Stochastic Multi-Objective Evacuation Model Under Managed and Unmanaged policies

Abstract Natural and man-created disasters, such as hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, accidents and terrorist attacks, require evacuation and assistance routes. Evacuation routes are mostly based on the capacities of the road network. However, in extreme cases, such as earthquakes, road network infrastructure may adversely be affected, and may not supply their required capacities. If for various situations, the potential damage for critical roads can be identified in advance, it is possible to develop an evacuation model, that can be used in various situations. This paper focuses on the development of a model for the design of an optimal evacuation network which simultaneously minimizes retrofit costs of critical links (bridges, tunnels, etc.) and evacuation time. The model considers infrastructures' vulnerability (as a stochastic function which is dependent on the event location and magnitude), road network, transportation demand and evacuation areas. Furthermore, the model evaluates the benefits of managed evacuation (system optimum) when compared to unmanaged evacuation (user equilibrium). The paper presents a mathematic model for the presented problem. However, since an optimal solution cannot be found within a reasonable timeframe, a heuristic model is presented as well. This heuristic model is based on evolutionary algorithms, which also provides a mechanism for solving the problem as a multi-objective stochastic problem. Using a real-world data, the algorithm is evaluated and compared to the unmanaged evacuation conditions. The results clearly demonstrate the advantages of managed evacuation, as the average travel time can be reduced by 5% to 30%

A multi-objective route planning model based on genetic algorithm for cuboid surfaces

During a natural disaster, risk management for the evacuation of people in high-rise buildings is very important for saving lives. In the case of fire, all parameters such as detection, lighting, warning systems, etc. for safety must be used interactively. Determination of evacuation conditions and different ways out are important parameters during the fire. In this study, a system is proposed for evacuating people from building with the shortest/safest route, taking into account certain factors to evaluate the current situation of the fire. Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) may be adapted to this real-life problem to protect people in the shortest time finding optimum route. In this study, the system based on Genetic Algorithm is performed using the online information about smoke, heat and safety level, the location of fire and the potential congestion of people in order to evacuate people from the building with safety route. The system contains two- and three-dimensional surface applications to ensure evacuation with optimum distance inside/outside of the building. Results are evaluated considering the evacuation distance. Compared to other methods in the literature, the solution to this problem is improved by adding the evacuation process for the elevator and inside of the building

Intelligent evacuation management systems: A review

Crowd and evacuation management have been active areas of research and study in the recent past. Various developments continue to take place in the process of efficient evacuation of crowds in mass gatherings. This article is intended to provide a review of intelligent evacuation management systems covering the aspects of crowd monitoring, crowd disaster prediction, evacuation modelling, and evacuation path guidelines. Soft computing approaches play a vital role in the design and deployment of intelligent evacuation applications pertaining to crowd control management. While the review deals with video and nonvideo based aspects of crowd monitoring and crowd disaster prediction, evacuation techniques are reviewed via the theme of soft computing, along with a brief review on the evacuation navigation path. We believe that this review will assist researchers in developing reliable automated evacuation systems that will help in ensuring the safety of the evacuees especially during emergency evacuation scenarios

Multimodal-Transport Collaborative Evacuation Strategies for Urban Serious Emergency Incidents Based on Multi-Sources Spatiotemporal Data (Short Paper)

When serious emergency events happen in metropolitan cities where pedestrians and vehicles are in high-density, single modal-transport cannot meet the requirements of quick evacuations. Existing mixed modes of transportation lacks spatiotemporal collaborative ability, which cannot work together to accomplish evacuation tasks in a safe and efficient way. It is of great scientific significance and application value for emergency response to adopt multimodal-transport evacuations and improve their spatial-temporal collaboration ability. However, multimodal-transport evacuation strategies for urban serious emergency event are great challenge to be solved. The reasons lie in that: (1) large-scale urban emergency environment are extremely complicated involving many geographical elements (e.g., road, buildings, over-pass, square, hydrographic net, etc.); (2) Evacuated objects are dynamic and hard to be predicted. (3) the distributions of pedestrians and vehicles are unknown. To such issues, this paper reveals both collaborative and competitive mechanisms of multimodal-transport, and further makes global optimal evacuation strategies from the macro-optimization perspective. Considering detailed geographical environment, pedestrian, vehicle and urban rail transit, a multi-objective multi-dynamic-constraints optimization model for multimodal-transport collaborative emergency evacuation is constructed. Take crowd incidents in Shenzhen as example, empirical experiments with real-world data are conducted to evaluate the evacuation strategies and path planning. It is expected to obtain innovative research achievements on theory and method of urban emergency evacuation in serious emergency events. Moreover, this research results provide spatial-temporal decision support for urban emergency response, which is benefit to constructing smart and safe cities

