Latin America 2060: consolidation or crisis?

This repository item contains a single issue of the Pardee Center Task Force Reports, a publication series that began publishing in 2009 by the Boston University Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future.Latin America has produced vigorous ideas throughout its history, expressed in narratives about its struggles and successes, or its weaknesses and failures. Together, these have shaped a multi-faceted vision of the region and its peoples. Some of its expositors, finding the story to be neither complete nor precise, work toward reformulations, some quite radical. Such generation of knowledge in different fields seems destined to yield a variety of distinct outcomes, at least in part because some of the emerging social and cultural movements are not yet very well structured. This Task Force Report project seeks to harness ideas about the region’s future into a coherent and policy useful discourse. A Workshop and a Task Force meeting was held at Boston University on November 18-19, 2010. A select group of invited experts – a mix of academic scholars and practitioners – were asked to turn their ideas into short ‘Think Pieces’ essays. Each Think Piece focuses on a specific topical issue for the region as a whole, instead of looking only at particular countries. These Think Piece essays are compiled and edited by the Task Force coordinator and published by the Pardee Center as a Task Force Report

Summit of the Americas: The IDB Agenda to Support the Mandates of the Summits of Quebec and Nuevo León: Activities and Strategic Programs

During the Hemispheric Summit that took place in Quebec, Canada, in April 2001, the Inter-American Development Bank presented a set of 22 strategic programs intended to contribute to meeting the mandates that stem from the Summits of the Americas and the commitments that are part of the Plan of Action adopted in Quebec. Since then, the IDB has carried out intensive and complex financial and technical activities in the context of those 22 strategic programs. The programs fall into five areas that summarize the mandates adopted by the Heads of State and Government of the Americas, namely: democratic governance and political development; integration and economic development; ecology and sustainable development; equity and human development; and connectivity and technological development. During the Special Summit in Monterrey, Nuevo León, Mexico (January 2004), the IDB presented a report summarizing achievements made since 2001 with respect to the programs presented in Quebec. In addition, the Declaration of Nuevo León establishes new mandates.Research & Development, Economic Development & Growth, Democracy, Governance, Mar del Plata Summit, November 2005, SOC2005-15

An Approach to Optimize the Management of Information Security in Public Organizations of Ecuador

The problems of information security in public organizations in Ecuador are evident, which, as a result, have led to corruptions that are present at all levels of operational, tactical and strategic management. The objective of this chapter is to analyze the available information found in different media, written, spoken, among others. The deductive method was used for the collection of information and observation techniques. It turned out the improve in the administrative processes, prototype diagram of sequence of access of users and services, prototype of integration of technologies of security of the information for public organizations of Ecuador. It was concluded that to avoid corruption in a country change should happen at all levels: the way of thinking and culture of the inhabitants, laws, penalties to politicians without parliamentary immunity, application of information and communications technologies (ICT) in an appropriate manner, and complying with international standards in information security. To improve information security, administrative policies on information security must be changed, and technologies related to immutable security algorithms, Ledger, Hyperledger, etc., must be used

Veto Players, Fickle Institutions and Low-Quality Policies: The Policymaking Process in Ecuador

This paper seeks to understand why political actors, institutions and legal reforms have systematically failed to produce cooperation in the Ecuadorian policymaking process. From a comparative and historical standpoint, Ecuador has been trapped in a cycle of low-quality public policies that fail to adjust to environmental conditions, that fluctuate according to political whims and that tend to favor well-organized lobbies rather than pursuing optimal social outcomes. The paper identifies two alternative policymaking paths leading to poor policy outcomes. In the first one, the executive agenda is eclipsed by the short-term clientelistic demands of multiple veto players in the legislature, thus contributing to policy deadlock or rigidity. In the second, executive power is delegated to a decisive, often technical bureaucracy isolated from political pressures, but the lack of institutional stability of such bodies leads to a pattern of policy volatility. Lastly, the paper discusses the formal and informal roles of "last-ditch" veto players to stall or revert unwanted policies. The paper also features two case studies on fiscal and monetary policies, and derives empirical implications to improve the formation of durable intertemporal agreements in the legislature and ensure stable policy implementation and enforcement through a technical bureaucracy and independent judiciary.

