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A novel knowledge discovery based approach for supplier risk scoring with application in the HVAC industry
This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University LondonThis research has led to a novel methodology for assessment and quantification of supply risks in the supply chain. The research has built on advanced Knowledge Discovery techniques and has resulted to a software implementation to be able to do so. The methodology developed and presented here resembles the well-known consumer credit scoring methods as it leads to a similar metric, or score, for assessing a supplier’s reliability and risk of conducting business with that supplier. However, the focus is on a wide range of operational metrics rather than just financial, which credit scoring techniques typically focus on.
The core of the methodology comprises the application of Knowledge Discovery techniques to extract the likelihood of possible risks from within a range of available datasets. In combination with cross-impact analysis, those datasets are examined for establish the inter-relationships and mutual connections among several factors that are likely contribute to risks associated with particular suppliers. This approach is called conjugation analysis. The resulting parameters become the inputs into a logistic regression which leads to a risk scoring model the outcome of the process is the standardized risk score which is analogous to the well-known consumer risk scoring model, better known as FICO score.
The proposed methodology has been applied to an Air Conditioning manufacturing company. Two models have been developed. The first identifies the supply risks based on the data about purchase orders and selected risk factors. With this model the likelihoods of delivery failures, quality failures and cost failures are obtained. The second model built on the first one but also used the actual data about the performance of supplier to identify risks of conducting business with particular suppliers. Its target was to provide quantitative measures of an individual supplier’s risk level.
The supplier risk scoring model is tested on the data acquired from the company for its performance analysis. The supplier risk scoring model achieved 86.2% accuracy, while the area under curve (AUC) was 0.863. The AUC curve is much higher than required model’s validity threshold value of 0.5. It represents developed model’s validity and reliability for future data. The numerical studies conducted with real-life datasets have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed methodology and system as well as its future potential for industrial adoption
Technology transfer practices and strategies: Issues for Nigerian construction organisations and for research
Technology transfer is increasingly being seen as an important issue for economic development and growth. Arguably, this is why developed and especially developing countries are very keen on technology transfer. However, there are those that contend that organisations in the Nigerian construction industry are not as engaged in technology transfer as many would like, and that potential benefits of doing so are not realized. In the same vein, the challenges that confront construction organisations in Nigeria in terms of technology transfer have received very little empirical studies. This paper, therefore, presents a thorough review of literature on strategic issues and choices that Nigerian construction organisations face in grappling with technology transfer, together with associated challenges. Consideration is also given to what technology transfer actually means to such organisations, and how this is viewed in line with other terms such as innovation. The paper argues and concludes that the challenges that confront construction organisations in Nigeria are multifaceted and likely to impact on their strategic choices. In the same vein, it is also argued that these have implications for researchers attempting to investigate technology transfer practices and strategies in construction organisations in Nigeria in terms of their choice of research strategy and design
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