A Corridor Level GIS-Based Decision Support Model to Evaluate Truck Diversion Strategies

Increased urbanization, population growth, and economic development within the U.S. have led to an increased demand for freight travel to meet the needs of individuals and businesses. Consequently, freight transportation has grown significantly over time and has expanded beyond the capacity of infrastructure, which has caused new challenges in many regions. To maintain quality of life and enhance public safety, more effort must be dedicated to investigating and planning in the area of traffic management and to assessing the impact of trucks on highway systems. Traffic diversion is an effective strategy to reduce the impact of incident-induced congestion, but alternative routes for truck traffic must be carefully selected based on a route\u27s restrictions on the size and weight of commercial vehicles, route\u27s operational characteristics, and safety considerations. This study presents a diversion decision methodology that integrates the network analyst tool package of the ArcGIS platform with regression analysis to determine optimal alternative routes for trucks under nonrecurrent delay conditions. When an incident occurs on a limited-access road, the diversion algorithm can be initiated. The algorithm is embedded with an incident clearance prediction model that estimates travel time on the current route based on a number of factors including incident severity; capacity reduction; number of lanes closed; type of incident; traffic characteristics; temporal characteristics; responders; and reporting, response, and clearance times. If travel time is expected to increase because of the event, a truck alternative route selection module is activated. This module evaluates available routes for diversion based on predefined criteria including roadway characteristics (number of lanes and lane width), heavy vehicle restrictions (vertical clearance, bridge efficiency ranking, bridge design load, and span limitations), traffic conditions (level of service and speed limit), and neighborhood impact (proximity to schools and hospitals and the intensity of commercial and residential development). If any available alternative routes reduce travel time, the trucks are provided with a diversion strategy. The proposed decision-making tool can assist transportation planners in making truck diversion decisions based on observed conditions. The results of a simulation and a feasibility analysis indicate that the tool can improve the safety and efficiency of the overall traffic network

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationData-driven analytics has been successfully utilized in many experience-oriented areas, such as education, business, and medicine. With the profusion of traffic-related data from Internet of Things and development of data mining techniques, data-driven analytics is becoming increasingly popular in the transportation industry. The objective of this research is to explore the application of data-driven analytics in transportation research to improve the traffic management and operations. Three problems in the respective areas of transportation planning, traffic operation, and maintenance management have been addressed in this research, including exploring the impact of dynamic ridesharing system in a multimodal network, quantifying non-recurrent congestion impact on freeway corridors, and developing infrastructure sampling method for efficient maintenance activities. First, the impact of dynamic ridesharing in a multimodal network is studied with agent-based modeling. The competing mechanism between dynamic ridesharing system and public transit is analyzed. The model simulates the interaction between travelers and the environment and emulates travelers' decision making process with the presence of competing modes. The model is applicable to networks with varying demographics. Second, a systematic approach is proposed to quantify Incident-Induced Delay on freeway corridors. There are two particular highlights in the study of non-recurrent congestion quantification: secondary incident identification and K-Nearest Neighbor pattern matching. The proposed methodology is easily transferable to any traffic operation system that has access to sensor data at a corridor level. Lastly, a high-dimensional clustering-based stratified sampling method is developed for infrastructure sampling. The stratification process consists of two components: current condition estimation and high-dimensional cluster analysis. High-dimensional cluster analysis employs Locality-Sensitive Hashing algorithm and spectral sampling. The proposed method is a potentially useful tool for agencies to effectively conduct infrastructure inspection and can be easily adopted for choosing samples containing multiple features. These three examples showcase the application of data-driven analytics in transportation research, which can potentially transform the traffic management mindset into a model of data-driven, sensing, and smart urban systems. The analytic

Developing Sampling Strategies and Predicting Freeway Travel Time Using Bluetooth Data

