Situation Awareness for Smart Distribution Systems

In recent years, the global climate has become variable due to intensification of the greenhouse effect, and natural disasters are frequently occurring, which poses challenges to the situation awareness of intelligent distribution networks. Aside from the continuous grid connection of distributed generation, energy storage and new energy generation not only reduces the power supply pressure of distribution network to a certain extent but also brings new consumption pressure and load impact. Situation awareness is a technology based on the overall dynamic insight of environment and covering perception, understanding, and prediction. Such means have been widely used in security, intelligence, justice, intelligent transportation, and other fields and gradually become the research direction of digitization and informatization in the future. We hope this Special Issue represents a useful contribution. We present 10 interesting papers that cover a wide range of topics all focused on problems and solutions related to situation awareness for smart distribution systems. We sincerely hope the papers included in this Special Issue will inspire more researchers to further develop situation awareness for smart distribution systems. We strongly believe that there is a need for more work to be carried out, and we hope this issue provides a useful open-access platform for the dissemination of new ideas

Data Mining

The availability of big data due to computerization and automation has generated an urgent need for new techniques to analyze and convert big data into useful information and knowledge. Data mining is a promising and leading-edge technology for mining large volumes of data, looking for hidden information, and aiding knowledge discovery. It can be used for characterization, classification, discrimination, anomaly detection, association, clustering, trend or evolution prediction, and much more in fields such as science, medicine, economics, engineering, computers, and even business analytics. This book presents basic concepts, ideas, and research in data mining

Behavioral analysis in cybersecurity using machine learning: a study based on graph representation, class imbalance and temporal dissection

The main goal of this thesis is to improve behavioral cybersecurity analysis using machine learning, exploiting graph structures, temporal dissection, and addressing imbalance problems.This main objective is divided into four specific goals: OBJ1: To study the influence of the temporal resolution on highlighting micro-dynamics in the entity behavior classification problem. In real use cases, time-series information could be not enough for describing the entity behavior classification. For this reason, we plan to exploit graph structures for integrating both structured and unstructured data in a representation of entities and their relationships. In this way, it will be possible to appreciate not only the single temporal communication but the whole behavior of these entities. Nevertheless, entity behaviors evolve over time and therefore, a static graph may not be enoughto describe all these changes. For this reason, we propose to use a temporal dissection for creating temporal subgraphs and therefore, analyze the influence of the temporal resolution on the graph creation and the entity behaviors within. Furthermore, we propose to study how the temporal granularity should be used for highlighting network micro-dynamics and short-term behavioral changes which can be a hint of suspicious activities. OBJ2: To develop novel sampling methods that work with disconnected graphs for addressing imbalanced problems avoiding component topology changes. Graph imbalance problem is a very common and challenging task and traditional graph sampling techniques that work directly on these structures cannot be used without modifying the graph’s intrinsic information or introducing bias. Furthermore, existing techniques have shown to be limited when disconnected graphs are used. For this reason, novel resampling methods for balancing the number of nodes that can be directly applied over disconnected graphs, without altering component topologies, need to be introduced. In particular, we propose to take advantage of the existence of disconnected graphs to detect and replicate the most relevant graph components without changing their topology, while considering traditional data-level strategies for handling the entity behaviors within. OBJ3: To study the usefulness of the generative adversarial networks for addressing the class imbalance problem in cybersecurity applications. Although traditional data-level pre-processing techniques have shown to be effective for addressing class imbalance problems, they have also shown downside effects when highly variable datasets are used, as it happens in cybersecurity. For this reason, new techniques that can exploit the overall data distribution for learning highly variable behaviors should be investigated. In this sense, GANs have shown promising results in the image and video domain, however, their extension to tabular data is not trivial. For this reason, we propose to adapt GANs for working with cybersecurity data and exploit their ability in learning and reproducing the input distribution for addressing the class imbalance problem (as an oversampling technique). Furthermore, since it is not possible to find a unique GAN solution that works for every scenario, we propose to study several GAN architectures with several training configurations to detect which is the best option for a cybersecurity application. OBJ4: To analyze temporal data trends and performance drift for enhancing cyber threat analysis. Temporal dynamics and incoming new data can affect the quality of the predictions compromising the model reliability. This phenomenon makes models get outdated without noticing. In this sense, it is very important to be able to extract more insightful information from the application domain analyzing data trends, learning processes, and performance drifts over time. For this reason, we propose to develop a systematic approach for analyzing how the data quality and their amount affect the learning process. Moreover, in the contextof CTI, we propose to study the relations between temporal performance drifts and the input data distribution for detecting possible model limitations, enhancing cyber threat analysis.Programa de Doctorado en Ciencias y Tecnologías Industriales (RD 99/2011) Industria Zientzietako eta Teknologietako Doktoretza Programa (ED 99/2011

Backwards is the way forward: feedback in the cortical hierarchy predicts the expected future

Clark offers a powerful description of the brain as a prediction machine, which offers progress on two distinct levels. First, on an abstract conceptual level, it provides a unifying framework for perception, action, and cognition (including subdivisions such as attention, expectation, and imagination). Second, hierarchical prediction offers progress on a concrete descriptive level for testing and constraining conceptual elements and mechanisms of predictive coding models (estimation of predictions, prediction errors, and internal models)

Reconstructing Dynamical Systems From Stochastic Differential Equations to Machine Learning

