489 research outputs found
Smart Grid Enabling Low Carbon Future Power Systems Towards Prosumers Era
In efforts to meet the targets of carbon emissions reduction in power systems, policy makers formulate measures for facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources and demand side carbon mitigation. Smart grid provides an opportunity for bidirectional communication among policy makers, generators and consumers. With the help of smart meters, increasing number of consumers is able to produce, store, and consume energy, giving them the new role of prosumers. This thesis aims to address how smart grid enables prosumers to be appropriately integrated into energy markets for decarbonising power systems.
This thesis firstly proposes a Stackelberg game-theoretic model for dynamic negotiation of policy measures and determining optimal power profiles of generators and consumers in day-ahead market. Simulation results show that the proposed model is capable of saving electricity bills, reducing carbon emissions, and increasing the penetration of renewable energy sources. Secondly, a data-driven prosumer-centric energy scheduling tool is developed by using learning approaches to reduce computational complexity from model-based optimisation. This scheduling tool exploits convolutional neural networks to extract prosumption patterns, and uses scenarios to analyse possible variations of uncertainties caused by the intermittency of renewable energy sources and flexible demand. Case studies confirm that the proposed scheduling tool can accurately predict optimal scheduling decisions under various system scales and uncertain scenarios. Thirdly, a blockchain-based peer-to-peer trading framework is designed to trade energy and carbon allowance. The bidding/selling prices of individual prosumers can directly incentivise the reshaping of prosumption behaviours. Case studies demonstrate the execution of smart contract on the Ethereum blockchain and testify that the proposed trading framework outperforms the centralised trading and aggregator-based trading in terms of regional energy balance and reducing carbon emissions caused by long-distance transmissions
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Nature inspired computational intelligence for financial contagion modelling
This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.Financial contagion refers to a scenario in which small shocks, which initially affect only a few financial institutions or a particular region of the economy, spread to the rest of the financial sector and other countries whose economies were previously healthy. This resembles the âtransmissionâ of a medical disease. Financial contagion happens both at domestic level and international level. At domestic level, usually the failure of a domestic bank or financial intermediary triggers transmission by defaulting on inter-bank liabilities, selling assets in a fire sale, and undermining confidence in similar banks. An example of this phenomenon is the failure of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent turmoil in the US financial markets. International financial contagion happens in both advanced economies and developing economies, and is the transmission of financial crises across financial markets. Within the current globalise financial system, with large volumes of cash flow and cross-regional operations of large banks and hedge funds, financial contagion usually happens simultaneously among both domestic institutions and across countries. There is no conclusive definition of financial contagion, most research papers study contagion by analyzing the change in the variance-covariance matrix during the period of market turmoil. King and Wadhwani (1990) first test the correlations between the US, UK and Japan, during the US stock market crash of 1987. Boyer (1997) finds significant increases in correlation during financial crises, and reinforces a definition of financial contagion as a correlation changing during the crash period. Forbes and Rigobon (2002) give a definition of financial contagion. In their work, the term interdependence is used as the alternative to contagion. They claim that for the period they study, there is no contagion but only interdependence. Interdependence leads to common price movements during periods both of stability and turmoil. In the past two decades, many studies (e.g. Kaminsky et at., 1998; Kaminsky 1999) have developed early warning systems focused on the origins of financial crises rather than on financial contagion. Further authors (e.g. Forbes and Rigobon, 2002; Caporale et al, 2005), on the other hand, have focused on studying contagion or interdependence. In this thesis, an overall mechanism is proposed that simulates characteristics of propagating crisis through contagion. Within that scope, a new co-evolutionary market model is developed, where some of the technical traders change their behaviour during crisis to transform into herd traders making their decisions based on market sentiment rather than underlying strategies or factors. The thesis focuses on the transformation of market interdependence into contagion and on the contagion effects. The author first build a multi-national platform to allow different type of players to trade implementing their own rules and considering information from the domestic and a foreign market. Tradersâ strategies and the performance of the simulated domestic market are trained using historical prices on both markets, and optimizing artificial marketâs parameters through immune - particle swarm optimization techniques (I-PSO). The author also introduces a mechanism contributing to the transformation of technical into herd traders. A generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity - copula (GARCH-copula) is further applied to calculate the tail dependence between the affected market and the origin of the crisis, and that parameter is used in the fitness function for selecting the best solutions within the evolving population of possible model parameters, and therefore in the optimization criteria for contagion simulation. The overall model is also applied in predictive mode, where the author optimize in the pre-crisis period using data from the domestic market and the crisis-origin foreign market, and predict in the crisis period using data from the foreign market and predicting the affected domestic market
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