A fast GIS-based risk assessment for tephra fallout: the example of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador-Part II: vulnerability and risk assessment

In order to develop efficient strategies for risk mitigation and emergency management, planners require the assessment of both the expected hazard (frequency and magnitude) and the vulnerability of exposed elements. This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to produce qualitative to semi-qualitative thematic risk assessments for tephra fallout around explosive volcanoes, designed to operate with datasets of variable precision and resolution depending on data availability. Due to the constant increase in population density around volcanoes and to the wide dispersal of tephra from volcanic plumes, a large range of threats, such as roof collapses, damage to crops, blockage of vital lifelines and health problems, concern even remote communities. To address these issues, we have assessed the vulnerability and the risk levels for five themes relevant to tephra fallout: (1) social, (2) economic, (3) environmental, (4) physical and (5) territorial. Risk and vulnerability indices for each theme are averaged to the fourth level of administrative unit (parroquia, parish). In a companion paper, Biass and Bonadonna (this volume) present a probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador) using the advection-diffusion model TEPHRA2, which is based on field investigations and a global eruption database (Global Volcanism Program, GVP). The scope of this paper is to present a new approach to risk assessment specifically designed for tephra fallout, based on a comprehensive hazard assessment of Cotopaxi volcano. Our results show that an eruption of moderate magnitude (i.e. VEI 4) would result in the possible collapse of ∼9,000 houses in the two parishes located close to the volcano. Our study also reveals a high risk on agriculture, closely linked to the economic sector, and a possible accessibility problem in case of an eruption of any size, as tephra is likely to affect the only major road running from Quito to Latacunga (Panamerican Highway). As a result, this method fits into the ongoing effort to better characterize and evaluate volcanic risk, and more specifically the risk associated with tephra fallout. Although this methodology relies on some assumptions, it can serve as a rapid and efficient starting point for further investigations of the risk level around explosive volcanoe

Mapping of risk web-platforms and risk data: collection of good practices

A successful DRR results from the combination of top-down, strategies, with bottom-up, methodological approaches. The top–down approach refers more to administrative directives, organizations, and operational skills linked with the management of the risk and reflects more the policy component. The bottom-up approach is linked to the analyse of the causal factors of disasters, including exposure to hazards, vulnerability, coping capacity, and reflects more the practice component. In the context of disaster science, policy and practice are often disconnected. This is evident in the dominant top-down DRM strategies utilizing global actions on one hand and the context specific nature of the bottom-up approach based on local action and knowledge. A way to bridge the gap between practice and policy is to develop a spatial data infrastructure of the type of GIS web-platforms based on risk mapping. It is a way of linking data information and decision support system (DSS) on a common ground that becomes a “battlefield of knowledge and actions”. This report presents the results of an overview of the risk web-platforms and related risk data used in risk assessment at the level of EU-28. It allows the discovery of the current advancement for risk web infrastructures and capabilities in order to establish a pool of good practices and detection of needs. The outcome of the overview shows the needs in risk web platform developments and tries to recommend capacities that should be prioritized in order to strengthen the link between risk data information and decision support system (DSS). The assessment is based on web search and outcome of diverse disaster risk workshops and conference.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF CRITICAL OIL AND GAS INFRASTRUCTURES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE NIGER DELTA

Oil and gas infrastructures are being severely impacted by extreme climate change-induced disasters such as flood, storm, tidal surges, and rising temperature in the Niger Delta with high. There is a high potential for disruption of upstream and downstream activities as the world climate continues to change. The lack of knowledge of the criticality and vulnerability of infrastructures could further exacerbate impacts and the assets management value chain. This thesis, therefore, applied a criteria-based systematic evaluation of the criticality and vulnerability of selected critical oil and gas infrastructure to climate change impacts in the Niger Delta. It applied multi-criteria decision-making analysis (MCDA) tool – analytic hierarchy process (AHP), in prioritising systems according to their vulnerability and criticality and recommended sustainable adaptation mechanisms. Through a critical review of relevant literature, seven (7) criteria each for criticality and vulnerability assessment were synthesised accordingly and implemented in the assessment process. A further exploratory investigation, physical examination of infrastructures, focus groups and elite interviews were conducted to identify possible vulnerable infrastructures and scope qualitative and quantitative data for analysis using Mi-AHP spreadsheet. Results prioritised the criticality of infrastructures in the following order: terminals (27.1%), flow stations (18.5%), roads/bridges (15.5%), and transformers/high voltage cables (11.1%) while the least critical are loading bays (8.6%) and oil wellheads (5.1%). Further analysis indicated that the most vulnerable critical infrastructures are: pipelines (25%), terminals (17%) and roads/bridges (14%) while transformers/high voltage cables and oil wellheads where ranked as least vulnerable with 11% and 9% respectively. In addition to vulnerability assessment, an extended documentary analysis of groundwater geospatial stream flow and water discharge rate monitoring models suggest that an in-situ rise in groundwater level and increase in water discharge rate (WDR) at the upper Niger River could indicate a high probability of flood event at the lower Delta, hence further exacerbates the vulnerability of critical infrastructures. Accordingly, physical examination of infrastructures suggests that an increase in regional and ambient temperature disrupts the functionality of compressors and optimal operation of Flow Stations and inevitably exacerbate corrosion of cathodic systems when mixed with the saltwater flood from the Atlantic. The thesis produced a flexible conceptual framework for the vulnerability assessment of critical oil/gas infrastructures, contextualised and recommended sustainable climate adaptation strategies for the Niger Delta oil/gas industry. Some of these strategies include installation of industrial groundwater and water discharge rate monitoring systems, construction of elevated platforms for critical infrastructures installations, substitution of cathodic pipes with duplex stainless and glass reinforcement epoxy pipes. Others include proper channelisation of drainages and river systems around critical platforms, use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for flood monitoring and the establishment of inter-organisational climate impact assessment groups in the oil/gas industry. Climate impact assessment (CIA) is suggested for oil and gas projects as part of best practice in the environmental management and impact assessment framework

Flash Flood Susceptibility Evaluation in Human-Affected Areas Using Geomorphological Methods—The Case of 9 August 2020, Euboea, Greece. A GIS-Based Approach.

