Machine learning and its applications in reliability analysis systems

In this thesis, we are interested in exploring some aspects of Machine Learning (ML) and its application in the Reliability Analysis systems (RAs). We begin by investigating some ML paradigms and their- techniques, go on to discuss the possible applications of ML in improving RAs performance, and lastly give guidelines of the architecture of learning RAs. Our survey of ML covers both levels of Neural Network learning and Symbolic learning. In symbolic process learning, five types of learning and their applications are discussed: rote learning, learning from instruction, learning from analogy, learning from examples, and learning from observation and discovery. The Reliability Analysis systems (RAs) presented in this thesis are mainly designed for maintaining plant safety supported by two functions: risk analysis function, i.e., failure mode effect analysis (FMEA) ; and diagnosis function, i.e., real-time fault location (RTFL). Three approaches have been discussed in creating the RAs. According to the result of our survey, we suggest currently the best design of RAs is to embed model-based RAs, i.e., MORA (as software) in a neural network based computer system (as hardware). However, there are still some improvement which can be made through the applications of Machine Learning. By implanting the 'learning element', the MORA will become learning MORA (La MORA) system, a learning Reliability Analysis system with the power of automatic knowledge acquisition and inconsistency checking, and more. To conclude our thesis, we propose an architecture of La MORA

Modeling social information skills

In a modern economy, the most important resource consists in\ud human talent: competent, knowledgeable people. Locating the right person for\ud the task is often a prerequisite to complex problem-solving, and experienced\ud professionals possess the social skills required to find appropriate human\ud expertise. These skills can be reproduced more and more with specific\ud computer software, an approach defining the new field of social information\ud retrieval. We will analyze the social skills involved and show how to model\ud them on computer. Current methods will be described, notably information\ud retrieval techniques and social network theory. A generic architecture and its\ud functions will be outlined and compared with recent work. We will try in this\ud way to estimate the perspectives of this recent domain

A framework for effective management of condition based maintenance programs in the context of industrial development of E-Maintenance strategies

CBM (Condition Based Maintenance) solutions are increasingly present in industrial systems due to two main circumstances: rapid evolution, without precedents, in the capture and analysis of data and significant cost reduction of supporting technologies. CBM programs in industrial systems can become extremely complex, especially when considering the effective introduction of new capabilities provided by PHM (Prognostics and Health Management) and E-maintenance disciplines. In this scenario, any CBM solution involves the management of numerous technical aspects, that the maintenance manager needs to understand, in order to be implemented properly and effectively, according to the company’s strategy. This paper provides a comprehensive representation of the key components of a generic CBM solution, this is presented using a framework or supporting structure for an effective management of the CBM programs. The concept “symptom of failure”, its corresponding analysis techniques (introduced by ISO 13379-1 and linked with RCM/FMEA analysis), and other international standard for CBM open-software application development (for instance, ISO 13374 and OSA-CBM), are used in the paper for the development of the framework. An original template has been developed, adopting the formal structure of RCM analysis templates, to integrate the information of the PHM techniques used to capture the failure mode behaviour and to manage maintenance. Finally, a case study describes the framework using the referred template.Gobierno de Andalucía P11-TEP-7303 M

Analysis reuse exploiting taxonomical information and belief assignment in industrial problem solving

To take into account the experience feedback on solving complex problems in business is deemed as a way to improve the quality of products and processes. Only a few academic works, however, are concerned with the representation and the instrumentation of experience feedback systems. We propose, in this paper, a model of experiences and mechanisms to use these experiences. More specifically, we wish to encourage the reuse of already performed expert analysis to propose a priori analysis in the solving of a new problem. The proposal is based on a representation in the context of the experience of using a conceptual marker and an explicit representation of the analysis incorporating expert opinions and the fusion of these opinions. The experience feedback models and inference mechanisms are integrated in a commercial support tool for problem solving methodologies. The results obtained to this point have already led to the definition of the role of ‘‘Rex Manager’’ with principles of sustainable management for continuous improvement of industrial processes in companies

Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle. An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287], [arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A Cognitive-based scheme for user reliability and expertise assessment in Q&A social networks

Q&A social media has gained a great deal of attention during recent years. People rely on these sites to obtain information due to the number of advantages they offer as compared to conventional sources of knowledge (e.g., asynchronous and convenient access). However, for the same question one may find highly contradictory answers, causing ambiguity with respect to the correct information. This can be attributed to the presence of unreliable and/or non-expert users. In this work, we propose a novel approach for estimating the reliability and expertise of a user based on human cognitive traits. Every user can individually estimate these values based on local pairwise interactions. We examine the convergence performance of our algorithm and we find that it can accurately assess the reliability and the expertise of a user and can successfully react to the latter's behavior change. © 2011 IEEE

Elicitation of structured engineering judgement to inform a focussed FMEA

The practical use of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been criticised because it is often implemented too late and in a manner that does not allow information to be fed-back to inform the product design. Lessons learnt from the use of elicitation methods to gather structured expert judgement about engineering concerns for a new product design has led to an enhancement of the approach for implementing design and process FMEA. We refer to this variant as a focussed FMEA since the goal is to enable relevant engineers to contribute to the analysis and to act upon the outcomes in such a way that all activities focus upon the design needs. The paper begins with a review of the proposed process to identify and quantify engineering concerns. The pros and cons of using elicitation methods, originally designed to support construction of a Bayesian prior, to inform a focussed FMEA are analysed and a comparison of the proposed process in relation to the existing standards is made. An industrial example is presented to illustrate customisation of the process and discuss the impact on the design process

Collaborative assessment of information provider's reliability and expertise using subjective logic

Q&A social media have gained a lot of attention during the recent years. People rely on these sites to obtain information due to a number of advantages they offer as compared to conventional sources of knowledge (e.g., asynchronous and convenient access). However, for the same question one may find highly contradicting answers, causing an ambiguity with respect to the correct information. This can be attributed to the presence of unreliable and/or non-expert users. These two attributes (reliability and expertise) significantly affect the quality of the answer/information provided. We present a novel approach for estimating these user's characteristics relying on human cognitive traits. In brief, we propose each user to monitor the activity of her peers (on the basis of responses to questions asked by her) and observe their compliance with predefined cognitive models. These observations lead to local assessments that can be further fused to obtain a reliability and expertise consensus for every other user in the social network (SN). For the aggregation part we use subjective logic. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study of this kind in the context of Q&A SN. Our proposed approach is highly distributed; each user can individually estimate the expertise and the reliability of her peers using her direct interactions with them and our framework. The online SN (OSN), which can be considered as a distributed database, performs continuous data aggregation for users expertise and reliability assessment in order to reach a consensus. We emulate a Q&A SN to examine various performance aspects of our algorithm (e.g., convergence time, responsiveness etc.). Our evaluations indicate that it can accurately assess the reliability and the expertise of a user with a small number of samples and can successfully react to the latter's behavior change, provided that the cognitive traits hold in practice. © 2011 ICST