Accurate, reliable, and timely travel time is critical to monitor transportation system performance and assist motorists with trip-making decisions. Travel time is estimated using the data from various sources like cellular technology, automatic vehicle identification (AVI) systems. Irrespective of sources, data have characteristics in terms of accuracy and reliability shaped by the sampling rate along with other factors. As a probe based AVI technology, Bluetooth data is not immune to the sampling issue that directly affects the accuracy and reliability of the information it provides. The sampling rate can be affected by the stochastic nature of traffic state varying by time of day. A single outlier may sharply affect the travel time. This study brings attention to several crucial issues - intervals with no sample, minimum sample size and stochastic property of travel time, that play pivotal role on the accuracy and reliability of information along with its time coverage. It also demonstrates noble approaches and thus, represents a guideline for researchers and practitioner to select an appropriate interval for sample accumulation flexibly by set up the threshold guided by the nature of individual researches’ problems and preferences. After selection of an appropriate interval for sample accumulation, the next step is to estimate travel time. Travel time can be estimated either based on arrival time or based on departure time of corresponding vehicle. Considering the estimation procedure, these two are defined as arrival time based travel time (ATT) and departure time based travel time (DTT) respectively. A simple data processing algorithm, which processed more than a hundred million records reliably and efficiently, was introduced to ensure accurate estimation of travel time. Since outlier filtering plays a pivotal role in estimation accuracy, a simplified technique has proposed to filter outliers after examining several well-established outlier-filtering algorithms. In general, time of arrival is utilized to estimate overall travel time; however, travel time based on departure time (DTT) is more accurate and thus, DTT should be treated as true travel time. Accurate prediction is an integral component of calculating DTT, as real-time DTT is not available. The performances of Kalman filter (KF) were compared to corresponding modeling techniques; both link and corridor based, and concluded that the KF method offers superior prediction accuracy in link-based model. This research also examined the effect of different noise assumptions and found that the steady noise computed from full-dataset leads to the most accurate prediction. Travel time prediction had a 4.53% mean absolute percentage of error due to the effective application of KF

Understanding Factors Affecting Arterial Reliability Performance Metrics

In recent years, the importance of travel time reliability has become equally important as average travel time. However, the majority focus of travel time research is average travel time or travel time reliability on freeways. In addition, the identification of specific factors (i.e., peak hours, nighttime hours, etc.) and their effects on average travel time and travel time variability are often unknown. The current study addresses these two issues through a travel time-based study on urban arterials. Using travel times collected via Bluetooth data, a series of analyses are conducted to understand factors affecting reliability metrics on urban arterials. Analyses include outlier detection, a detailed descriptive analysis of select corridors, median travel time analysis, assessment of travel time reliability metrics recommended by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), and a bivariate Tobit model. Results show that day of the week, time of day, and holidays have varying effects on average travel time, travel time reliability, and travel time variability. Results also show that evening peak hours have the greatest effects in regards to increasing travel time, nighttime hours have the greatest effects in regards to decreasing travel time, and directionality plays a vital role in all travel time-related metrics

Estimation and Prediction of Mobility and Reliability Measures Using Different Modeling Techniques