A social vulnerability-based genetic algorithm to locate-allocate transit bus stops for disaster evacuation in New Orleans, Louisiana

In the face of severe disasters, some or all of the endangered residents must be evacuated to a safe place. A portion of people, due to various reasons (e.g., no available vehicle, too old to drive), will need to take public transit buses to be evacuated. However, to optimize the operation efficiency, the location of these transit pick-up stops and the allocation of the available buses to these stops should be considered seriously by the decision-makers. In the case of a large number of alternative bus stops, it is sometimes impractical to use the exhaustive (brute-force) search to solve this kind of optimization problem because the enumeration and comparison of the effectiveness of a huge number of alternative combinations would take too much model running time. A genetic algorithm (GA) is an efficient and robust method to solve the location/allocation problem. This thesis utilizes GA to discover accurately and efficiently the optimal combination of locations of the transit bus stop for a regional evacuation of the New Orleans metropolitan area, Louisiana. When considering people’s demand for transit buses in the face of disaster evacuation, this research assumes that residents of high social vulnerability should be evacuated with high priority and those with low social vulnerability can be put into low priority. Factor analysis, specifically principal components analysis, was used to identify the social vulnerability from multiple variables input over the study area. The social vulnerability was at the census block group level and the overall social vulnerability index was used to weight the travel time between the centroid of each census block to the nearest transit pick-up location. The simulation results revealed that the pick-up locations obtained from this study can greatly improve the efficiency over the ones currently used by the New Orleans government. The new solution led to a 26,397.6 (total weighted travel time for the entire system measured in hours) fitness value, which is much better than the fitness value 62,736.3 rendered from the currently used evacuation solution

CellEVAC: an adaptive guidance system for crowd evacuation through behavioral optimization

A critical aspect of crowds' evacuation processes is the dynamism of individual decision making. Identifying optimal strategies at an individual level may improve both evacuation time and safety, which is essential for developing efficient evacuation systems. Here, we investigate how to favor a coordinated group dynamic through optimal exit-choice instructions using behavioral strategy optimization. We propose and evaluate an adaptive guidance system (Cell-based Crowd Evacuation, CellEVAC) that dynamically allocates colors to cells in a cellbased pedestrian positioning infrastructure, to provide efficient exit-choice indications. The operational module of CellEVAC implements an optimized discrete-choice model that integrates the influential factors that would make evacuees adapt their exit choice. To optimize the model, we used a simulation?optimization modeling framework that integrates microscopic pedestrian simulation based on the classical Social Force Model. In the majority of studies, the objective has been to optimize evacuation time. In contrast, we paid particular attention to safety by using Pedestrian Fundamental Diagrams that model the dynamics of the exit gates. CellEVAC has been tested in a simulated real scenario (Madrid Arena) under different external pedestrian flow patterns that simulate complex pedestrian interactions. Results showed that CellEVAC outperforms evacuation processes in which the system is not used, with an exponential improvement as interactions become complex. We compared our system with an existing approach based on Cartesian Genetic Programming. Our system exhibited a better overall performance in terms of safety, evacuation time, and the number of revisions of exit-choice decisions. Further analyses also revealed that Cartesian Genetic Programming generates less natural pedestrian reactions and movements than CellEVAC. The fact that the decision logic module is built upon a behavioral model seems to favor a more natural and effective response. We also found that our proposal has a positive influence on evacuations even for a low compliance rate (40%).Ministerio de Economía y Competitivida

Route Guidance Map for Emergency Evacuation

An efficient process of emergency evacuation must be guided. In the event of an evacuation instruction, a significant amount of time is spent by evacuees looking for a place of relative safety or an exit. Due to the ensuing stress and confusion evacuees try to follow others, consequently, all the exits are not used effectively. Therefore, it is important to develop a route guidance map for the emergency. The focus of the map is to help both, the evacuees and the authorities to perform evacuation efficiently. This paper presents a route guidance map for pedestrians that aims an efficient evacuation in case of an emergency. An agent-based simulation framework is used for the simulation of various scenarios to prepare the guiding map. A real world case study of Sarojini Nagar, Delhi is presented to test the presented methodology. Eventually, several strategic recommendations are provided for improving safety of existing infrastructure

