Data Science: Measuring Uncertainties

With the increase in data processing and storage capacity, a large amount of data is available. Data without analysis does not have much value. Thus, the demand for data analysis is increasing daily, and the consequence is the appearance of a large number of jobs and published articles. Data science has emerged as a multidisciplinary field to support data-driven activities, integrating and developing ideas, methods, and processes to extract information from data. This includes methods built from different knowledge areas: Statistics, Computer Science, Mathematics, Physics, Information Science, and Engineering. This mixture of areas has given rise to what we call Data Science. New solutions to the new problems are reproducing rapidly to generate large volumes of data. Current and future challenges require greater care in creating new solutions that satisfy the rationality for each type of problem. Labels such as Big Data, Data Science, Machine Learning, Statistical Learning, and Artificial Intelligence are demanding more sophistication in the foundations and how they are being applied. This point highlights the importance of building the foundations of Data Science. This book is dedicated to solutions and discussions of measuring uncertainties in data analysis problems

Deoxy technologies: a medical technology startup project: business plan for UK market

L26, O32DEOXY Technologies is a seed-stage medical technology project whose future core business will be based on an innovative Gene Expression profiling (GEP) nanotechnology, developed and patented at Harvard University. The project is located at Ludwig-Maximilian University (Germany) and its goal is to develop diagnostic tests for clinical market where price, speed and automation are competitive advantages. DEOXY Technologies intends to become a global and "lean" company focused on development and manufacturing of molecular tests (in vitro medical devices). This is a strategic analysis and a feasibility study for the breast cancer market. Breast cancer is the most frequent female cancer affecting 12% of women, worldwide and is seen as a paradigm of precision medicine success. The promoter identifies a clinical application for the GEP technology and proposes an alliance with an USA biomarker-focused company whose assets are complementary to the technology. The strategic analysis was based on a macroenvironmental analysis for the entrance market: United Kingdom, where regulatory and reimbursement contexts were systematized, and for Germany the country of development and manufacturing, where the impact of governmental support and the integration in a biotechnology cluster are critical favorable factors. In the microenvironmental analysis the high barriers to entrance and the importance of planning an exit strategy were underlined. The economic and financial viability analysis revealed that governmental funding is a critical success factor, as demonstrated by the positivity of the APV and emphasized the importance of a market expansion plan before starting operations. The scenario analysis explored how reimbursement and healthcare policies may impact the economic and financial viability of the project.A DEOXY Technologies é um projeto, baseado numa nanotecnologia inovadora de análise perfis de expressão genética (APEG), descoberta e patenteada na Universidade de Harvard. O projeto está integrado na Universidade de Ludwig-Maximilians, (Alemanha) e é candidato a fundos de investimento governamentais. A DEOXY Technologies acredita que por possuir uma tecnologia inovadora pode desenvolver máquinas de APEG e testes moleculares para o mercado clínico, onde o preço, automatização e rapidez serão vantagens competitivas. A DEOXY Technologies planeia tornar-se uma empresa global e "lean", focada no desenvolvimento e produção de testes moleculares "in vitro". Este plano de negócios contém a análise estratégica e económico-financeira para o mercado do cancro da mama, em Inglaterra (Reino Unido). O cancro da mama é o cancro mais frequente na mulher, afetando 12% desta população, e é paradigmático do sucesso da medicina de precisão. O promotor identifica uma necessidade clínica e para sua concretização propõe uma aliança com uma empresa biotecnológica detentora de ativos intelectuais complementares aos da DEOXY Technologies. A estratégia proposta baseia-se na análise PEST para o Reino Unido, contendo a regulamentação e etapas-chave para obter reembolso, e análise PEST para Alemanha, destacando-se a relevância do apoio governamental e da inserção num cluster biotecnológico como fatores críticos de sucesso. Da análise micro-ambiental salientam-se as barreiras à entrada e a importância da estratégia de saída nesta indústria. O estudo de viabilidade económico-financeira revelou que os fundos governamentais são um fator critico para a exequibilidade e viabilidade económico-financeira do projeto, sendo o valor atualizado ajustado o único indicador positivo. A análise de cenários demonstra como as políticas de cuidados de saúde influenciam a estratégia e a viabilidade económico-financeira do projeto

Power Capacity Expansion Planning Considering Endogenous Technology Cost Learning