The goal of this study is to investigate the predictive ability of less data intensive but widely accepted methods to estimate mobility and reliability measures. Mobility is a relatively mature concept in the traffic engineering field. Therefore, many mobility measure estimation methods are already available and widely accepted among practitioners and researchers. However, each method has their inherent weakness, particularly when they are applied and compared with real-world data. For instances, Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) Curves are very popular in static route choice assignment, as part of demand forecasting models, but it is often criticized for underperforming in congested traffic conditions where demand exceeds capacity. This study applied five mobility estimation methods (BPR Curve, Akcelic Function, Florida State University (FSU) Regression Model, Queuing Theory, and Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) Facility Procedures) for different facility types (i.e. Freeway and Arterial) and time periods (AM Peak, Mid-Day, PM Peak). The study findings indicate that the methods were able to accurately predict mobility measures (e.g. speed and travel time) on freeways, particularly when there was no congestion and the volume was less than the capacity. In the presence of congestion, none of the mobility estimation methods predicted mobility measures closer to the real-world measure. However, compared with the other prediction models, the HCM procedure method was able to predict mobility measures better. On arterials, the mobility measure predictions were not close to the real-world measurements, not even in the uncongested periods (i.e. AM Peak and Mid-Day). However, the predictions are relatively better in the AM and Mid-Day periods that have lower volume/capacity ration compared to the PM Peak period. To estimate reliability measures, the study applied three products from the Second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP2) projects (Project Number L03, L07, and C11) to estimate three reliability measures; the 80th percentile travel time index, 90th percentile travel time index, and 95th percentile travel time index. A major distinction between mobility estimation process and reliability estimation process lies in the fact that mobility can be estimated for any particular day, but reliability estimation requires a full year of data. Inclusion of incident days and weather condition are another important consideration for reliability measurements. The study found that SHRP2 products predicted reliability measures reasonably well for freeways for all time periods (except C11 in the PM Peak). On arterials, the reliability predictions were not close to the real-world measure, although the differences were not as drastic as seen in the case of arterial mobility measures

Integrated Approach for Diversion Route Performance Management during Incidents

Non-recurrent congestion is one of the critical sources of congestion on the highway. In particular, traffic incidents create congestion in unexpected times and places that travelers do not prepare for. During incidents on freeways, route diversion has been proven to be a useful tactic to mitigate non-recurrent congestion. However, the capacity constraints created by the signals on the alternative routes put limits on the diversion process since the typical time-of-day signal control cannot handle the sudden increase in the traffic on the arterials due to diversion. Thus, there is a need for proactive strategies for the management of the diversion routes performance and for coordinated freeway and arterial (CFA) operation during incidents on the freeway. Proactive strategies provide better opportunities for both the agency and the traveler to make and implement decisions to improve performance. This dissertation develops a methodology for the performance management of diversion routes through integrating freeway and arterials operation during incidents on the freeway. The methodology includes the identification of potential diversion routes for freeway incidents and the generation and implementation of special signal plans under different incident and traffic conditions. The study utilizes machine learning, data analytics, multi-resolution modeling, and multi-objective optimization for this purpose. A data analytic approach based on the long short term memory (LSTM) deep neural network method is used to predict the utilized alternative routes dynamically using incident attributes and traffic status on the freeway and travel time on both the freeway and alternative routes during the incident. Then, a combination of clustering analysis, multi- resolution modeling (MRM), and multi-objective optimization techniques are used to develop and activate special signal plans on the identified alternative routes. The developed methods use data from different sources, including connected vehicle (CV) data and high- resolution controller (HRC) data for congestion patterns identification at the critical intersections on the alternative routes and signal plans generation. The results indicate that implementing signal timing plans to better accommodate the diverted traffic can improve the performance of the diverted traffic without significantly deteriorating other movements\u27 performance at the intersection. The findings show the importance of using data from emerging sources in developing plans to improve the performance of the diversion routes and ensure CFA operation with higher effectiveness

