4,631 research outputs found
Stochastic Model for Power Grid Dynamics
We introduce a stochastic model that describes the quasi-static dynamics of
an electric transmission network under perturbations introduced by random load
fluctuations, random removing of system components from service, random repair
times for the failed components, and random response times to implement optimal
system corrections for removing line overloads in a damaged or stressed
transmission network. We use a linear approximation to the network flow
equations and apply linear programming techniques that optimize the dispatching
of generators and loads in order to eliminate the network overloads associated
with a damaged system. We also provide a simple model for the operator's
response to various contingency events that is not always optimal due to either
failure of the state estimation system or due to the incorrect subjective
assessment of the severity associated with these events. This further allows us
to use a game theoretic framework for casting the optimization of the
operator's response into the choice of the optimal strategy which minimizes the
operating cost. We use a simple strategy space which is the degree of tolerance
to line overloads and which is an automatic control (optimization) parameter
that can be adjusted to trade off automatic load shed without propagating
cascades versus reduced load shed and an increased risk of propagating
cascades. The tolerance parameter is chosen to describes a smooth transition
from a risk averse to a risk taken strategy...Comment: framework for a system-level analysis of the power grid from the
viewpoint of complex network
MATCASC: A tool to analyse cascading line outages in power grids
Blackouts in power grids typically result from cascading failures. The key
importance of the electric power grid to society encourages further research
into sustaining power system reliability and developing new methods to manage
the risks of cascading blackouts. Adequate software tools are required to
better analyze, understand, and assess the consequences of the cascading
failures. This paper presents MATCASC, an open source MATLAB based tool to
analyse cascading failures in power grids. Cascading effects due to line
overload outages are considered. The applicability of the MATCASC tool is
demonstrated by assessing the robustness of IEEE test systems and real-world
power grids with respect to cascading failures
Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions
We analyze a 19-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts. Contrary to previously reported results we find a fatter than exponential decay in the distribution of inter- occurrence times and evidence of seasonal dependence in the number of events. Our findings question the use of self-organized criticality, and in particular the sandpile model, as a paradigm of blackout dynamics in power transmission systems. Hopefully, though, they will provide guidelines to more accurate models for evaluation of blackout risk.blackout, risk, fat-tailed distribution, power grid
Estimating the Propagation of Interdependent Cascading Outages with Multi-Type Branching Processes
In this paper, the multi-type branching process is applied to describe the
statistics and interdependencies of line outages, the load shed, and isolated
buses. The offspring mean matrix of the multi-type branching process is
estimated by the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm and can quantify the
extent of outage propagation. The joint distribution of two types of outages is
estimated by the multi-type branching process via the Lagrange-Good inversion.
The proposed model is tested with data generated by the AC OPA cascading
simulations on the IEEE 118-bus system. The largest eigenvalues of the
offspring mean matrix indicate that the system is closer to criticality when
considering the interdependence of different types of outages. Compared with
empirically estimating the joint distribution of the total outages, good
estimate is obtained by using the multitype branching process with a much
smaller number of cascades, thus greatly improving the efficiency. It is shown
that the multitype branching process can effectively predict the distribution
of the load shed and isolated buses and their conditional largest possible
total outages even when there are no data of them.Comment: Accepted by IEEE Transactions on Power System
Modelling interdependencies between the electricity and information infrastructures
The aim of this paper is to provide qualitative models characterizing
interdependencies related failures of two critical infrastructures: the
electricity infrastructure and the associated information infrastructure. The
interdependencies of these two infrastructures are increasing due to a growing
connection of the power grid networks to the global information infrastructure,
as a consequence of market deregulation and opening. These interdependencies
increase the risk of failures. We focus on cascading, escalating and
common-cause failures, which correspond to the main causes of failures due to
interdependencies. We address failures in the electricity infrastructure, in
combination with accidental failures in the information infrastructure, then we
show briefly how malicious attacks in the information infrastructure can be
addressed
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