We present an power systems optimisation model for national-scale power supply capacity expansion considering endogenous technology cost reduction (ESO-XEL). The mixed-integer linear program minimises total system cost while complying with operational constraints, carbon emission targets, and ancillary service requirements. A data clustering technique and the relaxation of integer scheduling constraints is evaluated and applied to decrease the model solution time. Two cost learning curves for the different power technologies are derived: one assuming local learning effects, the other accounting for global knowledge spill-over. A piece-wise linear formulation allows the integration of the exponential learning curves into the ESO-XEL model. The model is applied to the UK power system in the time frame of 2015 to 2050. The consideration of cost learning effects moves optimal investment timings to earlier planning years and influences the competitiveness of technologies. In addition, the maximum capacity build rate parameter influences the share of power generation significantly; the possibility of rapid capacity build-up is more important for total system cost reduction by 2050 than accounting for technology cost reduction

Frequency domain principal components estimation of fractionally cointegrated processes

In this paper we study the zero frequency spectral properties of fractionally cointegrated long memory processes and introduce a new frequency domain principal components estimator of the cointegration space and the factor loading matrix for the long memory factors. We find that for fractionally differenced (fractionally) cointegrated processes the squared multiple coherence at the zero frequency is equal to one, the spectral density matrix at the zero frequency is singular, and the factor loading and cointegrating matrices can be obtained from the eigenvectors of the spectral matrix at the zero frequency, associated with the positive and zero roots, respectively. A Monte Carlo simulation reveals that the proposed principal components estimator has already good properties with relatively small sample sizes. JEL Classification: C22fractional cointegration, frequency domain, long memory

A wavelet threshold denoising procedure for multimodel predictions: An application to economic time series

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordNoise-affected economic time series, realizations of stochastic processes exhibiting complex and possibly nonlinear dynamics, are dealt with. This is often the case of time series found in economics, which notoriously suffer from problems such as low signal-to-noise ratios, asymmetric cycles and multiregimes patterns. In such a framework, even sophisticated statistical models might generate suboptimal predictions, whose quality can further deteriorate unless time consuming updating or deeper model revision procedures are carried out on a regular basis. However, when the models' outcomes are expected to be disseminated in timeliness manner (as in the case of Central Banks or national statistical offices), their modification might not be a viable solution, due to time constraints. On the other hand, if the application of simpler linear models usually entails relatively easier tuning-up procedures, this would come at the expenses of the quality of the predictions yielded. A mixed, self-tuning forecasting method is therefore proposed. This is an automatic, 2-stage procedure, able to generate predictions by exploiting the denoising capabilities provided by the wavelet theory in conjunction with a compounded forecasting generator. Its out-of-sample performances are evaluated through an empirical study carried out on macroeconomic time series

The Marketing-Entrepreneurship Interface: A Contextual and Practical Critique of the Role of Entrepreneurship

In the late nineteen eighties, Hills proposed that marketing scholars should pay far more attention to entrepreneurship and the smaller enterprise. He founded an annual research symposium and associated proceedings published under the title of Research at the Marketing/Entrepreneurship Interface. The symposia and proceedings still flourish and both the Academy of Marketing in the UK and the American Marketing Association have special interest groups for this area. This thesis is concerned with the contribution that entrepreneurship can make to understanding this interface. Without a robust definition of entrepreneurship, the interface simply becomes a study of a very common and disparate organisational form - Small to Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs). There is no shame in this for they deserve our interest, support and help. Without an understanding of the entrepreneurship component of the interface that help and support might be less effective than we, and they, would desire. Small business is not a little large business, they operate in very different circumstances with very much fewer resources to hand, and, because of who they are may have very different motivations and skill sets. Not necessarily worse but different. So entrepreneurial marketing might offer different insights, and help, compared to a standard academic approach to small business. This is a PhD by published work and twenty-three submissions are organised into four themes and form a core for discussion. The first theme considers appropriate definitions of entrepreneurship and the role they play in conceptualising the interface. The second theme considers how adopting an entrepreneurial marketing approach could guide and inform the SME in two particular respects: addressing critical situations and developing and maintaining appropriate relationships. This theme is considering entrepreneurial marketing within the SME. The third theme considers firstly entrepreneurial marketing extended away from the SME to larger organisations in both public and private ownership and to a particular form of public art where participants can be small or large and in either public or private ownership. Secondly the experience of organisations within a cluster and SMEs within a conflict zone are considered. The distinguishing focus of this third theme is that it extends the interface away from the traditional focus on SMEs. Whilst it was natural for the interface to arise out of a desire to understand a neglected organisational form in marketing – it can be applied in other contexts. The final theme considers how the author’s conceptualisation of the interface has informed their teaching and the implications for practical business support. A fundamental argument that is made in respect of understanding the role of entrepreneurship within entrepreneurial marketing is that we should not treat entrepreneurship as an absolute attribute which would direct us into classifying people simply into entrepreneurs as opposed to non-entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs range from the exceptional ‘stellar’ entrepreneur to those who are imitative of current market offerings and we should work across this range appropriately. Having discussed both an appropriate definition and role for entrepreneurship within the marketingentrepreneurship interface the implications of such a view are illustrated through considering the different contexts discussed in themes two and three above and reflecting upon the delivery of teaching programmes based partly or wholly on the notion of the marketing-entrepreneurship interface. The work is a critique of the role of entrepreneurship within the interface. The contexts selected and discussed draw out practical lessons for a wide range of individuals from undergraduates through SMEs to larger organisations in either private or public ownership