DYNAMIC FREEWAY TRAVEL TIME PREDICTION USING SINGLE LOOP DETECTOR AND INCIDENT DATA

The accurate estimation of travel time is valuable for a variety of transportation applications such as freeway performance evaluation and real-time traveler information. Given the extensive availability of traffic data collected by intelligent transportation systems, a variety of travel time estimation methods have been developed. Despite limited success under light traffic conditions, traditional corridor travel time prediction methods have suffered various drawbacks. First, most of these methods are developed based on data generated by dual-loop detectors that contain average spot speeds. However, single-loop detectors (and other devices that emulate its operation) are the most commonly used devices in traffic monitoring systems. There has not been a reliable methodology for travel time prediction based on data generated by such devices due to the lack of speed measurements. Moreover, the majority of existing studies focus on travel time estimation. Secondly, the effect of traffic progression along the freeway has not been considered in the travel time prediction process. Moreover, the impact of incidents on travel time estimates has not been effectively accounted for in existing studies.The objective of this dissertation is to develop a methodology for dynamic travel time prediction based on continuous data generated by single-loop detectors (and similar devices) and incident reports generated by the traffic monitoring system. This method involves multiple-step-ahead prediction for flow rate and occupancy in real time. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model is developed with an embedded adaptive predictor. This predictor adjusts the prediction error based on traffic data that becomes available every five minutes at each station. The impact of incidents is evaluated based on estimates of incident duration and the queue incurred.Tests and comparative analyses show that this method is able to capture the real-time characteristics of the traffic and provide more accurate travel time estimates particularly when incidents occur. The sensitivities of the models to the variations of the flow and occupancy data are analyzed and future research has been identified.The potential of this methodology in dealing with less than perfect data sources has been demonstrated. This provides good opportunity for the wide application of the proposed method since single-loop type detectors are most extensively installed in various intelligent transportation system deployments

Evaluating Mobility and Safety Benefits of Freeway Service Patrols: A Case Study of Florida\u27s Road Rangers

The Florida’s Road Rangers monitor the freeways for incidents to minimize their adverse impacts on traffic. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the extent to which Road Rangers reduce incident clearance duration (ICD), incident-induced traffic delays (IITDs) and secondary crashes (SCs). Since ICD distributions are often right-skewed, the study applied quantile regression to relate ICD to influencing factors. Data skewed to the right is usually a result of lower bounds in a data set being extremely low relative to the rest of the data. Data from 28,000 incidents that occurred on freeways in Jacksonville, Florida were analyzed. Of the factors analyzed, crash events, incident severity, shoulder blockage, peak hours, weekends, nighttime, number of responding agencies, and towing were found to associate with significantly longer ICDs. Road Rangers were found to reduce incident clearance duration by 25.3%. In other words, shorter incident clearance durations were observed when Road Rangers responded to incidents compared to other agencies. On the second objective, IITDs were estimated by establishing incident-free recurrent travel time profiles as bases from which the incident-induced delays could be measured. To determine the extent to which Florida’s Road Rangers can reduce IITDs, the analysis was based on the data from 4,045 incidents that occurred on freeways in Jacksonville, Florida. The parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) survival model, with Weibull distribution of IITD was used to model IITDs. The results show that significant variables affecting IITDs include incident characteristics (severity, type, towing requirements, lane and shoulder blockage, etc.), Road Rangers involvement, and prevailing traffic conditions. The findings also revealed no significant effects of median width, average detector occupancy and the day-of-the-week on IITDs. A significant and unique contribution of this paper is that the Road Rangers program was found to shorten IITDs relative to other responding agencies by 12.6%. To identify the potential impact of Road Rangers in lowering the likelihood of SCs, this study sought to evaluate the safety performance of the Road Rangers program. Since SCs are often rare, the study applied a complimentary log-log model. The analysis was based on incident data related to 6,088 incidents on freeways in Jacksonville, Florida. Of the factors analyzed, traffic volume, incident impact duration, moderate/severe crashes, weekdays, peak periods, percentage of lane closure, and shoulder blockage were found to significantly increase the likelihood of SCs. While vehicle speed and lighting condition showed little contribution (not significant at 95%) to SC likelihood, Road Rangers were associated with relatively lower probabilities of SC occurrence. Based on the reduction in the average incident duration, the results suggest that the Road Rangers reduce SC risk by 20.9%. Based on increased safety at incident scenes, Road Rangers reduce SC probability by 17.9%. The results of this study can, in general, provide researchers and practitioners with an effective way for evaluating mobility and safety benefits of the Road Rangers program. The developed approaches provide practical guidance on how to quantify the mobility and safety impact of the Road Rangers program. The results can, in general, help practitioners to improve incident management plans