Acceleration of Uncertainty Updating in the Description of Transport Processes in Heterogeneous Materials

The prediction of thermo-mechanical behaviour of heterogeneous materials such as heat and moisture transport is strongly influenced by the uncertainty in parameters. Such materials occur e.g. in historic buildings, and the durability assessment of these therefore needs a reliable and probabilistic simulation of transport processes, which is related to the suitable identification of material parameters. In order to include expert knowledge as well as experimental results, one can employ an updating procedure such as Bayesian inference. The classical probabilistic setting of the identification process in Bayes's form requires the solution of a stochastic forward problem via computationally expensive sampling techniques, which makes the method almost impractical. In this paper novel stochastic computational techniques such as the stochastic Galerkin method are applied in order to accelerate the updating procedure. The idea is to replace the computationally expensive forward simulation via the conventional finite element (FE) method by the evaluation of a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). Such an approximation of the FE model for the forward simulation perfectly suits the Bayesian updating. The presented uncertainty updating techniques are applied to the numerical model of coupled heat and moisture transport in heterogeneous materials with spatially varying coefficients defined by random fields

Probabilistic modeling of chloride penetration with respect to concrete heterogeneity and epoxy-coating on the reinforcement

The presented article demonstrates the probabilistic method based modeling of the 2D chloride ingress into reinforced concrete structures with respect to concrete heterogeneity and epoxy-coated steel reinforcement. Spatial change of concrete diffusion is assessed through the investigation of random variation of the ability of concrete to resist chloride ingress. Time-dependent chloride concentration at the reinforcement level in both homogeneous and heterogeneous models is comparatively considered taking into account of the influence of reinforcement protection as well as the defects and holidays of the coating. Expansion optimal linear estimation method is exploited to generate a random field for the structure at the mesoscale and correlation length is employed to simplify the modeling process. Preliminary analyses of the built model are conducted in both deterministic and probabilistic solutions under the scheme of the finite element method. Thus, possibility of such analyses is exploited.Web of Science1224art. no. 406

Probabilistic simulation for the certification of railway vehicles

The present dynamic certification process that is based on experiments has been essentially built on the basis of experience. The introduction of simulation techniques into this process would be of great interest. However, an accurate simulation of complex, nonlinear systems is a difficult task, in particular when rare events (for example, unstable behaviour) are considered. After analysing the system and the currently utilized procedure, this paper proposes a method to achieve, in some particular cases, a simulation-based certification. It focuses on the need for precise and representative excitations (running conditions) and on their variable nature. A probabilistic approach is therefore proposed and illustrated using an example. First, this paper presents a short description of the vehicle / track system and of the experimental procedure. The proposed simulation process is then described. The requirement to analyse a set of running conditions that is at least as large as the one tested experimentally is explained. In the third section, a sensitivity analysis to determine the most influential parameters of the system is reported. Finally, the proposed method is summarized and an application is presented

Formal analysis techniques for gossiping protocols

We give a survey of formal verification techniques that can be used to corroborate existing experimental results for gossiping protocols in a rigorous manner. We present properties of interest for gossiping protocols and discuss how various formal evaluation techniques can be employed to predict them

Meta-models for structural reliability and uncertainty quantification

A meta-model (or a surrogate model) is the modern name for what was traditionally called a response surface. It is intended to mimic the behaviour of a computational model M (e.g. a finite element model in mechanics) while being inexpensive to evaluate, in contrast to the original model which may take hours or even days of computer processing time. In this paper various types of meta-models that have been used in the last decade in the context of structural reliability are reviewed. More specifically classical polynomial response surfaces, polynomial chaos expansions and kriging are addressed. It is shown how the need for error estimates and adaptivity in their construction has brought this type of approaches to a high level of efficiency. A new technique that solves the problem of the potential biasedness in the estimation of a probability of failure through the use of meta-models is finally presented.Comment: Keynote lecture Fifth Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications (5th APSSRA) May 2012, Singapor