governance, DSS

USE OF E-PARTICIPATION TOOLS FOR SUPPORT OF POLICY MODELLING AT REGIONAL LEVEL

This paper describes application-specific and technology specifications related to ICT-based approach for the support of policy modelling as proposed in the EU funded FP7 ICT OCOPOMO project. In this particular approach strategic planning is supported by a combination of narrative scenarios, agent-based modelling, and e-Participation tools (all integrated via an ICT e-Governance platform). The policy model for a given domain is created iteratively using cooperation of several stakeholder groups (decision makers, analysts, companies, civic society, and the general public). In this paper we will provide principles and key concepts of collaborative policy modelling, but the main focus is on the discussion of high-level architecture of ICT tools and software components, envisioned platform functionality and preliminary view of detailed architecture and technological details for implementation and integration of software components. An overall approach is presented also from the view of a particular pilot application, built around development of a strategy of renewable energy use. The process of development of a new strategy is described using standard BPMN. The process models correspond to AS-IS and TO-BE (i.e. after incorporation of scenario generation and policy modelling) situations

Through life costing in defence electronic systems: an integrated data-driven multi-level approach

Cost estimating is a business process that is critical to the defence sector, where many products have low volumes and long life cycles. The nature of a defence system is often unique (for example, a naval platform) which consists of a number of sub-systems and components. For the design of such a system cost estimating is a critical task, in particular the requirement to predict the cost throughout the systems lifetime. The aim of this paper therefore is to discuss an integrated approach that provides a general framework for through life costing in defence systems via the development of: (1) a generic data library to support designers and cost estimators, (2) data searching and transfer mechanisms to support a top-down and bottom-up hybrid cost modelling approach, (3) capturing reliability data to support product services. The paper is divided into several sections, first, a review of relevant research projects concerning integration and data capture for cost modelling. This is followed by a section, which highlights problems of performing cost estimates for low volume products, and subsequently the proposed solution, methods of cost estimation and example applications. Perhaps most importantly, the methods created in this research are able to enhance decision-making and accelerate the responsiveness of the business bidding process