The Impact of Inequality in Latin America

This paper examines the impact of inequality on poor people in Latin America. It is argued that development policies in Latin America and other developing regions should focus not only on eliminating poverty and deprivation but also on preventing and reducing inequality. By inequality we refer not only to differences in income or consumption between population groups but also to divergences in the access to social and political rights (education, health care, voting, and so on). Although conceptually related, poverty and inequality are two distinct phenomena and it is possible that falls in poverty may be accompanied by increases in inequality and vice-versa. In fact, many Latin America countries have experienced the former in recent years. In the long-term, however, persistent inequalities as those observed in the Latin America region will undermine efforts to reduce poverty and destitution due to the emergence of poverty traps caused by the impossibility of economic and social mobility of certain population groups. This will have important consequences for the challenge of achieving the Millennium Development Goal of halving poverty worldwide by 2015. In addition, persistently high inequalities will also impact negatively on crucial economic, social and political variables and will thus seriously undermine the success of any development strategies.Inequality, poverty, developing countries, Latin America

Governance, Democracy and Poverty Reduction: Lessons drawn from household surveys in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America

Public statistics face quite a challenge when it comes to measuring new dimensions of development (institutions, governance, and social and political participation). To take up this challenge, modules on Governance, Democracy and Multiple Dimensions of Poverty have been appended to household surveys by National Statistics Institutes in twelve African and Latin-American developing countries. This paper presents the issues addressed and the methodological lessons learnt along with a selection of findings to illustrate this innovative approach and demonstrate its analytic potential. We investigate, for instance, the population’s support for democratic principles, the respect for civil and political rights and the trust in the political class; the “need for the State”, particularly of the poorest; the extent of petty corruption; the reliability of expert surveys on governance; the perception of decentralisation policies at local level; the level and vitality of social and political participation, etc. The conclusive appraisal made opens up prospects for the national statistical information systems in the developing countries. The measurement and tracking of this new set of objective and subjective public policy monitoring indicators would benefit from being made systematic.Africa, Latin America, Democracy, Monitoring Mechanism, Household Surveys,

The Political Economy of the Budget Process: The Case of Ecuador

This study presents the case of Ecuador. The report describes the main actors (formal and informal) involved in the budget-making process, and presents evidence regarding the main political and economic determinants of fiscal performance. It also discusses whether different political and institutional arrangements governing the budget process affect incentives for the composition of the budget.

Institutional Arrangements and Fiscal Performance: The Latin American Experience

This paper considers whether institutional factors, in this instance electoral systems and procedures, affect Latin American countries` fiscal performance as measured by the size of the public sector, fiscal deficits, the size of the public debt, and the degree of procyclality of fiscal policy. The authors find that electoral systems characterized by large district magnitude and high political fragmentation have larger governments, larger deficits, and more procyclical fiscal policies. Transparent and hierarchical budget procedures, on the other hand, lead to lower deficits and levels of debt.

Structural Stability: On the Prerequisites of Nonviolent Conflict Management

The concept of “structural stability” has been gaining prominence in development policy circles. In the EU’s and the OECD Development Assistance Committee’s (OECD DAC) understanding, it describes the ability of societies to handle intra-societal conflict without resorting to violence. This study investigates the preconditions of structural stability and tests their mutual interconnections. Seven dimensions are analyzed: (1) long-term economic growth, (2) environmental security, (3) social equality, (4) governmental effectiveness, (5) democracy, (6) rule of law, and (7) inclusion of identity groups. The postulated mutual enhancement of the seven dimensions is plausible but cannot be proven. The most significant positive relationship appears between “democracy” and “rule of law,” respectively, on the one hand and the dependent variable “violence/ human security” on the other hand. This points to the usefulness of the political concept of structural stability to promote development policy agendas in this area at least. Applications that reach beyond these initial findings will, however, require further research.Structural stability, violence, human security, development aid, conflict management, prerequisites of nonviolence