Die Modellierung komplexer Systeme mit einer großen Anzahl von Freiheitsgraden ist in den letzten Jahrzehnten zu einer großen Herausforderung geworden. In der Regel werden nur einige wenige Variablen komplexer Systeme in Form von gemessenen Zeitreihen beobachtet, während die meisten von ihnen - die möglicherweise mit den beobachteten Variablen interagieren - verborgen bleiben. In dieser Arbeit befassen wir uns mit dem Problem der Rekonstruktion und Vorhersage der zugrunde liegenden Dynamik komplexer Systeme mit Hilfe verschiedener datengestützter Ansätze. Im ersten Teil befassen wir uns mit dem umgekehrten Problem der Ableitung einer unbekannten Netzwerkstruktur komplexer Systeme, die Ausbreitungsphänomene widerspiegelt, aus beobachteten Ereignisreihen. Wir untersuchen die paarweise statistische Ähnlichkeit zwischen den Sequenzen von Ereigniszeitpunkten an allen Knotenpunkten durch Ereignissynchronisation (ES) und Ereignis-Koinzidenz-Analyse (ECA), wobei wir uns auf die Idee stützen, dass funktionale Konnektivität als Stellvertreter für strukturelle Konnektivität dienen kann. Im zweiten Teil konzentrieren wir uns auf die Rekonstruktion der zugrunde liegenden Dynamik komplexer Systeme anhand ihrer dominanten makroskopischen Variablen unter Verwendung verschiedener stochastischer Differentialgleichungen (SDEs). In dieser Arbeit untersuchen wir die Leistung von drei verschiedenen SDEs - der Langevin-Gleichung (LE), der verallgemeinerten Langevin-Gleichung (GLE) und dem Ansatz der empirischen Modellreduktion (EMR). Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die LE bessere Ergebnisse für Systeme mit schwachem Gedächtnis zeigt, während sie die zugrunde liegende Dynamik von Systemen mit Gedächtniseffekten und farbigem Rauschen nicht rekonstruieren kann. In diesen Situationen sind GLE und EMR besser geeignet, da die Wechselwirkungen zwischen beobachteten und unbeobachteten Variablen in Form von Speichereffekten berücksichtigt werden. Im letzten Teil dieser Arbeit entwickeln wir ein Modell, das auf dem Echo State Network (ESN) basiert und mit der PNF-Methode (Past Noise Forecasting) kombiniert wird, um komplexe Systeme in der realen Welt vorherzusagen. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass das vorgeschlagene Modell die entscheidenden Merkmale der zugrunde liegenden Dynamik der Klimavariabilität erfasst.Modeling complex systems with large numbers of degrees of freedom have become a grand challenge over the past decades. Typically, only a few variables of complex systems are observed in terms of measured time series, while the majority of them – which potentially interact with the observed ones - remain hidden. Throughout this thesis, we tackle the problem of reconstructing and predicting the underlying dynamics of complex systems using different data-driven approaches. In the first part, we address the inverse problem of inferring an unknown network structure of complex systems, reflecting spreading phenomena, from observed event series. We study the pairwise statistical similarity between the sequences of event timings at all nodes through event synchronization (ES) and event coincidence analysis (ECA), relying on the idea that functional connectivity can serve as a proxy for structural connectivity. In the second part, we focus on reconstructing the underlying dynamics of complex systems from their dominant macroscopic variables using different Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs). We investigate the performance of three different SDEs – the Langevin Equation (LE), Generalized Langevin Equation (GLE), and the Empirical Model Reduction (EMR) approach in this thesis. Our results reveal that LE demonstrates better results for systems with weak memory while it fails to reconstruct underlying dynamics of systems with memory effects and colored-noise forcing. In these situations, the GLE and EMR are more suitable candidates since the interactions between observed and unobserved variables are considered in terms of memory effects. In the last part of this thesis, we develop a model based on the Echo State Network (ESN), combined with the past noise forecasting (PNF) method, to predict real-world complex systems. Our results show that the proposed model captures the crucial features of the underlying dynamics of climate variability

Wavefront Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks for Adaptive Optics

Latency in the control loop of Adaptive Optics (AO) systems can severely limit its performance. Theories describing the temporal evolution of the atmospheric turbulence, such as the frozen flow hypothesis, justify the feasibility of predicting the turbulence (or equivalently its measurements) to compensate for the resultant temporal error in the system. This will mostly benefit AO assisted High Contrast Imaging (HCI) instruments for enhanced contrast, or wide-field AO systems for improved sky coverage. In this thesis, we explore the potential of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as a nonlinear tool for open-loop wavefront prediction. The ANN predictor composes mainly Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) cells, an ANN type specialised in sequence modelling and prediction. We demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of an ANN predictor both with simulated and on-sky 7 × 7 Shack-Hartmann Wavefront Sensor (SHWFS) CANARY data measured at 150 Hz, an AO demonstrator on the 4.2 m William Herschel Telescope (WHT), La Palma. We provide evidence that in addition to accurately predicting the wavefronts, an ANN predictor is also filtering high temporal frequencies such as Wavefront Sensor (WFS) noise. We show that an ANN predictor is adaptive to time-variant turbulence on sub-second level without user tuning. Specifically, we show that an ANN predictor is capable of predicting both frozen flow and non-frozen flow such as dome seeing, and that the ANN prediction can be based on a per-subaperture basis. As a pioneer, this thesis examines in great detail the characteristics of an ANN wavefront predictor and provides implications towards an on-sky implementation