DEVELOPMENT OF A MIXED-FLOW OPTIMIZATION SYSTEM FOR EMERGENCY EVACUATION IN URBAN NETWORKS

In most metropolitan areas, an emergency evacuation may demand a potentially large number of evacuees to use transit systems or to walk over some distance to access their passenger cars. In the process of approaching designated pick-up points for evacuation, the massive number of pedestrians often incurs tremendous burden to vehicles in the roadway network. Hence, one critical issue in a multi-modal evacuation planning is the effective coordination of the vehicle and pedestrian flows by considering their complex interactions. The purpose of this research is to develop an integrated system that is capable of generating the optimal evacuation plan and reflecting the real-world network traffic conditions caused by the conflicts of these two types of flows. The first part of this research is an integer programming model designed to optimize the control plans for massive mixed pedestrian-vehicle flows within the evacuation zone. The proposed model, integrating the pedestrian and vehicle networks, can effectively account for their potential conflicts during the evacuation. The model can generate the optimal routing strategies to guide evacuees moving toward either their pick-up locations or parking areas and can also produce a responsive plan to accommodate the massive pedestrian movements. The second part of this research is a mixed-flow simulation tool that can capture the conflicts between pedestrians, between vehicles, and between pedestrians and vehicles in an evacuation network. The core logic of this simulation model is the Mixed-Cellular Automata (MCA) concept, which, with some embedded components, offers a realistic mechanism to reflect the competing and conflicting interactions between vehicle and pedestrian flows. This study is expected to yield the following contributions * Design of an effective framework for planning a multi-modal evacuation within metropolitan areas; * Development of an integrated mixed-flow optimization model that can overcome various modeling and computing difficulties in capturing the mixed-flow dynamics in urban network evacuation; * Construction and calibration of a new mixed-flow simulation model, based on the Cellular Automaton concept, to reflect various conflicting patterns between vehicle and pedestrian flows in an evacuation network

Training of Crisis Mappers and Map Production from Multi-sensor Data: Vernazza Case Study (Cinque Terre National Park, Italy)

This aim of paper is to presents the development of a multidisciplinary project carried out by the cooperation between Politecnico di Torino and ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action). The goal of the project was the training in geospatial data acquiring and processing for students attending Architecture and Engineering Courses, in order to start up a team of "volunteer mappers". Indeed, the project is aimed to document the environmental and built heritage subject to disaster; the purpose is to improve the capabilities of the actors involved in the activities connected in geospatial data collection, integration and sharing. The proposed area for testing the training activities is the Cinque Terre National Park, registered in the World Heritage List since 1997. The area was affected by flood on the 25th of October 2011. According to other international experiences, the group is expected to be active after emergencies in order to upgrade maps, using data acquired by typical geomatic methods and techniques such as terrestrial and aerial Lidar, close-range and aerial photogrammetry, topographic and GNSS instruments etc.; or by non conventional systems and instruments such us UAV, mobile mapping etc. The ultimate goal is to implement a WebGIS platform to share all the data collected with local authorities and the Civil Protectio

Strategies for Prioritizing Needs for Accelerated Construction after Hazard Events

There is a need for rapid and responsive infrastructure repair and construction after natural disaster events such as hurricanes, wildfires, and tornadoes. These natural disasters often shut down basic infrastructure systems, as experienced recently in several Region 6 states as well as in other states around the country. Accelerated construction practices are often used in these situations to speed up the traditional, and often slow, project delivery process. However, after a natural disaster, several and different types of transportation infrastructure components are in need of inspection, rehabilitation or reconstruction, and transportation agencies are challenged with the task of prioritizing these accelerated projects. This study conducted an extensive literature review of current accelerated methods, infrastructure prioritization practices, and institutional barriers. Interviews with professionals from the transportation industry, including both private and public services, were conducted. Significant input from the railroad industry was used to compare private and public transportation systems responses after disasters. The results of this survey were used to quantify the importance of the accelerate methods and prioritization criteria, and which are the barriers to implement a prioritization model. Lastly, a decision support tool for prioritizing needs for accelerated construction after disaster events, specifically hurricanes and flooding, which commonly affect Region 6, was developed using the data collected