Flash floods occur almost exclusively in small basins, and they are common in small Mediterranean catchments. They pose one of the most common natural disasters, as well as one of the most devastating. Such was the case of the recent flood in Euboea island, in Greece, in August 2020. A field survey was accomplished after the 2020 flash floods in order to record the main impacts of the event and identify the geomorphological and man-made causes. The flash flood susceptibility in the urbanized alluvial fans was further assessed using a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based approach. Our findings suggest that a large portion of the alluvial fans of Politika, Poros and Mantania streams are mainly characterized by high and very high hazard. In fact, ~27% of the alluvial fans of Politika and Poros streams are characterized with very high susceptibility, and ~54% of Psachna area. GIS results have been confirmed by field observations after the 2020 flash flood, with significant damages noted, such as debris flows and infrastructure damages, in buildings, bridges and the road networks. In addition, even though the adopted approach may be more time-consuming in comparison to purely computational methods, it has the potential of being more accurate as it combines field observations and the effect of past flooding events

Environmental monitoring: landslide assessment and risk management (Test site: Vernazza, Cinque Terre Natural Park)

Natural disasters, whether of meteorological origin such as cyclones, floods, tornadoes and droughts or having geological nature such as earthquakes, volcanoes and landslide, are well known for their devastating impacts on human life, economy and environment. Over recent decades, the people and the societies are becoming more vulnerable; although the frequency of natural events may be constant, human activities contribute to their increased intensity. Indeed, every year millions of people are affected by natural disasters globally and, only in the last decade, more than 80% of all disaster-related deaths were caused by natural hazards. The PhD work is part of the activities for the support and development of methodologies useful to improve the management of environmental emergencies. In particular, it focused on the analysis of environmental monitoring and disaster risk management, a systematic approach to identify, to assess and to reduce the potential risks produced by a disaster. This method (Disaster Risk Management) aims to reduce socio-economic vulnerabilities and deals with natural and man-made events. In the PhD thesis, in particular, the slope movements have been evaluated. Slope failures are generally not so costly as earthquakes or major floods, but they are more widespread, and over the years may cause more property loss than any other geological hazard. In many developing regions slope failures constitute a continuing and serious impact on the social and economic structure. Specifically, the Italian territory has always been subject to instability phenomena, because of the geological and morphological characteristic and because of "extreme" weather events that are repeated more frequently than in the past, in relation to climate change. Currently these disasters lead to the largest number of victims and damages to settlements, infrastructure and historical and cultural environmental, after the earthquakes. The urban development, especially in recent decades, resulted in an increase of the assets at risk and unstable areas, often due to constant human intervention badly designed that led to instability also places previously considered "safe". Prevention is therefore essential to minimize the damages caused by landslides The objectives of the conducted research were to investigate the different techniques and to check their potentiality, in order to evaluate the most appropriate instrument for landslide hazard assessment in terms of better compromise between time to perform the analysis and expected results. The attempt is to evaluate which are the best methodologies to use according to the scenario, taking into consideration both reachable accuracies and time constraints. Careful considerations will be performed on strengths, weaknesses and limitations inherent to each methodology. The characteristics associated with geographic, or geospatial, information technologies facilitate the integration of scientific, social and economic data, opening up interesting possibilities for monitoring, assessment and change detection activities, thus enabling better informed interventions in human and natural systems. This is an important factor for the success of emergency operations and for developing valuable natural disaster preparedness, mitigation and prevention systems. The test site was the municipality of Vernazza, which in October 2011 was subject to a extreme rainfall which led to the occurrence of a series of landslides along the Vernazzola stream, which have emphasized the flood event that affected the water cours

Training of Crisis Mappers and Map Production from Multi-sensor Data: Vernazza Case Study (Cinque Terre National Park, Italy)

This aim of paper is to presents the development of a multidisciplinary project carried out by the cooperation between Politecnico di Torino and ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action). The goal of the project was the training in geospatial data acquiring and processing for students attending Architecture and Engineering Courses, in order to start up a team of "volunteer mappers". Indeed, the project is aimed to document the environmental and built heritage subject to disaster; the purpose is to improve the capabilities of the actors involved in the activities connected in geospatial data collection, integration and sharing. The proposed area for testing the training activities is the Cinque Terre National Park, registered in the World Heritage List since 1997. The area was affected by flood on the 25th of October 2011. According to other international experiences, the group is expected to be active after emergencies in order to upgrade maps, using data acquired by typical geomatic methods and techniques such as terrestrial and aerial Lidar, close-range and aerial photogrammetry, topographic and GNSS instruments etc.; or by non conventional systems and instruments such us UAV, mobile mapping etc. The ultimate goal is to implement a WebGIS platform to share all the data collected with local authorities and the Civil Protectio