Agricultural public spending, growth and poverty linkage hypotheses in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa

The adoption of the Millennium Development Goal 1 (MDG1) of reducing the rate of poverty to half of the 1990-level by 2015, the advent of democracy in South Africa, among other things, have raised concerns over the potential role of the agricultural sector. There is a belief that the sector has the capacity to successfully reduce poverty among the rural masses and contribute to addressing the problem of inequality in South Africa. In line with that thinking, South Africa‘s agricultural sector has attracted considerable fiscal policy interest. For instance, South Africa‘s statistics show that public investments in agricultural development programmes have been growing. In spite of this, rural poverty is still a major concern on an overall basis. However, this might not be the case in the Eastern Cape Province and the situation might be different for each district municipality. This study assesses the linkages between public agricultural investment, agricultural growth and poverty reduction in the Eastern Cape Province. The study also addresses the question whether Eastern Cape Province is on course to meet several regional development targets. The study also aims to provide an estimate of the amount of agricultural investment required to attain the agricultural productivity growth rate which is sufficient to meet MDG1. The study reviewed the various theories of public spending, linkages between public investment and agricultural growth and how these components affect the incidence of poverty. The conventional wisdom that public expenditure in agriculture positively affects economic growth and this growth consequently reduces poverty was noted. The reviews also revealed that in many developing countries, the current level of public agricultural investment needs to be increased significantly for countries to meet the MDG1. This study employed the decomposition technique and growth elasticity of poverty concept to estimate the response of poverty to its key determinants. The size of public spending, prioritization of public spending and the intensity in the use of public funds emerged as important in increasing agricultural production. The relationship between government investment in agriculture and agricultural GDP shows iv that public funds were largely behind the province‘s success in increasing agricultural production throughout the period from 1990s to 2010. Agricultural spending went to sustainable resource management, administrative functions and then farmer support programme. Exceptional growth in the size of spending was recorded in respect to agricultural economic function, structured agricultural training, sustainable resource management and veterinary services. Overall output from the agricultural sector fluctuated, and the sector contributed less than 5 per cent to the total provincial GDP. Correlations between growth in agricultural sector and changes in the incidence of poverty in Eastern Cape show that during the period 1995 to 2000, increases in the agricultural GDP per capita may have failed to benefit the poor as poverty increased in all the reported cases.–However, for the period between 2005 and 2010, the situation was different and it was observed that increases in agricultural GDP per capita and were associated with reduction in the incidence of poverty. Growth elasticity of poverty (GEP) estimates reveal that agricultural GDP per capita was more important in reducing poverty in 5 out of the 7 district municipalities. Non-agricultural GDP per capita was only important in two district municipalities. It emerged that most of the district municipalities are not in a position to meet any of the regional set goals. This situation is largely attributable to the province‘s failure to boost agricultural production which is an outcome of low and inefficient public expenditure management, inconsistent and misaligned policies and failure to fully embrace the concept of pro-poor growth. Varied provisional estimates for the required agricultural growth rate and the increase in public spending on agriculture required in order to reach MDG1 were calculated for each district municipalities. All the district municipalities of Eastern Cape will need to increase public investment in agriculture for them to achieve MDG1

Planeamento da expansão do sistema electroprodutor em ambiente de mercado

Tese de doutoramento. Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Porto. 201